Bill O'Brien and Deshaun Watson will have an interesting schedule to deal with in 2018. Getty Images
The Texans already knew they had the fourth place schedule and would be facing the Browns and Broncos as well as teams from the NFC East and AFC East as well as their six games against the AFC South. Last night they found out the order and kickoff times. That’s the most important part of it.
And despite the Texans getting the easiest schedule based on win percentage from 2017, it’s not as simple as the numbers suggest.
Let’s break it all down and try and get an idea of how the schedule might determine their record.
Starting on the road against 2 tough opponents.
They start Week 1 in Gillete Stadium against the New England Patriots and head to Nashville for a Week 2 divisional game against the Titans.
It’s tough to start the season on the road, it’s even tougher to start on the road against the AFC Champions. The Patriots have a pretty good record against the Texans the last few years and although they have shown vulnerability in early season games this will be a challenge for the Texans.
Follow that up with a road game against a divisional foe that made the playoffs last year and you have what could easily be an 0-2 start. It will be up to the Texans defense to slow down Tennessee’s run game and make this a low scoring affair.
The next 3 out of 4 are at home and all 4 are winnable.
They come home for the Giants in week 3, who finished 2017 with 2 wins; then hit the road for their first meeting with the Colts and return to Houston for games with the Cowboys and Bills. Only the Bills made the playoffs last year but they have undergone offensive changes at the quarterback and receiver positions so an early visit to Houston may be an advantage for the Texans.
The Cowboys game is the first of three scheduled in prime time, which sets up for a nice challenge. The Texans haven’t always done well outside of Sunday afternoon, and they haven’t always done well against their in-state opponent. The schedule might work in their favor this year because it’s a home game in a stretch when the Texans should be finding their groove. The loss of Dez Bryant might hurt the Cowboys’ offense at a time when they aren’t ready for a stout defense.
The Jaguars
If the Texans can somehow manage 3-4 wins in the first 6 weeks of the season they will be in a good position for their Week 7 matchup on the road in Jacksonville. Midseason is when a team should start to find its groove and figure out who they are. The Jacksonville defense will probably be playing well so it might be a low scoring game. This one could rest on the shoulders of the quarterback, if that’s the case then I will bet on Houston.
The great late season push
The Texans will face the Dolphins at home on Thursday night in Week 8 and the Broncos in Denver before their week 10 bye. Both are potential wins if the team is healthy and playing at or near its potential.
After the break they have five winnable games: at Washington; home against the Titans on Monday night, then Browns and Colts; wrapped up with a road game against the Jets.
Those are seven winnable games if Houston is firing on all cylinders. It will be later in the season and injuries will probably be a factor so I am going to assume the Texans can get through this stretch with 4 or 5 wins. Houston can be in position for a wild card if everything goes well heading into the final 2 weeks of the season.
The Final 2 games might be do or die
Just to make sure it’s no easy road to the playoffs for a former last place team, the scheduler left the Texans with two final games that should determine their fate.
In week 16 they hit the road to face the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles and wrap up the season against the AFC runner-up Jacksonville Jaguars. Neither of which are considered winnable right now. This is the kind of “F You!” the NFL sometimes throws in there to keep a team who might have just gone through an off year from having a clear and easy path to the playoffs.
Just because the Texans have the fourth place schedule, and the easiest; it may not be an easy road. These final two games will most likely determine the playoff fate of the Texans. It’s only fitting that they are against some of the toughest teams. Hopefully they can get at least a split and secure a playoff spot.
Taking into account the full scope of the schedule; this looks like it might be another 9-7 season. That’s better than the 4-12 from last year, but it might not be enough to get into the playoffs and just enough to be a successful turnaround. Anything can happen and teams can play above their expectations, the Texans being one of the teams fully capable of doing so.
This is a team loaded with talent, especially on defense; that has the potential to win more games than would have been thought. If the star players stay healthy they can ride this into a playoff spot and there they can upset the balance of the AFC postseason. It will take a lot of effort and great coaching to get there but it can be done. After all, this was a team that two years ago had the No. 1 defense, and at one-point last year had the highest scoring offense with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. If all of the cards fall into place then the Texans will be a formidable team. If there are any struggles or injuries it might be another long season that teases a playoff spot.
Now it’s just a waiting game to see what additions and subtractions help finalize the roster as we all eagerly await the opening game on Sept. 9.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.