SPORTS SCIENCE
When it comes to baseball, sweaty balls make for long balls
Stephen Uzick
Apr 5, 2018, 7:18 am
Minute Maid Park was built with a retractable roof for a reason. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Recently I stumbled across an article highlighting how executives from an anonymous MLB team reached out to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information to request weather data for all of the cities in which they play. Given the importance that has been placed on analytics in this era of sports, it should come as no surprise that teams are looking to factors beyond the playing field and thinking outside of the box in attempts to gain any possible advantage.
This un-named team (but let's be honest, there’s a very good chance it is the Astros) did not disclose exactly how they would be using the data, but based on the information requested it is safe to assume the team is looking at factors beyond just wind and rain. More than likely these club executives are also taking account of temperature and humidity conditions at each ballpark. Both of these factors share one commonality which affects the flight of a baseball off the bat and out of a pitcher's hand - air density. On a very basic level air density is a measure of how many air molecules are present in a given area.
As the temperature warms air molecules begin to move faster causing the air to expand. This expansion leads to more space in between the molecules which in turn lowers air density. Humid air is also less dense, even though most people describe the air as feeling heavy when it is muggy out. The lower density is due to the fact that water molecules are actually smaller than the nitrogen and oxygen molecules that make up the majority of the air we breathe. When the air is more saturated (humid) water molecules displace more of those larger molecules creating a less dense air mass (Nerd moment – this is the same reason humid air rises to create storms).
Knowing what kind of temperatures and humidity levels to expect at certain stadiums can help teams make tweaks to their hitting and pitching strategy. In cooler or drier conditions the air is more dense which can lead to a little more movement on breaking pitches due to increased friction, while in hot and humid weather, or at high altitude like in Denver, the air is less dense giving fly balls a bit more oomph towards the fences.
In Houston we have an abundance of heat and humidity for 99% of baseball season which is part of the reason Minute Maid was built with the retractable roof. Although the overall effect of air density is rather small - when combined with the Astros’ ball-mashing lineup and short outfield corners, the heat and humidity are assets not to be discounted for the home team. So on those hot and muggy summer nights perhaps the Astros should open up the juice box and let the dingers fly.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.