FIELD BEGINS TO NARROW
What LSU's victory means for the Tigers and the college football playoff
Nov 10, 2019, 10:13 am
FIELD BEGINS TO NARROW
Saturday was one of the seemingly endless "game of the year" candidates we have in college football at least once every two weeks. For once, however, LSU-Alabama lived up to the hype. The Tigers pulled off a 46-41 victory over the Crimson Tide.
The game had everything. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow cemented his Heisman campaign with a 31 of 39 passing effort for 309 yards and three touchdowns. After a slow start, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa rallied the Tide from a 33-13 halftime deficit with a 418-yard, four touchdown passing performance of his own.
There were big defensive plays among all the offense. There was a punt return touchdown. Both running backs - LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Alabama's Nejee Harris - made huge plays in the running and passing game. It was college football at its best.
It was also a major win for an LSU program that had scored a whopping 10 points in its last three games against Alabama. The Tigers shattered that on Saturday night. The bigger question is what does it mean for LSU moving forward?
Joe Burrow's performance might have earned him a Heisman trophy. Besides his excellent passing effort, he rushed for 64 yards on 14 carries, including a clinching first down late in the game. The moment was never too big for him, and he was at his best on the biggest stage. His numbers are phenomenal. He has completed almost 80 percent of his passes for 3,198 yards, 33 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Against Top 25 opponents, he has 11 touchdowns against just two interceptions. In the SEC, he has 17 touchdowns and just one interception.
Barring a collapse, here is your Heisman winner.
The Tigers have four wins against teams that were in the Top 10 when they played them - Texas, Auburn, Florida and Alabama. There is no team in the country with a better resume. While they might not be the best team - Ohio State has a case for that as well - they have the most impressive body of work. And while you can debate who is No. 1 or 2, what you can't debate is that even if they lose a game, the Tigers are going to the playoffs.
Next up is Mississippi, which is a decent team. LSU could easily have a letdown after Saturday's huge win, especially considering the injuries that piled up against Alabama. This could be their toughest test before the championship game. Ole Miss pushed Auburn and A&M, and won't be a pushover. LSU is better than those schools, but don't be surprised if this one is tougher than it looks on paper.
After that is Arkansas, which is one of the worst teams in a Power Five conference and LSU could win this one with backups.
The last regular season game is against Texas A&M, which is a solid program that has not been able to get over the top against highly ranked teams this year. Ordinarily this might be a game that LSU might overlook, but after last year's Aggie victory, LSU will come into this prepared off an easy game.
Assuming the Tigers win two of the three, they will get Georgia in the championship game. Here is the bottom line: If LSU wins its next three, it will be in the playoff even with a loss to Georgia. A one-loss LSU will have a better resume than any team in the country. One loss Oklahoma? One loss Oregon? None of those teams would measure up. Ideally, winning out and completing an undefeated season is the obvious goal, but the win over Alabama allows for a little wiggle room. Even a loss to A&M or Ole Miss would be meaningless if the Tigers beat Georgia for the title.
That makes the playoff picture a little more clear.
Ohio State and Clemson look like they have two of the playoff spots locked up; it's unlikely either loses down the stretch. If LSU finishes with one or no losses, they have the other spot. Which leaves one spot for Georgia (wins out with a win over LSU), Oklahoma or Baylor, Oregon or Utah, and yes, still Alabama, who is by no means out. Anything beyond that seems unlikely. Minnesota is unbeaten but will have to play Ohio State. Penn State's loss on Saturday likely eliminates them, but an unlikely win over Ohio State in two weeks could conceivably get them back in the mix. That does not seem likely.
Realistically, it will be LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and a player to be named. Ohio State still has some challenges, but they have trucked everyone and look like they will win out. If they do, that takes Penn State and Minnesota out of the equation. Clemson is playing much better football and has no real tests left, so they look safe.
In the Big 12, Oklahoma still has a path to the playoffs, but after losing to K State and almost losing to Iowa State, there are no guarantees, even if they win out. Baylor is unbeaten but will still have to face OU at least once and still has Texas on the schedule. With their weak overall schedule, one loss likely eliminates them. A one loss Oregon or Utah might have a case, but the Pac-12 is a lot like the Big 12; it simply does not have enough good teams to help their chances. In the end, the fourth spot could come down to Georgia with an upset over LSU in the title game or Alabama, who will need to win out, lurk and hope for the best. The Tide does not have a real signature win, but they do have Auburn left on the schedule, and a convincing win would give them a case over Oregon, who lost to Auburn Week 1. So if everything plays out and the top three win out, the remaining contenders for the fourth spot would be Alabama, Oklahoma and the Pac-12 winner with one loss.
LSU likely has a Heisman winner, is clearly one of the top two teams in the country, is a legitimate national title contender and has finally slayed the Alabama demon. Saturday's game was a classic, but there is still work to be done.
However, with the victory, LSU has already accomplished a great deal and set itself up to accomplish so much more.
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are the top three leading rushers in the NFL.
Every team had a chance to add them in the offseason.
Henry, Barkley and Jacobs switched teams in free agency along with several other starting running backs who are leading their teams in rushing. J.K. Dobbins, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones and De’Andre Swift are on the list. Joe Mixon also changed uniforms but he was traded.
Many running backs felt they were being devalued last year and openly expressed their frustration. They were paid better this season, though nowhere close to the money quarterbacks and wide receivers receive.
The success of Henry, Barkley and others could change the future of the position. Teams may be more inclined to give top backs bigger contracts.
Henry signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens. He has 1,185 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns.
Barkley got a $37.5 million, three-year contract with $26 million guaranteed from the Philadelphia Eagles. He leads the NFL with 1,347 scrimmage yards, including 1,137 on the ground, and has eight rushing TDs and two more receiving.
Mixon received a $25.5 million, three-year deal from Houston after he was traded by Cincinnati. He has 764 yards rushing and 10 TDs, including three Monday night, in eight games.
Christian McCaffrey is the highest-paid running back with an average annual salary of $19 million. Meanwhile, 23 receivers are averaging at least $20 million per season, including six making $30 million.
Henry, Barkley and Mixon have been bargains for likely playoff-bound teams with Super Bowl aspirations.
They could pave the way for other backs to get paid.
Mike Tomlin is one win away from securing his 18th winning season in 18 years as the head coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers. This could be Tomlin’s best coaching job yet.
The Steelers (8-2) took control of the AFC North with an 18-16 win over Baltimore (7-4) and have established themselves as surprise Super Bowl contenders. They were an afterthough t coming into the season before starting 4-2 with Justin Fields filling in for Russell Wilson. Tomlin was widely criticized for switching to Wilson when he returned from a calf injury and the Steelers haven’t lost since.
Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy was among the few national analysts who supported Tomlin’s decision to make a QB change.
“So many said Mike Tomlin didn’t know what he was doing and Russell Wilson couldn’t play football any more. I think Coach Tomlin has watched enough football to be able to make intelligent decisions,” Dungy said.
Despite his success, Tomlin has never been the AP Coach of the Year. He’s built a strong case through 11 weeks.
The Saints (4-7) are 2-0 since Dennis Allen was fired and special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi became the interim coach. The Jets (3-8) are 1-5 after Jeff Ulbrich replaced Robert Saleh.
Ulbrich, who was promoted to interim coach from defensive coordinator, has continued to call plays for a unit that has regressed.
Twice in the past four games, the defense has allowed a 70-yard touchdown drive that culminated with the go-ahead score in the final minute. It happened against Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots in Week 8 and against Anthony Richardson and the Colts on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers now has to lead the Jets to six straight wins to avoid the fourth losing season of his career.
New York’s miserable season cost general manager Joe Douglas his job on Tuesday.
Just when it seemed things couldn’t get worse for the Cowboys, their stadium fell apart. Well, a piece of the roof at AT&T Stadium fell about 300 feet to the field a few hours before Monday night’s 34-10 loss to Houston.
With Dak Prescott, Dallas was 3-5. Without their star quarterback, the Cowboys have no chance. They’ve been outscored 68-16 in two losses. Even worse, the future looks bleak because the team has too many flaws.
Owner/general manager Jerry Jones has to make important decisions, starting with who will lead the team if coach Mike McCarthy, as expected, doesn’t return.
Unfortunately, a national TV audience will have to watch America’s Team the next two games on Thanksgiving and Monday night Dec. 9.