Tracking the rain

WeatherMap Imelda update: The storm went easy on us last night, but we are only at halftime

WeatherMap Imelda update: The storm went easy on us last night, but we are only at halftime
College of DuPage

Good morning everyone. By and large the Houston metro area made it through last night unscathed. While I know people are already starting to label this storm a bust, we are really only at halftime here. Last night the storm progressed further inland than originally expected which is what raised my concern for heavy rain last night. Thankfully that did not develop over the city and most spots ended the day yesterday with very manageable rainfall totals in the 2-4 inch range. Further south though coastal areas of Brazoria and Matagorda counties got absolutely hammered. Spots near Freeport for example picked up 15-20 inches of rain yesterday. So with the first half in the books lets take a look at where things go from here.

From the time concern really began to rise regarding this storm back on Monday the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning period was really the period we were most worried about. This morning the center of the storm has broadened as it "unwinds" now that it is over land, however this does not mean the rainfall potential decreases. On radar we can see that the center is near The Woodlands and strong bands of storms extend well to the south along the coast and curve back up into the Beaumont area.


10 AM radarCollege of DuPage

Over the course of the day today and into tonight I expect coverage of heavy rain to move further inland as the center continues pulling off to the north. Two of the high resolution short range models we use have continued to show an intense band of storms developing along the I-10 corridor between Houston and Beaumont late this afternoon and into tonight. We will have to watch how this develops as the afternoon commute could be impacted.

One model's simulated radar Wednesday morning thru Thursday lunch time.Weathermodels.com


Another model's simulated radar for Wednesday morning thru Thursday evening.


Foretasted accumulations through Thursday evening from the model in the image above


If this band does indeed develop and parks itself over the wrong place flooding will be a concern. With these models try not to focus on pinpoint locations, rather look at the general idea that another round of heavy rain is still in the cards. While it does appear that the most likely location for for bombs of very high accumulations has shifted a bit to the east, say east of HWY 59, it is not time to let or guard down yet.

I know people are itching to say this storm amounted to nothing but hype, but it would be unwise to declare it dead yet. This area has a history of storms that bring a light first punch only to return with a knockout blow a day or two later. While I am in no way comparing the impacts of this storm to Harvey or Allison it is important to remember that both of those storms had people declaring them busts halfway through before the second round came. If by Thursday night all is well, I will personally declare Imelda a bust, but we are not there yet.


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The injuries keep piling up for Houston.Composite Getty Image.

The Astros didn’t leave Seattle with a series win, but they may have gained something just as important: a reminder that resilience still runs deep in this group.

After a grueling extra-inning loss on Saturday, one that included the loss of Isaac Paredes to a hamstring injury, Houston regrouped on Sunday and hammered the Mariners 11-3. Christian Walker provided the turning point with a much-needed go-ahead home run in the sixth inning, while Taylor Trammell added a two-run double and a solo shot of his own. With Chas McCormick back from the injured list but still finding his footing, Trammell is quickly making his case as the best option in center field moving forward.

Manager Joe Espada continues to juggle a lineup that’s been in constant flux. Rookie Cam Smith, who had a clutch two-run double in Sunday’s win, has struggled as of late, going just 2-for his last 24. While his ability to get hits in clutch situations has been extremely valuable, the lack of a consistent spot in the batting order may be taking its toll. Giving Smith a stable home in the cleanup spot, even temporarily, might be a helpful reset.

Then again, the cleanup role hasn’t been kind to everyone.

 

Walker has been markedly less effective when hitting fourth this season, a trend that continues despite his strong Sunday performance. Sometimes, the data is clear: the four-hole might not be for him. He's literally been the worst cleanup option in baseball this season. Hit him fifth.

Behind the plate, Victor Caratini continues to impress, while Yainer Diaz is back in a cold stretch. Since the break, Diaz is just 1-for-14, raising questions about his timing and confidence as the summer grind deepens.

On the mound, the biggest developments are happening off the field. Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti both completed three-inning rehab outings with Double-A Corpus Christi, while Luis Garcia threw two innings in a rehab start with Low-A Fayetteville. The trio’s return could mark a major turning point for the Astros, especially as Lance McCullers continues to struggle in his own comeback. McCullers lasted just 2 2/3 innings in Saturday’s loss, allowing four runs and showing little of the form that once made him one of the rotation’s anchors.

There’s been hesitancy to replace McCullers with someone like Arrighetti while he’s still building back arm strength, but the argument grows thinner each time McCullers falters. If healthy, even a three- or four-inning version of Javier or Arrighetti could give Houston more consistency at the back of the rotation.

Despite the weekend loss, the Astros still hold one of the best offenses in baseball, second in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 11th in slugging. The pitching staff remains stout, ranking sixth in ERA and second in WHIP. This team is far from unraveling.

With reinforcements on the way and a lineup that’s still capable of putting up crooked numbers, the Astros aren’t panicking. If anything, Sunday’s blowout win showed they’re ready to weather whatever’s next.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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