THE PALLILOG
Where the Texans stand in the AFC pecking order after big win over the Patriots
Dec 6, 2019, 6:26 am
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
At 8-4 have the Texans stamped themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders? No they have not. Not yet. They're making progress, but not yet. Have you seen the Ravens? The Ravens who pulverized the Texans 41-7 in Baltimore 3 weeks ago? Still, beating a 10-1 Patriots team was stout. But the game was in Houston, under an obnoxiously and laughably closed roof. To be a Super Bowl team the Texans are going to have win in January, on the road, probably twice.
The Texans still have faint hopes for a first round playoff bye. They're two games behind New England, but the Patriots do play the Chiefs this Sunday and the Bills in two weeks. However, both those games are in Foxborough where the Pats are undefeated this season. Quick: name the only other NFL team perfect at home this season. Answer below in Buzzer Beaters.
Following games vs. the Ravens, Colts, and Patriots it's understandable that the lowly Broncos coming to town brings very little buzz. It's a take out the trash game for the Texans to get to 9-4. They then could wrap up the AFC South with a win in Nashville next Sunday. On the other hand, the Titans know that if they if win in Oakland Sunday, they take the South by beating the Texans twice over the final three games.
Rockets recover
Excellent bounce back win for the Rockets Thursday night in Toronto. Hitting 40 percent of 55 three point attempts facilitated the victory. That after the Rockets looked ridiculous in thinking the NBA should award them a win over the Spurs because of the James Harden uncredited dunk in Tuesday's lame loss at San Antonio. That only enhanced their reputation as a whiny organization, which is too bad because it's a really good organization. As if a basket they didn't get with more than half the fourth quarter remaining decided the game. The Rockets lost that game because they fell apart, puking up a 22 point lead against a bad Spurs team.
The Rockets lost that game because their defense disintegrated. Not a rarity so far this season. The Rockets lost that game because despite scoring 50 points James Harden was not good. 11 of 38 shooting, kept jacking up long threes on a night when he was making very few (4-20). Harden is a streaky three point shooter. Overall this season he is below NBA average behind the three point line.
The Rockets lost that game because Russell Westbrook was horrible. A triple double rings verrrrry hollow in a game where Westbrook made seven of 30 shots from the floor. As over his NBA career, Westbrook is a phenomenally exciting player to watch. Also as over his NBA career, he is a phenomenally bad outside shooter. No other player in NBA history with as lousy a three point percentage as Westbrook's is within a thousand three point attempts of Westbrook's total. So far this season he's a ridiculously inept 22 percent. The Rockets, so smart with analytics, are so dumb if they continue to encourage, or allow, Westbrook to take on average more than five threes per game. The Westbricking will continue. He's 31 years old, it's basketball insane to hope he'll now develop into a good outside shooter. Or a decent one.
The 14-7 Rockets are again clearly a very good team, but they also look like a B-list contender. At least there's plenty of season left to upgrade from there.
Astros likely to be quiet
The Major League Baseball Winter Meetings open Sunday in San Diego. The Astros' roster is now so top heavy with massive salaries that it will be a big surprise if they make any significant additions. They have no legitimate starting catcher. Resigning Robinson Chirinos seems the most likely play there. They want/need to add a back of the rotation starter and will be shopping the discount bin, but may still blanch at those prices. The Astros are unlikely to offer market value for Will Harris or Joe Smith to return to the bullpen, and instead keep clearly inferior but much cheaper guys like Chris Devenski and Joe Biagini. Trading Jake Marisnick to the Mets to shave a couple of million dollars off the payroll is a sign of the times. Myles Straw will play for about one fifth of what Marisnick will make in 2020. There are no takers for Josh Reddick's 13 million dollar salary for 2020, the Astros literally cannot give him away.
The Astros' overall talent remains outstanding. The lineup is super-stacked, the pitching should still be fine overall unless Justin Verlander or Zack Greinke shows notable slippage. But if the Yankees sign Gerrit Cole they obviously go into the season with the best American League squad on paper
Buzzer Beaters
1. SKOL! The Vikings are 5-0 at home. 2. The NFL 100 greatest players list Friday night reveals its 13 greatest defensive backs. My all-time starting secondary: Corners Deion Sanders and Dick "Night Train" Lane. Safeties Ronnie Lott and Ed Reed. Nickel back 1980 Lester Hayes. 3. Lone Star State FBS Un-Coach of the Year medalists: Bronze-Jimbo Fisher Silver-Tom Herman Gold-Dana Holgorsen
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As of 9:42 Central Daylight Saving Time Friday night, the Astros (and all other baseball players) are officially the Boys of Summer, officially so far as the season is concerned anyway. When the summer solstice arrived last year the Astros were nine games off the lead in the American League West. So in addressing the rhetorical axiom “what a difference a year makes,” the difference in the Astros’ case is a whopping 14 games as they start the weekend atop their division by five games. At this point in the season last year the Astros’ record in one-run games was a brutal 5-14. In 2025 they are 13-7 in games decided by the narrowest of margins.
That the Astros are just 4-5 in road games against the two worst teams in the American League is no big deal, other than that every game counts in the standings. Still, just as was losing two out of three at the pathetic White Sox earlier this season, it is no doubt disappointing to the Astros to have only gotten a split of their four-game set with the Athletics. The A’s had gone 9-28 in their last 37 games before the Astros arrived in West Sacramento. The former-Oaklanders took the first game and the finale, as the Astros’ offense played bi-polar ball over the four nights. Two stat-padding explosion games that totaled 24 runs and 35 hits were bookended by a puny one-run output Monday and Thursday’s 5-4 10-inning loss. Baseball happens. Nevertheless, as the Astros open their weekend set versus the Angels, they have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games to forge their five-game division lead.
The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and is currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
Hunter Brown pitches opposite Yusei Kikuchi Friday night. Kikuchi was Dana Brown’s big in-season move last season, and Kikuchi was excellent with the Astros which set up to get the three-year 63 million dollar deal he landed with the Halos. After a slow start to his season Kikuchi has been outstanding the past month and a half, with a 2.28 earned run average over his last nine starts. Brown’s 1.88 season ERA is second-best in the big leagues among pitchers with the innings pitched to qualify in the category. Only Pirates’ stud Paul Skenes has a better mark, barely so at 1.85.
Kikuchi was a stellar rental who helped the Astros stretch their consecutive postseasons streak to eight. There was an absurd amount of vitriol over what Dana Brown gave up for him. Joey Loperfido is 26 years old and having a middling season at AAA. Will Wagner is 26 years old and back in the minors after batting .186 with the Blue Jays. Jake Bloss is the one guy who maaaaaybe some day the Astros wish they still had. Bloss is out into 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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