GAME PREVIEW
Critical x-factors that could tilt Houston-Gonzaga in Cougars' favor
Mar 21, 2025, 1:53 pm
The Coogs are back in action on Saturday night. Photo by David Becker/Getty Images.
Wichita, Kansas – Saturday, 8:40 p.m. EDT
The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars (31-4) take on the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-8) in a highly anticipated second-round showdown of the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars, dominant in the Big 12 with a 22-1 record, bring the nation’s top-ranked defense to the court, while the Bulldogs, the West Coast Conference powerhouse, counter with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
Defense vs. offense: The ultimate battle
Houston boasts the best defense in the Big 12, holding opponents to just 57.9 points per game on 38.1% shooting. The Cougars will be tasked with slowing down a Gonzaga squad that averages 84.6 points per game over its last 10 outings and shoots an impressive 50.1% from the field.
On the other side, Houston’s offense is averaging 72.1 points per game in its last 10 contests, a figure that will be tested against a Gonzaga defense allowing 67.6 points per game. The Cougars have a slight edge from beyond the arc, making 8.1 three-pointers per game compared to Gonzaga’s 7.3 allowed.
Key players to watch
For Houston, LJ Cryer has been the go-to scorer, averaging 15.2 points per game, while Milos Uzan has stepped up recently, contributing 14.7 points over the last 10 games. The Cougars will also lean on their defensive intensity and ability to force turnovers to disrupt Gonzaga’s rhythm.
Gonzaga is led by Graham Ike, who is averaging 17 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Khalif Battle has also been a key contributor, posting 15.3 points and 1.6 steals per game in the past 10 contests. The Bulldogs’ ball movement will be crucial, as they average 20.4 assists per game in their last 10 contests, a stark contrast to Houston’s 9.0.
Game outlook
Houston enters as a 5.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 140.5 points. If the Cougars can impose their defensive will and limit Gonzaga’s transition game, they stand a strong chance of advancing. However, if the Bulldogs find their offensive groove early, Houston may be in for its toughest test of the tournament so far.
Expect an intense, physical battle where the team that dictates the tempo will likely punch its ticket to the Sweet 16.
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Just one week ago, it looked like the Astros’ bats might finally be waking up. There was a noticeable uptick in offensive numbers, optimism in the air, and a belief creeping in that Houston could be on the verge of an offensive breakthrough. But if there was any momentum building, it collapsed over the past week.
In their latest seven-game stretch, the Astros were near the bottom of the league in virtually every key offensive metric — 24th in runs scored, 27th in OPS (.610), and 26th in slugging percentage (.337). These numbers aren't just a one-week blip. They are more aligned with the team’s season-long struggles, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the Astros are simply off to a slow start. The numbers don’t lie: 25th in home runs (39), 20th in OPS (.689), 23rd in slugging (.372), and 20th in total runs.
The hope was that Houston’s offense would eventually climb into the top 10. That no longer feels realistic. What’s becoming clearer each week is that this is a bottom-third offense — and the only thing keeping them competitive is elite pitching.
Pitching keeps the ship afloat
While the bats have sputtered, the arms have delivered. The Astros currently rank 7th in team ERA (3.39), 1st in WHIP (1.12), and 2nd in opponent batting average (.212). That’s championship-caliber stuff. But as the American League hierarchy takes shape, it’s worth noting that contenders like the Yankees and Tigers boast both top-five pitching and offense — a balance the Astros currently can’t come close to matching.
Core hitters going quiet
So what’s wrong with the offense? Much of it comes down to three players who were supposed to be key contributors: Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. All three rank in the bottom 30 in MLB in OPS.
For Altuve, the struggles are especially glaring. The month of May has been a black hole for the veteran. He has yet to hit a home run or drive in a run this month. His season numbers (.241/.296/.646) are troubling enough, but the trend line is even worse:
- Last 7 games: .148 AVG / .233 OBP / .185 SLG
- Last 15 games: .175 AVG / .242 OBP / .228 SLG
- Last 30 games: .193 AVG / .256 OBP / .272 SLG
That last stretch has Altuve ranked with the 8th worst OPS (.537) in all of baseball over the last month.
Yet despite the slump — and a 35-year-old body showing signs of wear — Altuve continues to be penciled into the lineup almost daily. Even after missing a game on May 11th with hamstring tightness, he returned the next day. Manager Joe Espada’s reluctance to give Altuve extended rest is becoming a storyline of its own. If he continues to produce at this level, it will be hard to justify keeping him at the top of the lineup.
Rotation takes a blow
The week delivered more bad news — this time on the injury front. The Astros announced that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will miss the remainder of the season and require Tommy John surgery. What makes the injury particularly frustrating is that the signs were there. Decreased velocity led to a longer rest period, but in his return start, the team allowed him to throw 40 pitches in the first inning. That start would be his last of the season.
With Wesneski out, the pressure now shifts to Lance McCullers, whose return was once seen as a bonus but now feels like a necessity. Spencer Arrighetti’s comeback becomes more critical as well. The Astros' rotation has depth, but the margin for error just got thinner.
The road ahead
The American League isn’t dominated by a juggernaut, which gives the Astros some breathing room. But the Yankees and Tigers are pulling away in terms of balance and consistency — the very thing Houston has lacked.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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