Falcon Points

What the Houston O'Briens need to do to close the gap in the AFC

Bill O'Brien against Jacksonville
Getty Images

If you watched Sunday's Super Bowl (and let's face it; of course you did) you heard more than one reference to the Chiefs trailing the Houston O'Briens 24-0 before rallying on their way to a title. They also trailed Tennessee by 10 and San Francisco by 10 before rolling to a 31-20 victory and Kansas City's first Super Bowl title in 50 years.

Now that the season is officially over, it's time for an honest assessment of where Houston fits in the landscape of the NFL and AFC in particular. And one man - Bill O'Brien - will dictate whether or not the team makes up ground.

What Vegas says

As usual, early Vegas Super Bowl odds go up right after the prior year's game ends.

Here are the 2021 Super Bowl odds according to William Hill:


TEAMODDS
San Francisco 49ers 7/1
Baltimore Ravens 7/1
Kansas City Chiefs 7/1
New Orleans Saints 10/1
New England Patriots12/1
Green Bay Packers 15/1
Philadelphia Eagles 15/1
Seattle Seahawks 18/1
Dallas Cowboys 20/1
Tennessee Titans 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
Houston Texans 25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 25/1
Los Angeles Rams 25/1
Chicago Bears30/1
Buffalo Bills30/1
Atlanta Falcons30/1
Los Angeles Chargers30/1
Las Vegas Raiders30/1
Indianapolis Colts40/1
Cleveland Browns40/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers50/1
Denver Broncos50/1
Detroit Lions60/1
New York Jets60/1
Jacksonville Jaguars60/1
Carolina Panthers60/1
New York Giants60/1
Arizona Cardinals75/1
Miami Dolphins 100/1
Washington Redskins 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals 125/1

While the O'Briens are 25-1, they are basically co-fourth choices in the AFC with Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Teams regarded with better chances? The Chiefs (7-1), Ravens (7-1) and Patriots (12-1).

The Chiefs and Ravens were the dominant teams in the AFC in 2019-20 and deserve to be favored. The Titans made it a step deeper in the playoffs than did Houston, and the Steelers almost made the playoffs without Ben Roethlisberger, who will be back next season (presumably). So where Houston sits makes sense. Keep in mind, this is before off-season moves. The Chiefs will have to do some maneuvering to keep everyone. The Ravens might not be able to keep Lamar Jackson healthy for a full season again. The Patriots could easily be back but might also move on from Tom Brady and start over. The O'Briens? It remains to be seen.

Moves to be made

The Colts (40-1) could be a threat if they get a veteran quarterback. But all of these odds are more based on last year's results than what these teams will look like heading into camp. The gap between Houston and Kansas City as of today is significant. A 24-0 lead aside, there has to be a lot of moves made. And the Chiefs need to regress, both of which are entirely plausible.

The real question is what does O'Brien the GM do in the off-season? We know he is not going to bring in fresh voices on the coaching staff. And we know he will overpay his pets (Nick Martin and Whitney Mercilus) and give away anyone who he does not like (Jadeveon Clowney). So if your coaching is not going to improve, and you have limited draft capital, the team has one way to improve - free agency.

First things first

Houston has plenty of cap room, but some big deals that need to be made with players already on the roster will impact that. They need to extend Laremy Tunsil, and Deshaun Watson is due for a raise as well. They could hold off until next season, but going into the 2021 off-season with both players eligible to hit free agency would be a disaster. So they need to get at least Tunsil locked up now.

D.J. Reader will get paid by somebody. It will be interesting to see whether or not the team values him the same way it did Mercilus and Martin. Carlos Hyde had a big year, and he is a free agent as well. Bradley Roby is another potential free agent. He played well when healthy, but was he really good enough to be a No. 1 corner? That's what it will cost to keep him.

Without him, they have Gareon Conley, Vernon Hargreaves and Lonnie Johnson under contract. They need a legitimate No. 1, which should be available in free agency. But the price will be steep.

They also need help in the pass rush, which won't be cheap either. And if Reader leaves? They need to replace him as well. All that will just keep them where they are, not necessarily make them better.

And that's the real issue. How can they get better? It's all up to O'Brien the GM to close the gap. Because O'Brien's coaching staff isn't getting any better, and the draft is not going to help.

It will be hard just to keep the Texans where they are, much less improve. But there is a gap that has to be closed if they are going to compete with the Chiefs and Ravens, among others.

As of now, Vegas has them a long way off. And now that O'Brien is in charge of everything, it's on him to gain the ground, what he does in free agency will be the determining factor.

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The Texans host Josh Allen and the Bills Week 12 on Thursday Night Football. Composite Getty Image.

The NFL has released its full 2025 regular season schedule, and the Houston Texans are no longer flying under the radar. The league is rewarding Houston with four nationally televised games, including two prime-time Monday Night Football matchups, a Thursday night showdown with the Bills, and a late-season Sunday night contest against the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Here's a breakdown of the Texans' full 2025 slate and what to watch for:

2025 Houston Texans Regular Season Schedule

Week 1 – at Rams
Sunday, 3:25 PM CT
Houston opens the season on the road in Los Angeles, a marquee afternoon slot against an NFC contender.

Week 2 – vs. Buccaneers
Monday Night Football, 6:00 PM CT
The Texans return home to a national audience in Week 2, hosting Tampa Bay under the lights at NRG Stadium.

Week 3 – at Jaguars
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
An early AFC South test on the road in Jacksonville, where divisional stakes are always high.

Week 4 – vs. Titans
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
Houston faces a familiar foe, looking to assert dominance in the South.

Week 5 – at Ravens
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
A rematch of last season’s playoff clash, the Texans head to Baltimore for one of their toughest road games.

Week 6 – Bye Week
A well-placed midseason break as Houston gears up for a rugged stretch ahead.

Week 7 – at Seahawks
Monday Night Football, 9:00 PM CT
Another prime-time moment for Houston as they travel to Seattle for a late-night showdown.

Week 8 – vs. 49ers
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
The 49ers visit NRG in a heavyweight NFC-AFC battle, with both teams eyeing deep playoff runs.

Week 9 – vs. Broncos
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
Houston looks to capitalize on home-field advantage in back-to-back weeks.

Week 10 – vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
A crucial rematch with Jacksonville that could have major implications in the division race.

Week 11 – at Titans
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
The Texans head to Nashville for the second leg of their rivalry series.

Week 12 – vs. Bills
Thursday Night Football, 7:15 PM CT
Short week, big stage—Josh Allen and the Bills come to town for a showdown under the lights.

Week 13 – at Colts
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
Houston travels to Indianapolis in another pivotal AFC South matchup.

Week 14 – at Chiefs
Sunday Night Football, 7:20 PM CT
All eyes will be on Arrowhead as the Texans get their shot at the reigning AFC champs in prime time.

Week 15 – vs. Cardinals
Sunday, 12:00 PM CT
Houston returns home to face an Arizona squad in the late-season playoff push.

Week 16 – vs. Raiders
Sunday, 3:25 PM CT
Another home test for the Texans as they look to stack wins in December.

Week 17 – at Chargers
Date/Time TBD
A potential flex game as the playoff picture takes shape in the AFC.

Week 18 – vs. Colts
Date/Time TBD
The regular-season finale at home could decide the division—or more.

Key Takeaways:

  • Four national TV games: Two on Monday night, one on Thursday, and one massive Sunday night in Kansas City.
  • Division focus: As always, the AFC South matchups will be pivotal—with two against the Colts, one against the Titans, and one against the Jags starting Week 10.
  • Late-season challenges: A brutal stretch from Week 12 to Week 14 features the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs.

The schedule sets up for a dramatic season with playoff implications likely lasting into Week 18.

Here's a look at the Texans schedule release video:

*ChatGPT assisted.

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