Photo by Paul Muth.
Week one power rankings usually never mean anything. There's a reason that baseball plays over 100 games, and this past week the KBO did a great job of either introducing or simply reminding everyone of how chaotic the league is. Because of the lack of bullpen depth across the league, no lead is safe. It's not always fun for fans of the specific team that it happens to, but it makes for a more interesting game for the rest of us.
Last week we started to see teams settle into their identities. The Lotte Giants cooled off something fierce, while the Kia Tigers and LG Twins shook off their slow starts. Meanwhile, the NC Dinos have just been finding ways to win all along.
1. NC Dinos (10-1); previous week rank - 3
The Dinos are the toughest out in the KBO at the moment. The Dinos put together 3 extra innings wins in one week, which is more strain anyone's heart needs in that short amount of time. They're currently riding a 6 game win streak thanks in part to Sung Bum-Na's 3 home runs this week alone (one of which was the league's first walkoff Dino-Dinger). The Dinos have a tough start to the week against the defending champ Doosan Bears, but then it eases up against the Hanwha Eagles.
2. LG Twins (7-4); previous week rank - 5
The Twins started the week 2-3 and ended it 7-4, so you could say they figured some stuff out. Taking on the league-worst SK Wyverns is sure to do that for any team, but following that up with a series win against last year's Korean Series runner-up is a good sign that things are headed in the right direction. Nothing says KBO-ness more than their Tuesday victory, scoring 14 runs without a single home run. Starting pitcher Casey Kelly turned in a solid performance Saturday with 6 innings of 3 hit baseball. The Twins schedule looks pretty favorable as they match up with two sub .500 clubs this week (Lions and Wiz).
3. Doosan Bears (7-4); previous week rank - 4
The Bears are almost as exhausting to watch as the Dinos. They sport the league's best offense, but it's paired with the league's worst bullpen. They've yet to lose a series this season, but they also haven't swept anyone. First baseman Oh Jae-Il has been on a tear, batting .408 last week with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs. The Bears have an opportunity to gain some serious early season ground on the Dinos beginning tomorrow, before they finish the week against the unimpressive Lions.
4. Lotte Giants (7-4); previous week rank - 1
The Lotte Giants had nowhere to go but down last week, and that's exactly what they did. Dropping a series against the Bears is understandable, but to follow it up by dropping a series to the sub .500 eagles will get you dropped in the power rankings. Son Ah-seop was out of his mind at the plate last week batting .608 despite last week's 2-4 record. This week they'll look to get back on track against the Tigers and the Heroes.
5. Kiwoom Heroes (7-5); previous week rank - 2
Kiwoom found themselves in a similar situation as the Giants, taking a solid first week and squandering it. The offense just isn't really there at the moment, as evidence last Wednesday when they were shut out against the 9th place Lions. This week Kiwoom should be able to get back on track, with an easy series against a Wyverns team on a 9 game losing streak. They'll follow that up with a statement series against the Lotte Giants.
6. Kia Tigers (5-7); previous rank - 8
The Tigers made up some ground this week, due in large part to the bat of former Astro Preston Tucker. En route to a 13-4 victory against the Bears, Tucker went 4-4 with a home run and 7 RBIs. That's impressive at any level. Unfortunately, the rest of the offense has yet to catch up to Tucker's blistering pace, and they remain a sub .500 team. If they can take the series from the Giants to begin the week, the following series against the Wyverns could start some positive momentum to push them back into the win column.
7. Hanwha Eagles (5-7); previous rank - 7
The Eagles inexplicably finished last week with a solid series win against the Giants. They are the second worst offense in the league, and the fact that they've even won 5 games is pretty surprising. They have a fairly even match up to start the week against the KT Wiz, before they travel to take on the league leading NC Dinos later in the week.
8. KT Wiz (4-7); previous week - 9
The Wiz seem to be the most unlucky team so far to start the season. They're second in the league in runs scored, and still only have 4 wins to show. That's baseball for ya. That's the KBO for ya. They should be able to gain some ground early in the week against the Eagles, but we'll see if that gives them any momentum when they take on the LG Twins later on in the week.
9. Samsung Lions (4-8); previous week - 6
I don't think the Lions will be down here for that long. They're not very good at the moment, but they're not this bad. This week probably won't be the one that they make up any ground through, as they take on the LG Twins and the Doosan Bears. Maybe next week fellas.
10. SK Wyverns (1-10); previous rank - 10
Meet your 2019 Orioles. These guys are in for a long season.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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