THE PLAYOFF PICTURE
What has to happen for the Texans to get a top 2 seed in the AFC
Dec 4, 2018, 12:51 pm
Deshaun Watson and the Texans need to win out and hope for help. Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Four games remain this season and the Texans are on a nine game winning streak. They currently hold the third spot in the AFC and can lock up the division with a win at home against the Colts on Sunday and a Titans loss to the Jaguars. While those are both plausible scenarios nothing is guaranteed. Even if it doesn’t happen this weekend, it’s highly likely that they win the division in the end. But if they really want make this the most improbable season, they can earn the top overall seed by winning all four remaining games. Which is also a plausible scenario.
Houston’s remaining games are the Colts, at the Jets, at the Eagles, and at home in Week 17 against the Jaguars. The Colts just got blanked against the Jacksonville and you better believe Bill O’Brien is watching that film closely to see how he can limit Andrew Luck and his potent passing attack. The Jets are still the Jets, but the Eagles might be the biggest challenge. The Super Bowl Champions are not what they were last year, but they still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs and a home game against the Texans is a game they will get up for. The Jaguars defense may have awoken this past weekend but offensively they don’t have much; they managed only six points in their shutout of the Colts.
The Texans defense has been making big, timely plays and will have to continue that trend. They will also need to keep the running game going. Controlling the clock and wearing down opposing defenses is a sure fire way to win out. All of their remaining opponents are at .500 or below, giving the Texans plenty of film to showcase weaknesses. So far, Bill O’Brien has game planned and coached well enough to exploit their last nine opponents. Four more would surely earn him coach of the year.
They still need some help to get to the top. The Patriots currently sit in the second spot with a matching record and already hold a head to head victory over Houston. They will need to lose a game for the Texans to leap-frog them. Their schedule is a little light with games against all three of their divisional opponents remaining. If you know anything about the AFC East, the Patriots have dominated all of them in the Brady/Belichick era.
The best chance Houston has is New England’s Week 15 road game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are barely holding on to the lead in the AFC North and will need every win they can get to hold off Baltimore. A Patriots loss would help Houston’s case for at least a playoff bye week.
They also need the top seeded Chiefs to lose a divisional game or earn two losses in the final four games. They have the toughest remaining schedule between these three teams. They are at home against the Ravens this week and the Chargers the next. Baltimore is on a three game winning streak and has a solid defense so a win is no guarantee. The Chargers are only one game behind them in the AFC West and a win would make sure they have a shot to win the division at the end of the season. They finish their tough three-game stretch on the road against the Seahawks, who are fighting for the last Wild Card spot. Seattle is one of the toughest places to win on the road and Russell Wilson is showing why he’s a high caliber quarterback. They finish the season at home against a Raiders team whose only motivation might be to lose and secure the first overall pick in the draft. I’ll mark that a win for Kansas City.
The Chiefs were able to win their first game without running back Kareem Hunt, but that was against the aforementioned Raiders. It will be different when they roll into the next three games with only back-ups leading the ground game. Houston’s best chance comes once again in Week 15 when the Chargers come to Arrowhead. If Phillip Rivers can lead his team to victory the top seed will be visible from NRG Stadium.
The Texans can secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs by winning their last four games and getting help from the Patriots and Chiefs. One loss is needed by the Patriots and the Chiefs need to lose a divisional game or two games overall. Week 15 will be crucial, as the Chargers visit the Chiefs Thursday night and the Patriots go to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon. The Texans play on Saturday that week so fans in Houston can watch each game closely and will the Chargers, Texans, and Steelers to victory.
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It would be kind of funny if Christian Walker simply decided he wanted to check out what the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is all about. “Ow, my left oblique feels kind of sore. How about sending me to Houston for the weekend to get an MRI?” That would be quite a bodacious move, and total bull (props to you if you see what I did there). Of course, faking pain is not the case, and the Astros now cross their fingers that their 60-million dollar free agent signee doesn’t start his Houston tenure on the injured list. It certainly isn’t encouraging to know that Walker missed about 20 percent of last season with a left oblique injury. In 2021 he spent two stints on the IL because of right oblique problems. Obviously the Astros want return on their investment as quickly and as substantially as possible, but they would be fools not to treat this conservatively. Walker turns 34 years old the second day of the regular season. No one should be having night sweats just yet over the possibility that Walker is about to become Jose Abreu 2.0. Abreu was 36 when he debuted with the Astros. However, it is accurate to note that Abreu had a significantly higher WAR in his last season before joining the Astros than did Walker.
If Walker turns out to be sidelined for a month, that would mean the Astros need a first baseman for the first week and a half or so of the regular season. Let the drumbeat for Cam Smith begin! The sample size remains laughably small, but Smith continues to speak softly and swing a very, very big stick. If you’ll accept a .636 batting average as pretty good. It’s only 11 at bats. But yowza! If Walker is to be down into the regular season, and Smith keeps rocketing line drives in the Grapefruit League, the plot thickens. Smith only has 19 at bats above single-A. That’s 19 more than Albert Pujols had when the St. Louis Cardinals decided to have him in their lineup to begin the 2001 season. Albert did fairly well. He’s merely the greatest first baseman in National League history.
The much more conservative approach would be a platoon with Jon Singleton in the lineup against most right-handed pitchers and whoever is not catching between Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini playing against lefties. Zach Dezenzo would be another option. Cam Smith is not an option to play first base, at least not early in 2025. Just in the last few days, he’s started doing some outfield drills because of the possible pathway to the big club in right field that I wrote about last week. Cam Smith is not going to make a huge jump to the big leagues and basically try to learn a new position on the fly there. However, Isaac Paredes owns a first baseman’s glove. Paredes started 13 games at first for the Rays last season. He made 40 starts total at first over the last three seasons, his only big league starts at first, after a grand total of two at first in the minors. Paredes temporarily moving to first would open up third base for Smith. Just sayin’...
What's in a name?
File this more under trivial than trivia, but here goes. When Isaac Paredes takes the field in the season opener, he officially becomes the third Paredes in Astros’ history. Utility man Jimmy Paredes got some run during the franchise deep in the abyss stage from 2010-13. Relief pitcher Enoli Paredes got 32 1/3 innings in over three seasons 2020-22. There have been only six guys named Paredes in MLB history. Come March 27 the Astros will have had half of them.
On the farm
MLB Pipeline this week released its in order ranking of the Astros’ top 30 prospects. Cam Smith is the obvious number one. Brice Matthews is number two. Drafted as a shortstop, Matthews has a better route to the bigs as a second baseman, given the Astros’ weak depth chart there with Jose Altuve becoming primarily a left fielder. Outfielder Jacob Melton is third. Considering the present state of the Astros’ outfield and that Melton turns 25 this September, if worth a darn, he should play his way on to the 26-man roster at some point this year. Catcher Walker Yanek ranks fourth. He was the Astros’ first round pick last July. Dezenzo rounds out the top five.
We’re under three weeks until Opening Day. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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