Week 12: Playing favoritism pays off
The holiday season is upon us, so don't play favorites when fancying gifts. Have an open mind and give from the heart.
In the the world of NFL gambling, doing the complete opposite has been the formula for cashing tickets lately. Playing teams favored and using the "what have you done for me lately mindset," has shown to be profitable.
Favorites have been on an extraordinary 54-24-7 run since the start of Week 7. Just in November, teams favored are 37-15-4, closing the best month for favorites covering the spread, in the super bowl era.
Sunday, followed the model, as favorites went a remarkable 12-3-1 ATS in week 12. Favorites took a commanding lead vs. the number in 2017, leading the way 89-74-9.
After the dust of the first 11 games settled, the books were headed to a Sunday bloody Sunday. Teams favored started the day 9-2 ATS, with the Patriots and Eagles who were heavy public favorites, covering the double-digit spreads. As the first set of games came to a close, the books were sweltering. The Patriots scored a late touchdown in the final seven minutes of the game to push the lead to 35-17, while the Eagles were cruising vs. the Bears. Needing a public favorite to lose, the attention of bookmakers turned to the Panthers vs. Jets game. Then, a fumble returned for a touchdown by linebacker Luke Kuechly and a late Graham Gano field goal, and Joe Public was eating filet mignon for lunch. The bookmakers did get some slight help with the Bills winning outright, and in the later games, the Cardinals upset the Jaguars. The savior to a horrible day for the books came in the Sunday night game, where the Packers came up short 28-31 but were able to keep the game close as 14 point underdogs.
Biggest underdogs to win
Bills +9 (+320) 16-10
Cardinals +6 (+230) 27-24
Biggest favorites to cover
Patriots (-16.5) 35-17
Eagles (-13.5) 31-3
Falcons (-10) 34-20
Play action or pass went 2-5-2 in Week 12. One game kept us from being great as we hade our teasers tied to the Steelers. The Sunday night game was the difference from ending 7-0-2. We are now 22-21-4 on the year.
Colts +4 (bought the hook) PUSH
Falcons TT over 30 WIN
Chiefs PK/ Steelers-4/Patriots LOSS
Bookmakers have been extremely sharp when putting out totals. The over-under was 7-9 in week 12 and is 88-86-2 for the year. The Monday night primetime game went under if you got the number late (39.5) and -7.5. Many bettors were able to get in their wagers at o/u 39 and -7, Proving how valuable the half point is off the key number 7. Primetime games this year have been quite profitable for over bettors, sitting at 23-15( 60.5%) through week 12.
We are getting close to the end of the year, here are the Pre-Season Win totals according to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook for future wagers.
New England Patriots +250
Philadelphia Eagles +350
Pittsburgh Steelers +600
New Orleans Saints +1200
Minnesota Vikings +1200
Atlanta Falcons +1200
Los Angeles Rams +1400
Carolina Panthers +1800
Seattle Seahawks +2200
Kansas City Chiefs +3300
Los Angeles Chargers +3300
Jacksonville Jaguars +4000