FALCON POINTS
Why the Jets win is bad news for the Texans on several fronts
Dec 22, 2020, 8:00 am
2021 can't come soon enough.Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
Can we finally put to bed some stereotypes in sports?
When the New York Jets shocked the world and knocked off the LA Rams, it improved their dismal record to 1-13, same as the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags, however, now have the inside track to the first pick in the draft, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. That is bad news for the Texans on two fronts.
First, they will have a generational talent in the division again, a player who could be every bit as difficult to beat as Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. While it will be fun seeing Lawrence and Deshaun Watson go after each other twice a year, the advantage goes to the Jags, who have better young talent, a plethora of picks and cap space to burn.
Interestingly enough, the two worst teams in the division in 2020 likely will have the two best quarterbacks moving forward. While Ryan Tannehill has done admirable work in Tennessee and Philip Rivers is still slinging away in Indy, no one in their right minds would take either over Watson or Lawrence moving forward.
The worst news for the Texans concerns their GM search. Jacksonville is now clearly the better job, and the Jaguars have an opening at GM. Who wouldn't want a team with Lawrence, several other high picks and lots of cap room? Compared to the Texans job, it is a no-brainer. The Texans can be fixed, but the Jags will be a much easier path to success. The Texans have Watson and Laremy Tunsil, but that is about it. The new GM will have to decide what to do with J.J. Watt, find free agent help on a terrible defense and do something about the worst running game in the NFL.
Jacksonville has work to do, too, hence the one win. But they have assets to use and are not hamstrung by some of the horrible contracts given out by Bill O'Brien. It would not be a shock if the Texans were the worst team in the AFC South over the next couple years. All because of a game they did not even play.
So while the Jets win might not have seemed to be a big deal on the surface, it was the second loss dealt to the Texans on Sunday after another fumblefest against the Colts.
And this loss could prove to be much more devastating moving forward.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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