GAMBLING RECAP

Week 12: Playing favoritism pays off

Seth Livingston
Jerry Bo
Nov 28, 2017, 1:00 pm
Tom Brady and the Patriots covered again. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

The holiday season is upon us, so don't play favorites when fancying gifts. Have an open mind and give from the heart.

In the the world of NFL gambling, doing the complete opposite has been the formula for cashing tickets lately. Playing teams favored and using the "what have you done for me lately mindset," has shown to be profitable.

Favorites have been on an extraordinary 54-24-7 run since the start of Week 7.  Just in November, teams favored are 37-15-4, closing the best month for favorites covering the spread, in the super bowl era.

Sunday, followed the model, as favorites went a remarkable 12-3-1 ATS in week 12. Favorites took a commanding lead vs. the number in 2017, leading the way 89-74-9.

After the dust of the first 11 games settled, the books were headed to a Sunday bloody Sunday. Teams favored started the day 9-2 ATS, with the Patriots and Eagles who were heavy public favorites, covering the double-digit spreads. As the first set of games came to a close, the books were sweltering. The Patriots scored a late touchdown in the final seven minutes of the game to push the lead to 35-17, while the Eagles were cruising vs. the Bears. Needing a public favorite to lose, the attention of bookmakers turned to the Panthers vs. Jets game. Then, a fumble returned for a touchdown by linebacker Luke Kuechly and a late Graham Gano field goal, and Joe Public was eating filet mignon for lunch. The bookmakers did get some slight help with the Bills winning outright, and in the later games, the Cardinals upset the Jaguars. The savior to a horrible day for the books came in the Sunday night game, where the Packers came up short 28-31 but were able to keep the game close as 14 point underdogs.

Biggest underdogs to win

Bills +9 (+320)  16-10

Cardinals +6 (+230) 27-24

Biggest favorites to cover

Patriots (-16.5) 35-17

Eagles (-13.5) 31-3

Falcons (-10)  34-20

Play action or pass went 2-5-2 in Week 12. One game kept us from being great as we hade our teasers tied to the Steelers. The Sunday night game was the difference from ending 7-0-2. We are now 22-21-4 on the year.

Ravens-7     PUSH

Panthers-4  WIN

Colts +4 (bought the hook) PUSH

Falcons TT over 30 WIN

xSteelers-7/Jags+2   LOSS

Steelers-7/Eagles-6.5    LOSS

Chiefs PK/ Steelers-4/Patriots   LOSS

Steelers-4/Eagles-3.5/Bengals+2  LOSS

Steelers-4/FalconsPK/Eagles-3.5  LOSS

Totals

Bookmakers have been extremely sharp when putting out totals. The over-under was 7-9 in week 12 and is 88-86-2 for the year. The Monday night primetime game went under if you got the number late (39.5) and -7.5. Many bettors were able to get in their wagers at o/u 39 and -7, Proving how valuable the half point is off the key number 7. Primetime games this year have been quite profitable for over bettors, sitting at 23-15( 60.5%) through week 12.

We are getting close to the end of the year, here are the Pre-Season Win totals according to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook for future wagers.

 

 

ESPN Power Rankings

1)Eagles

2Patriots

3)Rams

4)Steelers

5)Vikings

Super Bowl Odds

New England Patriots    +250

Philadelphia Eagles    +350

Pittsburgh Steelers    +600

New Orleans Saints    +1200

Minnesota Vikings    +1200

Atlanta Falcons    +1200

Los Angeles Rams    +1400

Carolina Panthers    +1800

Seattle Seahawks    +2200

Kansas City Chiefs    +3300

Los Angeles Chargers    +3300

Jacksonville Jaguars    +4000

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

Houston is falling down the rankings

Tigers pound Odorizzi, Astros with homers as Houston drops fourth in a row

The Astros have not looked great in their last four games. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

After watching their hot start of 6-1 cool down to a 6-4 record with three straight losses, the Astros returned to Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night, looking to do a better job at home against a beatable Tigers team.

Recent games' woes would continue, though, with Houston's pitching getting blasted by the opposing offense and their own bats primarily quiet.

Final Score: Tigers 8, Astros 2

Astros' Record: 6-5, tied for second in AL West

Winning Pitcher: Matthew Boyd (2-1)

Losing Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi (0-1)

Astros score first, then Tigers unload on Odorizzi

Houston looked to have something brewing in the bottom of the second, with three singles in the first four batters of the inning, the third an RBI-single by Myles Straw to put the Astros in front 1-0. However, Matthew Boyd would limit the damage, getting back-to-back strikeouts to end the threat.

After two easy innings for Jake Odorizzi in his regular-season debut for his new team, he would allow a game-tying solo homer to Akil Baddoo, his fourth of the year, in the top of the third. Detroit struck again in the top of the fourth, getting a leadoff double to set up a two-run go-ahead home run to jump ahead 3-1.

They didn't stop there, getting another two-run bomb later in the same inning; a frame that would take Odorizzi 31 pitches to get only one out before Houston would bring in Bryan Abreu to get the last two outs. Odorizzi's final line in his debut: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, 80 P.


Detroit continues home run parade, Houston loses fourth in a row

Abreu would hope to do what Luis Garcia did the night before, eat up as many innings as possible after a poor outing from Houston's starter. The Tigers would get yet another two-run homer, though, in the top of the fifth, extending their lead to 7-1, with all seven runs coming over a three-inning span. For good measure, they'd knock one more out with two outs in the top of the ninth, making it 8-1.

As far as Houston at the plate, other than their string of hits to bring in a run earlier in the second, they were getting nothing done against Boyd, who would go six and two-thirds innings. Detroit's bullpen would finish things off, despite an all-too-late sac fly by the Astros in the bottom of the ninth, with Houston dropping their fourth-straight game and continuing to lose ground in the division.

Up Next: The finale of this three-game set with Detroit will be an hour earlier on Wednesday, getting underway at 6:10 PM Central. Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 1.80 ERA) will try to maintain his perfect record and improve upon his two five-inning one-run starts for the Astros, going opposite of Michael Fulmer (0-0, 2.57 ERA) for the Tigers.

From Your Site Articles
Related Articles Around the Web
astros recap astros score astros vs tigers tigers score tigers recap jake odorizzi odirizzi debut matthew boyd astros

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome