FIELD BEGINS TO NARROW
What LSU's victory means for the Tigers and the college football playoff
Nov 10, 2019, 10:13 am
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Saturday was one of the seemingly endless "game of the year" candidates we have in college football at least once every two weeks. For once, however, LSU-Alabama lived up to the hype. The Tigers pulled off a 46-41 victory over the Crimson Tide.
The game had everything. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow cemented his Heisman campaign with a 31 of 39 passing effort for 309 yards and three touchdowns. After a slow start, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa rallied the Tide from a 33-13 halftime deficit with a 418-yard, four touchdown passing performance of his own.
There were big defensive plays among all the offense. There was a punt return touchdown. Both running backs - LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Alabama's Nejee Harris - made huge plays in the running and passing game. It was college football at its best.
It was also a major win for an LSU program that had scored a whopping 10 points in its last three games against Alabama. The Tigers shattered that on Saturday night. The bigger question is what does it mean for LSU moving forward?
A Heisman for Burrow?
Joe Burrow's performance might have earned him a Heisman trophy. Besides his excellent passing effort, he rushed for 64 yards on 14 carries, including a clinching first down late in the game. The moment was never too big for him, and he was at his best on the biggest stage. His numbers are phenomenal. He has completed almost 80 percent of his passes for 3,198 yards, 33 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Against Top 25 opponents, he has 11 touchdowns against just two interceptions. In the SEC, he has 17 touchdowns and just one interception.
Barring a collapse, here is your Heisman winner.
Playoff resume
The Tigers have four wins against teams that were in the Top 10 when they played them - Texas, Auburn, Florida and Alabama. There is no team in the country with a better resume. While they might not be the best team - Ohio State has a case for that as well - they have the most impressive body of work. And while you can debate who is No. 1 or 2, what you can't debate is that even if they lose a game, the Tigers are going to the playoffs.
What lies ahead
Next up is Mississippi, which is a decent team. LSU could easily have a letdown after Saturday's huge win, especially considering the injuries that piled up against Alabama. This could be their toughest test before the championship game. Ole Miss pushed Auburn and A&M, and won't be a pushover. LSU is better than those schools, but don't be surprised if this one is tougher than it looks on paper.
Free square
After that is Arkansas, which is one of the worst teams in a Power Five conference and LSU could win this one with backups.
Finally, a rematch of a classic
The last regular season game is against Texas A&M, which is a solid program that has not been able to get over the top against highly ranked teams this year. Ordinarily this might be a game that LSU might overlook, but after last year's Aggie victory, LSU will come into this prepared off an easy game.
On to the championship - and the impact
Assuming the Tigers win two of the three, they will get Georgia in the championship game. Here is the bottom line: If LSU wins its next three, it will be in the playoff even with a loss to Georgia. A one-loss LSU will have a better resume than any team in the country. One loss Oklahoma? One loss Oregon? None of those teams would measure up. Ideally, winning out and completing an undefeated season is the obvious goal, but the win over Alabama allows for a little wiggle room. Even a loss to A&M or Ole Miss would be meaningless if the Tigers beat Georgia for the title.
That makes the playoff picture a little more clear.
Ohio State and Clemson look like they have two of the playoff spots locked up; it's unlikely either loses down the stretch. If LSU finishes with one or no losses, they have the other spot. Which leaves one spot for Georgia (wins out with a win over LSU), Oklahoma or Baylor, Oregon or Utah, and yes, still Alabama, who is by no means out. Anything beyond that seems unlikely. Minnesota is unbeaten but will have to play Ohio State. Penn State's loss on Saturday likely eliminates them, but an unlikely win over Ohio State in two weeks could conceivably get them back in the mix. That does not seem likely.
Realistically, it will be LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and a player to be named. Ohio State still has some challenges, but they have trucked everyone and look like they will win out. If they do, that takes Penn State and Minnesota out of the equation. Clemson is playing much better football and has no real tests left, so they look safe.
In the Big 12, Oklahoma still has a path to the playoffs, but after losing to K State and almost losing to Iowa State, there are no guarantees, even if they win out. Baylor is unbeaten but will still have to face OU at least once and still has Texas on the schedule. With their weak overall schedule, one loss likely eliminates them. A one loss Oregon or Utah might have a case, but the Pac-12 is a lot like the Big 12; it simply does not have enough good teams to help their chances. In the end, the fourth spot could come down to Georgia with an upset over LSU in the title game or Alabama, who will need to win out, lurk and hope for the best. The Tide does not have a real signature win, but they do have Auburn left on the schedule, and a convincing win would give them a case over Oregon, who lost to Auburn Week 1. So if everything plays out and the top three win out, the remaining contenders for the fourth spot would be Alabama, Oklahoma and the Pac-12 winner with one loss.
What does it all mean for LSU?
LSU likely has a Heisman winner, is clearly one of the top two teams in the country, is a legitimate national title contender and has finally slayed the Alabama demon. Saturday's game was a classic, but there is still work to be done.
However, with the victory, LSU has already accomplished a great deal and set itself up to accomplish so much more.
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Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.