Falcon Points
What the Houston O'Briens need to do to close the gap in the AFC
Feb 5, 2020, 6:55 am
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If you watched Sunday's Super Bowl (and let's face it; of course you did) you heard more than one reference to the Chiefs trailing the Houston O'Briens 24-0 before rallying on their way to a title. They also trailed Tennessee by 10 and San Francisco by 10 before rolling to a 31-20 victory and Kansas City's first Super Bowl title in 50 years.
Now that the season is officially over, it's time for an honest assessment of where Houston fits in the landscape of the NFL and AFC in particular. And one man - Bill O'Brien - will dictate whether or not the team makes up ground.
What Vegas says
As usual, early Vegas Super Bowl odds go up right after the prior year's game ends.
Here are the 2021 Super Bowl odds according to William Hill:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7/1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7/1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7/1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10/1 |
| New England Patriots | 12/1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 15/1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 15/1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18/1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20/1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 25/1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 25/1 |
| Houston Texans | 25/1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 25/1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 25/1 |
| Chicago Bears | 30/1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 30/1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 30/1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 30/1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 30/1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 40/1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 40/1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 50/1 |
| Denver Broncos | 50/1 |
| Detroit Lions | 60/1 |
| New York Jets | 60/1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 60/1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 60/1 |
| New York Giants | 60/1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 75/1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 100/1 |
| Washington Redskins | 100/1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 125/1 |
While the O'Briens are 25-1, they are basically co-fourth choices in the AFC with Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Teams regarded with better chances? The Chiefs (7-1), Ravens (7-1) and Patriots (12-1).
The Chiefs and Ravens were the dominant teams in the AFC in 2019-20 and deserve to be favored. The Titans made it a step deeper in the playoffs than did Houston, and the Steelers almost made the playoffs without Ben Roethlisberger, who will be back next season (presumably). So where Houston sits makes sense. Keep in mind, this is before off-season moves. The Chiefs will have to do some maneuvering to keep everyone. The Ravens might not be able to keep Lamar Jackson healthy for a full season again. The Patriots could easily be back but might also move on from Tom Brady and start over. The O'Briens? It remains to be seen.
Moves to be made
The Colts (40-1) could be a threat if they get a veteran quarterback. But all of these odds are more based on last year's results than what these teams will look like heading into camp. The gap between Houston and Kansas City as of today is significant. A 24-0 lead aside, there has to be a lot of moves made. And the Chiefs need to regress, both of which are entirely plausible.
The real question is what does O'Brien the GM do in the off-season? We know he is not going to bring in fresh voices on the coaching staff. And we know he will overpay his pets (Nick Martin and Whitney Mercilus) and give away anyone who he does not like (Jadeveon Clowney). So if your coaching is not going to improve, and you have limited draft capital, the team has one way to improve - free agency.
First things first
Houston has plenty of cap room, but some big deals that need to be made with players already on the roster will impact that. They need to extend Laremy Tunsil, and Deshaun Watson is due for a raise as well. They could hold off until next season, but going into the 2021 off-season with both players eligible to hit free agency would be a disaster. So they need to get at least Tunsil locked up now.
D.J. Reader will get paid by somebody. It will be interesting to see whether or not the team values him the same way it did Mercilus and Martin. Carlos Hyde had a big year, and he is a free agent as well. Bradley Roby is another potential free agent. He played well when healthy, but was he really good enough to be a No. 1 corner? That's what it will cost to keep him.
Without him, they have Gareon Conley, Vernon Hargreaves and Lonnie Johnson under contract. They need a legitimate No. 1, which should be available in free agency. But the price will be steep.
They also need help in the pass rush, which won't be cheap either. And if Reader leaves? They need to replace him as well. All that will just keep them where they are, not necessarily make them better.
And that's the real issue. How can they get better? It's all up to O'Brien the GM to close the gap. Because O'Brien's coaching staff isn't getting any better, and the draft is not going to help.
It will be hard just to keep the Texans where they are, much less improve. But there is a gap that has to be closed if they are going to compete with the Chiefs and Ravens, among others.
As of now, Vegas has them a long way off. And now that O'Brien is in charge of everything, it's on him to gain the ground, what he does in free agency will be the determining factor.
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The Houston Texans are entering the 2025 NFL Draft with a roster on the rise and a franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud—but what happens next is anything but certain.
Draft experts are calling this year’s class one of the most difficult to project, especially in the back half of the first round, where opinions on prospects vary widely. For the Texans, who hold the No. 25 overall pick, this presents both opportunity and risk. With no glaring positional holes but several areas in need of long-term upgrades, Houston’s approach will provide insight into how the front office views its roster—and, more specifically, how it plans to protect its most valuable asset: Stroud.
Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, second only to Chicago's Caleb Williams. That reality underscores the Texans’ top priority heading into the draft: fortifying the offensive line. How they do that could reveal what they truly think of tackle Blake Fisher and whether Tytus Howard’s future lies at guard or tackle.
A number of linemen are on the Texans’ radar for their first-round pick, including Alabama interior mauler Tyler Booker, versatile North Dakota State tackle Gray Zabel, and Oregon’s athletic pass protector Josh Conerly. Texas standout Kelvin Banks and Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson also bring physicality and pedigree, while Josh Simmons of Ohio State is a long-term project coming off a torn patellar tendon.
Still, wide receiver is the other major position of interest. If Houston opts to go wideout in the first round, names like Arizona’s Tet McMillan, Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka, Missouri’s Luther Burden, and Texas' Matthew Golden offer a blend of polish, upside, and explosiveness.
A best-case scenario? The Texans land an offensive lineman in the first round and then leverage their extra third-round pick to trade up for a sliding receiver like Burden early in the second. That would give Houston immediate trench help and another weapon for Stroud without having to choose between the two priorities.
No matter what direction the Texans go, this year’s draft is set to be the most unpredictable of the Stroud era. And that might be just how Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans like it.
We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as the crew from Texans on Tap discusses all the topics above and much more!
And be sure to watch our live reaction to the Texans' first round pick this Thursday night on our SportsMap Texans YouTube channel!
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