SOMETHING SUPER?
Why this Texans team is closer to a Super Bowl than you think
Tyler Frisby
May 8, 2018, 4:47 am
Deshaun Watson resembles a Super Bowl winning quarterback. Bob Levey/Getty Images
It is no secret that the 2018 Houston Texans roster has a few serious areas of concern. With that said, I believe I have found a former Super Bowl champion with an interestingly similar roster that may just provide all Texan fans with a shimmer of hope. So what Super Bowl caliber team could I possibly have in mind, and what could I see them having in common? How about the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. Follow me as I break down each position group, highlighting similarities and differences that I believe point towards the Texans being a surprise title contender this upcoming season.
QB
Starting with the quarterback comparison. In 2013 Russell Wilson was entering into his second season in the NFL. After completing all sixteen regular season games during their Super Bowl run, Wilson finished with a QBR of 101.2, a 63% completion percentage and 209 yards per game passing. (Pro-football-reference.com) For the Texans, Deshaun Watson will be entering into his sophomore season in 2018 and though he did not collect the same Rookie of the Year honors as Wilson did in his first season, it can be argued that if it was not for his midseason ACL injury, he would have been a legitimate candidate for the award. Through just seven games, Watson had a QBR of 103, a completion percentage of 62%, and an average of 242 yards per game. All signs from his rookie season point to Watson progressing much as Wilson did into his sophomore season, with arguably an even higher ceiling for growth. Just as Wilson was for the Seahawks, Watson is an explosive playmaker that will keep any opposing defenses on their heels while giving the Texans a fighting chance.
RB
At the moment, I have to give the advantage of the running back position to the 2013 Seahawks, considering that their backfield was led by five-time Pro Bowler Marshawn Lynch. Lynch bolstered the Seahawks offense with a powerful running style, and also provided the team with a physical smash mouth attitude. While the 2018 Texans have no Marshawn Lynch in their backfield, they do have a potential thunder and lightning duo with Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman. If both backs can stay healthy, the Texans run game can at least keep defenses honest.
WR
The wide receiver position is where the Texans make up some lost ground for the other positions in which they may be lacking. While the Seahawks relied on a young and unproven tandem of Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate, the sheer presence of DeAndre Hopkins gives the Texans wide receiver group the advantage. Not to mention the sparks of game breaking ability shown by Will Fuller who in 2017 snagged seven touchdowns in ten games. With the surprise development of one more receiving piece for Watson to select from, the Texans aerial attack would flourish.
O-line
This is one of the two most important areas of comparison. In 2013 Seattle’s offensive line was littered with injures and according to rotoworld.com, finished the season ranked 20th in the NFL. While the Texans offensive line may have ranked 32nd last season, the signing of free agent Zach Fulton and the return of other pieces from injury make it doubtful that they will perform that poorly again. Yet, what this proves is that it is possible to overcome a below average offensive line if you have a quarterback with the playmaking abilities and elusiveness of Russell Wilson. Lucky for you Texans fans, Deshaun Watson has just that. Even with one of the worst offensive lines in 2017, it was clear that Watson stopped the bleeding and raised his line’s performance while he was on the field. If the Seahawks were able to win a Super Bowl with the pieced together group they had, all hope is not lost for the Texans.
DL & LB
If you can remember, the 2013 Seahawks defense was not only feared because of its secondary but also because of its overpowering and relentless collection of pass rushers and linebackers. Just like the Seahawks, the Texans front seven is an extremely formidable group when they are all healthy. According to teamrankings.com, in 2013, the Seahawks defense tallied up 44 total sacks and gave up an average of 385 yards per game. In 2015, the last season in which the Texans front seven were able to complete a full healthy season, they sacked opposing quarterbacks a total of 45 times and gave up an average of 310 yards per game. Along with the development of the Texans young defensive stars such as Benardrick McKinney and Jadeveon Clowney, a healthy Texans defensive is primed for a return to dominance that could lay the groundwork for a Super Bowl contender.
DB
This is where the biggest deficit exist when it comes to the Texans comparison to the 2013 Seahawks, and their chances of replicating Seattle’s championship roster. The Texans secondary currently draws no comparison to the “Legion of Boom” and most likely never will. With that said, this does not mean all hope is lost. With help from their fierce front seven, the Texans secondary simply has to take care of their most basic responsibilities and make plays when it counts. Houston can also hold out hope that newly acquired safety Tyrann Mathieu will bring a spark to their secondary by playing the role of a scrappy, ball hawking, and tone setting secondary leader much like Earl Thomas was for Seattle.
Final Thoughts
Though at first glance it may seem too good to be true, these similarities lead me to believe that Houston’s current roster has the necessary pieces in place to compete for a Super Bowl. During their championship contending years, by no means was the Seahawks team perfect. Seattle’s Super Bowl aspirations relied on a game-breaking talent at quarterback who like Watson, did not have the pleasure or security of playing behind a solidified offensive line but had a hard-nose defense that never backed down. With the help of a healthy defensive core that has proven the ability to raise the play of lesser talent around them, and an outstanding season from sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson, this Texans team could catch the league by storm and bring a Super Bowl title to Houston.
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.