FIELD BEGINS TO NARROW
What LSU's victory means for the Tigers and the college football playoff
Nov 10, 2019, 10:13 am
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Saturday was one of the seemingly endless "game of the year" candidates we have in college football at least once every two weeks. For once, however, LSU-Alabama lived up to the hype. The Tigers pulled off a 46-41 victory over the Crimson Tide.
The game had everything. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow cemented his Heisman campaign with a 31 of 39 passing effort for 309 yards and three touchdowns. After a slow start, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa rallied the Tide from a 33-13 halftime deficit with a 418-yard, four touchdown passing performance of his own.
There were big defensive plays among all the offense. There was a punt return touchdown. Both running backs - LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Alabama's Nejee Harris - made huge plays in the running and passing game. It was college football at its best.
It was also a major win for an LSU program that had scored a whopping 10 points in its last three games against Alabama. The Tigers shattered that on Saturday night. The bigger question is what does it mean for LSU moving forward?
A Heisman for Burrow?
Joe Burrow's performance might have earned him a Heisman trophy. Besides his excellent passing effort, he rushed for 64 yards on 14 carries, including a clinching first down late in the game. The moment was never too big for him, and he was at his best on the biggest stage. His numbers are phenomenal. He has completed almost 80 percent of his passes for 3,198 yards, 33 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Against Top 25 opponents, he has 11 touchdowns against just two interceptions. In the SEC, he has 17 touchdowns and just one interception.
Barring a collapse, here is your Heisman winner.
Playoff resume
The Tigers have four wins against teams that were in the Top 10 when they played them - Texas, Auburn, Florida and Alabama. There is no team in the country with a better resume. While they might not be the best team - Ohio State has a case for that as well - they have the most impressive body of work. And while you can debate who is No. 1 or 2, what you can't debate is that even if they lose a game, the Tigers are going to the playoffs.
What lies ahead
Next up is Mississippi, which is a decent team. LSU could easily have a letdown after Saturday's huge win, especially considering the injuries that piled up against Alabama. This could be their toughest test before the championship game. Ole Miss pushed Auburn and A&M, and won't be a pushover. LSU is better than those schools, but don't be surprised if this one is tougher than it looks on paper.
Free square
After that is Arkansas, which is one of the worst teams in a Power Five conference and LSU could win this one with backups.
Finally, a rematch of a classic
The last regular season game is against Texas A&M, which is a solid program that has not been able to get over the top against highly ranked teams this year. Ordinarily this might be a game that LSU might overlook, but after last year's Aggie victory, LSU will come into this prepared off an easy game.
On to the championship - and the impact
Assuming the Tigers win two of the three, they will get Georgia in the championship game. Here is the bottom line: If LSU wins its next three, it will be in the playoff even with a loss to Georgia. A one-loss LSU will have a better resume than any team in the country. One loss Oklahoma? One loss Oregon? None of those teams would measure up. Ideally, winning out and completing an undefeated season is the obvious goal, but the win over Alabama allows for a little wiggle room. Even a loss to A&M or Ole Miss would be meaningless if the Tigers beat Georgia for the title.
That makes the playoff picture a little more clear.
Ohio State and Clemson look like they have two of the playoff spots locked up; it's unlikely either loses down the stretch. If LSU finishes with one or no losses, they have the other spot. Which leaves one spot for Georgia (wins out with a win over LSU), Oklahoma or Baylor, Oregon or Utah, and yes, still Alabama, who is by no means out. Anything beyond that seems unlikely. Minnesota is unbeaten but will have to play Ohio State. Penn State's loss on Saturday likely eliminates them, but an unlikely win over Ohio State in two weeks could conceivably get them back in the mix. That does not seem likely.
Realistically, it will be LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and a player to be named. Ohio State still has some challenges, but they have trucked everyone and look like they will win out. If they do, that takes Penn State and Minnesota out of the equation. Clemson is playing much better football and has no real tests left, so they look safe.
In the Big 12, Oklahoma still has a path to the playoffs, but after losing to K State and almost losing to Iowa State, there are no guarantees, even if they win out. Baylor is unbeaten but will still have to face OU at least once and still has Texas on the schedule. With their weak overall schedule, one loss likely eliminates them. A one loss Oregon or Utah might have a case, but the Pac-12 is a lot like the Big 12; it simply does not have enough good teams to help their chances. In the end, the fourth spot could come down to Georgia with an upset over LSU in the title game or Alabama, who will need to win out, lurk and hope for the best. The Tide does not have a real signature win, but they do have Auburn left on the schedule, and a convincing win would give them a case over Oregon, who lost to Auburn Week 1. So if everything plays out and the top three win out, the remaining contenders for the fourth spot would be Alabama, Oklahoma and the Pac-12 winner with one loss.
What does it all mean for LSU?
LSU likely has a Heisman winner, is clearly one of the top two teams in the country, is a legitimate national title contender and has finally slayed the Alabama demon. Saturday's game was a classic, but there is still work to be done.
However, with the victory, LSU has already accomplished a great deal and set itself up to accomplish so much more.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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