The Rams made life tough on Tom Savage. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Through two quarters, the Texans looked like a team that could pull off the win as a double-digit underdog going into the intermission only down 9-7. It was only a matter of time before the Rams would break through and score 24 unanswered points in the second half.
Tom Savage had four turnovers on the day and only completed 50% of his passes, going 18-36 for 221 yards. The Rams play caller was the complete opposite in the closing half. Jared Goff went 14-of-17 for 251 yards in the half tacking on three scores. The game was quickly blown open after mistakes made by the backup quarterback and the Texans were never able to get back in it. The offense who once was so dynamic scoring 30 plus points in five straight games now seems hardly watchable. The Rams covered the -11 number comfortably after the public was all over them.
Most Bet Teams:
Patriots 91%
Lions 87%
Rams 84%
Steelers 81%
Cowboys 71%
Favorites went 8-5-1 ATS and 12-2 straight up in Week 10. The favorites continue to dominate and now are caught up at 68-68-7 on the year. This week only two teams won their game straight up as underdogs (Packers, 49ers).
Biggest Favorites to cover
Rams - 11
The Rams were bet up all the way to -13 by kickoff with 84% of the bets pouring in on the home team. L.A covered comfortably blowing the doors open in the second half with a final score 33-7. The under 45 also cashed as the Texans failed to score in the closing half.
Lions -10
After being spotted 10 points, the Browns did Cleveland-like things and collapsed. They came out playing like an inspired team and jumped out to an early ten point lead. Things changed quickly as Matthew Stafford led the Lions on a drive, that was capped by an 8 yard Ameer Abdullah run to tie the game 10-10. What looked to be an easy cover for first half Cleveland backers with +6.5 tickets, quickly turned into a migraine. Detriot's Nevin Lawson stripped the ball from the Browns tight end and ran it back for a 44-yard defensive score to take the 17-10 lead late in the second quarter. Browns fans and backers decided in taking unexpected restroom breaks reminiscing of the first quarter, to be startlingly surprised by a DeShone Kizer run down inside the 5 of the Lions, giving life to the halftime wager. What happened next is something you would do to your friend at the end of a video game, where you would knock the controller out of his hand and watch him go crazy as time expired. This, is exactly, what happened when the Browns failed to convert. For some odd reason, they chose to run a quarterback sneak from outside the two-yard line and watched time expire as they failed to get another snap off. If you were to bet opposite of the Browns all year for the first half and full game this year you would be 13-5 ATS.
Biggest Underdog to Cover
Packers +5 (+190)
Just six days out from looking disastrous vs. the Lions in a prime-time matchup, Packers quarterback Brett Hundley led Green Bay to a road win as an underdog. After a shaky start and a red zone turnover, Hundley went 10-of-13 for 126 yards and a touchdown in the second half. The talk of this game will be the challenge by Bears Coach John Fox on a play that was called down just shy of the goal line. After the challenge ruled that Benny Cunningham indeed stayed in bounds, it showed he lost control of the ball before crossing the pylon resulting in a touchback. This might go down as one of the worst challenges of all time.
Totals:
The Over/Under was 8-6 in week 10 and is now 74-71-1 in 2017.
Play Action or Pass went 3-4-1 in week 10. The Browns loss was the difference this week, or at least it felt that way after the way it played out ending with a DeShone Kizer interception to Darius Slay in the end zone killing the back door cover. We are 13-13-2 for the year.
Browns +11 LOSS
Rams -11 WIN
Buffalo: +3 LOSS
Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43 LOSS
Steelers Team Total over 27.5 LOSS
Teasers 7 points:
Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2 WIN
Patriots -.5/ Rams-4 WIN
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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Here's what the next era of Astros baseball will look like
Dec 13, 2024, 8:31 pm
Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.