Tracking the rain

WeatherMap Imelda update: The storm went easy on us last night, but we are only at halftime

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Good morning everyone. By and large the Houston metro area made it through last night unscathed. While I know people are already starting to label this storm a bust, we are really only at halftime here. Last night the storm progressed further inland than originally expected which is what raised my concern for heavy rain last night. Thankfully that did not develop over the city and most spots ended the day yesterday with very manageable rainfall totals in the 2-4 inch range. Further south though coastal areas of Brazoria and Matagorda counties got absolutely hammered. Spots near Freeport for example picked up 15-20 inches of rain yesterday. So with the first half in the books lets take a look at where things go from here.

From the time concern really began to rise regarding this storm back on Monday the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning period was really the period we were most worried about. This morning the center of the storm has broadened as it "unwinds" now that it is over land, however this does not mean the rainfall potential decreases. On radar we can see that the center is near The Woodlands and strong bands of storms extend well to the south along the coast and curve back up into the Beaumont area.


10 AM radarCollege of DuPage

Over the course of the day today and into tonight I expect coverage of heavy rain to move further inland as the center continues pulling off to the north. Two of the high resolution short range models we use have continued to show an intense band of storms developing along the I-10 corridor between Houston and Beaumont late this afternoon and into tonight. We will have to watch how this develops as the afternoon commute could be impacted.

One model's simulated radar Wednesday morning thru Thursday lunch time.Weathermodels.com


Another model's simulated radar for Wednesday morning thru Thursday evening.


Foretasted accumulations through Thursday evening from the model in the image above


If this band does indeed develop and parks itself over the wrong place flooding will be a concern. With these models try not to focus on pinpoint locations, rather look at the general idea that another round of heavy rain is still in the cards. While it does appear that the most likely location for for bombs of very high accumulations has shifted a bit to the east, say east of HWY 59, it is not time to let or guard down yet.

I know people are itching to say this storm amounted to nothing but hype, but it would be unwise to declare it dead yet. This area has a history of storms that bring a light first punch only to return with a knockout blow a day or two later. While I am in no way comparing the impacts of this storm to Harvey or Allison it is important to remember that both of those storms had people declaring them busts halfway through before the second round came. If by Thursday night all is well, I will personally declare Imelda a bust, but we are not there yet.


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Texans fall to Browns. Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images.

The Houston Texans kept it closer than the experts thought they would, but couldn't pull out a victory. Here are 11 observations from the loss in Cleveland to the Browns.

1. The game looks totally different if Texans quarterback Tyrod Taylor finishes the game. Taylor left at halftime with a hamstring injury. He was playing exceptionally well against his former team. Taylor is not expected to play Thursday according to NFL Network.

2. Davis Mills had a rocky NFL debut which was to be expected. Mills looked to have the wrong elements of a few plays. He also couldn't hit backup wideout Andre Roberts over the middle and threw an interception. It was a fine performance considering what Mills showed he could do in the preseason.

3. Mills didn't work with a full load of offensive weapons in the second half. Rookie wideout Nico Collins didn't return to the game after his lone catch and big run early in the game. Veteran slot receiver Danny Amendola left the game with an injury. Tight end Anthony Auclair left with an eye injury. The Texans entered the game without wide receiver Anthony Miller who was inactive.

4. Brandin Cooks is a monster through two games. He is the most dangerous skill position player on the team, and defenses still have trouble covering him and staying with him. Cooks turned in yet another impressive day for this team and hauled in a Davis Mills touchdown pass.

5. The Browns did a solid job against the ground game of the Texans. Mark Ingram averaged under three yards per carry and Tyrod Taylor was the only rusher to have a big play on the ground. This led to a fair number of third-and-long situations which the Texans usually had trouble converting.

6. Justin Reid was set to increase his payday on his next contract with his early play. Reid forced a fumble and had an interception in the first half. Unfortunately, Reid would leave the game multiple times with injuries. The knock on Reid has always been his health.

7. The Texans were worn down by the Browns rushing attack all day. Once Cleveland committed to the run they saw the success of their work culminating in a 26-yard scamper by Nick Chubb for a touchdown. The Browns didn't run as much as I excepted them to run early.

8. Tim Kelly had another nice day calling plays. Kelly remains creative in finding ways to get the ball out of Taylor's hands quickly as well as manufacturing matchups where the Texans can win and pick up yards. He even got creative to get Davis Mills a passing touchdown late in the game. Kelly has been very impressive through two games.

9. Andre Roberts was inexcusably bad today. The Texans defense held on the opening drive and his muffed punt eliminated the momentum from the defensive stand. He also had poor returns on kickoffs. His lone job is to be a solid returner, and he failed at that on Sunday.

10. David Culley had a head-scratching decision foregoing an offsides call on a third down. The head coach opted for the result of the third down, and a punt on fourth down, instead of another third down. He did not explain himself well postgame on the decision either.

11. The Texans hung tough and should feel solid about where they could have been without the injury to their quarterback. With no Taylor in the short week, it will not be easy to beat the Panthers who upset the Saints on Sunday.

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