Gambling recap

Week 10: The Rams were Savages

The Rams made life tough on Tom Savage. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Through two quarters, the Texans looked like a team that could pull off the win as a double-digit underdog going into the intermission only down 9-7. It was only a matter of time before the Rams would break through and score 24 unanswered points in the second half.

Tom Savage had four turnovers on the day and only completed 50% of his passes, going 18-36 for 221 yards. The Rams play caller was the complete opposite in the closing half. Jared Goff went 14-of-17 for 251 yards in the half tacking on three scores. The game was quickly blown open after mistakes made by the backup quarterback and the Texans were never able to get back in it. The offense who once was so dynamic scoring 30 plus points in five straight games now seems hardly watchable. The Rams covered the -11 number comfortably after the public was all over them.

Most Bet Teams:

Patriots 91%

Lions 87%

Rams 84%

Steelers 81%

Cowboys 71%

Favorites went 8-5-1 ATS and 12-2 straight up in Week 10. The favorites continue to dominate and now are caught up at 68-68-7 on the year. This week only two teams won their game straight up as underdogs (Packers, 49ers).

Biggest Favorites to cover

Rams - 11

The Rams were bet up all the way to -13 by kickoff with 84% of the bets pouring in on the home team. L.A covered comfortably blowing the doors open in the second half with a final score 33-7. The under 45 also cashed as the Texans failed to score in the closing half.

Lions -10

After being spotted 10 points, the Browns did Cleveland-like things and collapsed. They came out playing like an inspired team and jumped out to an early ten point lead. Things changed quickly as Matthew Stafford led the Lions on a drive, that was capped by an 8 yard Ameer Abdullah run to tie the game 10-10. What looked to be an easy cover for first half Cleveland backers with +6.5 tickets, quickly turned into a migraine. Detriot's Nevin Lawson stripped the ball from the Browns tight end and ran it back for a 44-yard defensive score to take the 17-10 lead late in the second quarter. Browns fans and backers decided in taking unexpected restroom breaks reminiscing of the first quarter, to be startlingly surprised by a DeShone Kizer run down inside the 5 of the Lions, giving life to the halftime wager. What happened next is something you would do to your friend at the end of a video game, where you would knock the controller out of his hand and watch him go crazy as time expired. This, is exactly, what happened when the Browns failed to convert. For some odd reason, they chose to run a quarterback sneak from outside the two-yard line and watched time expire as they failed to get another snap off. If you were to bet opposite of the Browns all year for the first half and full game this year you would be 13-5 ATS.

Biggest Underdog to Cover

Packers +5 (+190)

Just six days out from looking disastrous vs. the Lions in a prime-time matchup, Packers quarterback Brett Hundley led Green Bay to a road win as an underdog. After a shaky start and a red zone turnover, Hundley went 10-of-13 for 126 yards and a touchdown in the second half. The talk of this game will be the challenge by Bears Coach John Fox on a play that was called down just shy of the goal line. After the challenge ruled that Benny Cunningham indeed stayed in bounds, it showed he lost control of the ball before crossing the pylon resulting in a touchback. This might go down as one of the worst challenges of all time.

Totals:

The Over/Under was 8-6 in week 10 and is now 74-71-1 in 2017.

Play Action or Pass went 3-4-1 in week 10. The Browns loss was the difference this week, or at least it felt that way after the way it played out ending with a DeShone Kizer interception to Darius Slay in the end zone killing the back door cover. We are 13-13-2 for the year.

Browns +11   LOSS

Rams -11   WIN

Buffalo: +3 LOSS

Vikings/ Redskins: Under 43  LOSS

Steelers Team Total over 27.5   LOSS

Teasers 7 points:

Patriots -.5/ Panthers-2   WIN

Patriots -.5/ Rams-4   WIN

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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A WEEKLY REVIEW OF CRENNEL'S COACHING

Now my job: Texans feast on Lions

Photo by Getty Images.

Thanksgiving is full of tradition. There's the typical family gathering, large meal, and of course, football. Sometimes, new traditions are added and old ones are retired. I think the Texans did both in their impressive 41-25 win over the Lions in Detroit. Old traditions were carried on (Lions losing on Thanksgiving), some were put to rest (Texans not being able to get turnovers), and new ones were started (multiple passing touchdowns by Deshaun Watson in six straight games).

The fact that this defense got three turnovers in the game was unbelievable! They got all three in the first quarter within the span of eight plays. JJ Watt's pick-six was insane. He went for a batted ball, ended up catching it, and ran it in. They forced Jonathan Williams to fumble on the Lions' very next play from scrimmage and recovered it. On the Lions' next possession, the Texans recovered yet another fumble after the challenge was reversed. Great call by the coaching staff to challenge and win. The defense looked good. Tyrell Adams stood out because he was in on those two fumbles, made 17 total tackles with 14 of them being solo tackles. They also brought pressure that seemed to make Matthew Stafford very inaccurate and resulted in four sacks. I give defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver credit for knowing he needs to blitz to get pressure, but the run defense has to improve.

The offense kept the tempo up in this game as well. The spread and hurry-up were used to keep the Lions already staggered defense off balance. Knowing the Lions were without a couple defensive backs, I thought it would be the perfect marriage of their defense and the Texans' offense. A buddy asked before the game about the line (Texans -3.5) and the over/under (52.5). I told him bet the Texans and the over because neither team can play defense and both have good quarterbacks. Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly put together another good game plan and Watson executed it flawlessly. One route combo I saw later on in the game I particularly enjoyed. Two receivers were tight to the left side. Cooks ran a hook/curl and settled in the middle of the zone while Fuller ran a vertical route. Duke Johnson ran a swing route to that same side. It left Cooks wide open as the attention went to Johnson in the flat, Fuller deep, and the action to the other play side. Route combos are important because it gives the quarterback different reads as he goes through his progressions and lets him pick apart the defense based on what he sees. Combine that with Watson's play and the way Kelly has changed his play calling now that he's liberated from he who shall not be named, we're seeing a beautiful thing.

As good as things were, there's still room for improvement. The defense gives up way too many easy yards, both run and pass. They can't get pressure bringing only four and will often give up big plays if the blitz is picked up. Plus the run defense is still an issue as evidenced by the Lions' first possession of the second half. The Lions ran the ball 10 plays straight for a total of 58 yards on that drive. Utterly ridiculous! Watson was good (17/25 318 yards and four touchdowns), but he missed two more touchdowns with passes slightly off, and continues to hold onto the ball too long at times. The difference between these two issues I've presented here is the fact that Watson has so played well, his "issues" are minor and very correctable, while the defense is terrible and there's no easy fix in sight. But let Romeo Crennel and Anthony Weaver tell it, they're getting the most out of these guys and they're playing disciplined.

The thought that this team may actually creep into the playoff picture may take shape better after next week if they can beat the Colts. I doubt it, but it is getting interesting. Let's see what else happens around them because they need help getting there.

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