Gambling recap

Week 10: The Rams were Savages

The Rams made life tough on Tom Savage. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Through two quarters, the Texans looked like a team that could pull off the win as a double-digit underdog going into the intermission only down 9-7. It was only a matter of time before the Rams would break through and score 24 unanswered points in the second half.

Tom Savage had four turnovers on the day and only completed 50% of his passes, going 18-36 for 221 yards. The Rams play caller was the complete opposite in the closing half. Jared Goff went 14-of-17 for 251 yards in the half tacking on three scores. The game was quickly blown open after mistakes made by the backup quarterback and the Texans were never able to get back in it. The offense who once was so dynamic scoring 30 plus points in five straight games now seems hardly watchable. The Rams covered the -11 number comfortably after the public was all over them.

Most Bet Teams:

Patriots 91%

Lions 87%

Rams 84%

Steelers 81%

Cowboys 71%

Favorites went 8-5-1 ATS and 12-2 straight up in Week 10. The favorites continue to dominate and now are caught up at 68-68-7 on the year. This week only two teams won their game straight up as underdogs (Packers, 49ers).

Biggest Favorites to cover

Rams - 11

The Rams were bet up all the way to -13 by kickoff with 84% of the bets pouring in on the home team. L.A covered comfortably blowing the doors open in the second half with a final score 33-7. The under 45 also cashed as the Texans failed to score in the closing half.

Lions -10

After being spotted 10 points, the Browns did Cleveland-like things and collapsed. They came out playing like an inspired team and jumped out to an early ten point lead. Things changed quickly as Matthew Stafford led the Lions on a drive, that was capped by an 8 yard Ameer Abdullah run to tie the game 10-10. What looked to be an easy cover for first half Cleveland backers with +6.5 tickets, quickly turned into a migraine. Detriot's Nevin Lawson stripped the ball from the Browns tight end and ran it back for a 44-yard defensive score to take the 17-10 lead late in the second quarter. Browns fans and backers decided in taking unexpected restroom breaks reminiscing of the first quarter, to be startlingly surprised by a DeShone Kizer run down inside the 5 of the Lions, giving life to the halftime wager. What happened next is something you would do to your friend at the end of a video game, where you would knock the controller out of his hand and watch him go crazy as time expired. This, is exactly, what happened when the Browns failed to convert. For some odd reason, they chose to run a quarterback sneak from outside the two-yard line and watched time expire as they failed to get another snap off. If you were to bet opposite of the Browns all year for the first half and full game this year you would be 13-5 ATS.

Biggest Underdog to Cover

Packers +5 (+190)

Just six days out from looking disastrous vs. the Lions in a prime-time matchup, Packers quarterback Brett Hundley led Green Bay to a road win as an underdog. After a shaky start and a red zone turnover, Hundley went 10-of-13 for 126 yards and a touchdown in the second half. The talk of this game will be the challenge by Bears Coach John Fox on a play that was called down just shy of the goal line. After the challenge ruled that Benny Cunningham indeed stayed in bounds, it showed he lost control of the ball before crossing the pylon resulting in a touchback. This might go down as one of the worst challenges of all time.

Totals:

The Over/Under was 8-6 in week 10 and is now 74-71-1 in 2017.

Play Action or Pass went 3-4-1 in week 10. The Browns loss was the difference this week, or at least it felt that way after the way it played out ending with a DeShone Kizer interception to Darius Slay in the end zone killing the back door cover. We are 13-13-2 for the year.

Browns +11   LOSS

Rams -11   WIN

Buffalo: +3 LOSS

Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43  LOSS

Steelers Team Total over 27.5   LOSS

Teasers 7 points:

Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2   WIN

Patriots -.5/ Rams-4   WIN

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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All 3 major sports teams in Houston appear to be in good hands.Composite image by Jack Brame.

Houston is a strange sports town, professionally speaking. Football is the undisputed king. That's evidenced by the undying love fans show the Texans. Baseball is second, even though the Astros most recently gave the city a title and have given them a consistent winner to cheer for since 2015. Basketball is a clear third, since fans won't show up to a Rockets' playoff game until after the game has started.

At one point, all three teams were competitive and provided the city with a good deal of excitement. They also had competent general managers, though not all at once. The Texans had Rick Smith, who some say was hit or miss, but he was by far the team’s best GM in their history. The measuring stick isn’t very high, but Smith normally hit on 1st rounders. Jeff Luhnow was in charge of the turnaround for the Astros. His work environment may have been contentious according to rumors, but he brought the city a World Series and built a consistent contender. Daryl Morey may have left a hot mess, but the Rockets were always in the playoffs. He was able to keep a winning team, while reshaping the roster.

Fast-forward to today, and the city has a competent GM in every major pro sports team at the same time. James Click has kept the Astros on the winning track. While the penalties for the sign stealing scandal were hefty, he’s managed to make some shrewd moves. Signing Yordan Alvarez before he hit arbitration and free agency was huge! If he can get Kyle Tucker locked up as well, he’s definitely on the right track. Not going crazy over losing key guys and trusting his process has paid off handsomely so far.

Rafael Stone has had the best luck of all. It started very rocky for him by having to deal James Harden and Russell Westbrook at the beginning of his tenure. The return on investment was initially laughed at and thought to be pennies on the dollar.

Considering they drafted four 19-year-olds last draft (headlined by Jalen Green who looks like the real deal), taking a chance on Kevin Porter Jr, landing Jabari Smith Jr in this draft (Tari Eason not to be forgotten), and the inevitable collapse of the Nets, I think Stone has done well for himself. He may not have had the ideal background for the job (he was a lawyer by trade), he’s done well so far in trying to build this team back into a contender. If these kids develop and grow together, I think they can be what Boston and Golden State have been: a homegrown team contending year in and year out.

Nick Caserio of the Texans had perhaps the tallest mountain to climb. The quarterback position is the most important. He inherited one of the best young QBs in the league, but he also inherited his desire to leave and his alleged bizarre fetish that led to civil lawsuits. Some thought the haul he got was fair, while others thought it wasn’t enough. Did I mention his predecessor left the team in cap hell? Through it all, Caserio has managed to turn this team around and has them headed in the right direction. If Davis Mills proves to be a competent QB, that’ll be HUGE! However, the draft capital they have moving forward will help them draft or trade for their franchise QB if Mills isn’t the guy.

While the Astros are the only team currently in contention, the Rockets and Texans are looking like they may not be too far behind if things continue going their way. I’d LOVE to have a sit-down with all three and talk about philosophy and strategy! Houston sports are in good hands with these guys. Here’s to hoping they keep it going!

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