Paul Muth
What does the season hold for the Rockets? It all starts tonight
Oct 17, 2018, 2:53 pm
James Harden and the Rockets have big goals. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
If you blinked, you just missed the entire NBA off-season. But to be honest, if your only memories of the Rockets 2017-2018 campaign still center around their forgettable Western Conference Finals game seven exit, it's probably best that we push through to a brand new season and leave those 27 consecutive missed three-pointers in the past where they belong.
The Rockets’ new season kicks off tonight at the Toyota Center against the New Orleans Pelicans. Now there's probably a significant amount of people out there where that information is breaking news to. I get it. The Astros are probably your main focus at the moment, and rightfully so. Luckily for you, I've been thawed out from my basketball cryogenic stasis just in time to get your mind right for some sweet, sweet shooty hoops.
What happened last year?
The Rockets face-smushed the entire league, that's what. Led by the eventual league MVP James Harden and new running mate Chris Paul, Houston dismantled opposing teams with lights out shooting and improved focus on defense. They ripped off winning streaks of 10 or more games three separate times en route to the best regular season record in the NBA, the number one seed in the Western Conference Playoffs, and a franchise record for wins in a single season at 65. So yeah, they did ok.
The Rockets cruised past the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz in the first two rounds of the postseason, winning both series four games to one. Only then did they square off with the Golden State Warriors. Both teams traded wins in the first four games, but it was Houston who would come out on top in game five. It would come at a massive cost, as Paul would be lost to a hamstring injury for the remainder of the series. The depleted depth was too much for the Rockets to overcome and the Warriors came back to capture the series in game seven against an exhausted Houston team.
Key departures
As it turns out, the Rockets may have been too good for their own good. When you capture the best regular season record, other teams tend to look at who on the team helped you get there and wonder if they can help further their own interests.
Such was the case this off-season as long time Rocket Trevor Ariza was lured away by the Phoenix Suns with an offer Houston had no interest--or business for that matter--matching. Ariza's defense and ranged offense would be missed but it was assumed that backup small forward Luc Mbah a Moute would be able to step in and fill the role with minimal drop off.
That is, until Mbah a Moute bolted for the L.A. Clippers. Mbah a Moute had taken his one year minimum contract offered by General Manager Daryl Morey and successfully parlayed his 2017-2018 season’s performance into a bigger payday. Morey got great production for a bargain and Mbah a Moute earned a better contract. It was win-win. You can't argue with that, but now the Rockets were without a small forward.
Key additions
Morey quickly went to work to plug the suddenly gaping hole through a variety of moves. He started by initially signing defensive specialist James Ennis and followed that with an insanely low risk gamble by signing potential hall of famer, Carmelo Anthony, to a veteran's minimum deal. The two moves addressed the hole, and while it may not have brought back a perfectly identical return on talent compared to the previous season, it was certainly a savvy move in the right direction.
Then, just as everything had settled down, Morey waved his sabermetric wand and did what most deemed impossible: he found a trade partner willing to take on the $21 million dollar contract of Ryan Anderson, a three point shooting power forward who forgot how to shoot the ball from three point range. Not only that, but he received an above average backup point guard seeking a redemption season in Brandon Knight, and an uber athletic potential diamond in the rough with Marquese Chriss. In Morey we trust, ladies and gentlemen.
Three keys to look for
How will Carmelo Anthony be utilized?
Critics of the acquisition will cite his previous failure to work with head coach Mike D'Antoni in New York, as well as his on ball play style as reasons why the experiment won't work. These are probably the same people that said Chris Paul and James Harden wouldn't be able to productively share the court as well, and then the Rockets won 65 games. How Anthony is used remains the question. It's speculated that he will assume shooting guard Eric Gordon's sixth man spot, allowing him plenty of free reign on-ball to wreak havoc on opposing benches.
Which newcomer will stand out?
Brandon Knight has already proven to be a near all star caliber point guard when healthy, however that last part is a significant question mark. James Ennis will be a name to keep an eye on however as he frustrates opposing teams defensively. I'm most intrigued by the prospect of Marquese Chriss having a breakout year in part because of his ability to go up and get the ball, and Paul and Harden's ability to effectively find him cutting to the basket. Clint Capela made a living off of the alleyoop last season. It would be a lot of fun to watch another lob option develop.
Can the Rockets be competitive without pulling off a Jimmy Butler trade?
Yes, yes, a hundred times yes. The thought that the Rockets need Butler to win is a joke. Now acquiring another top 15 talent would obviously be welcome and improve their chances, but this is a well built, dangerous roster.
Predictions
This is going to be another fun season with one of the league's top offenses wreaking havoc on the league. The key will be health, but this a Rockets team that is built to throw offense at the opposition for 48 straight minutes until they crack.
I expect the Rockets to once again win the Southwest Division and vie for a top 3 seed in the Western Conference. Ultimately I anticipate a Western Conference Finals rematch with Golden State, provided everyone remains healthy.
Now comes what seems the perennial question every team asks: can they beat the Golden State Warriors? I'd like to say yes, but until I see it actually happen, you won't see me predicting anything otherwise. While it may get old watching the Warriors win title after title, keep in mind that you are witnessing quite possibly one of the greatest basketball teams ever assembled. But if there's any consolation to be had, it can be found in the fact that if there is any team in the west capable of playing spoiler to Golden State, it's the Houston Rockets.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.