The Pallilog
Yes, Astros fans, there is still a chance in this World Series
Oct 25, 2019, 6:56 am
Justin Verlander pitches Game 1. Bob Levey/Getty Images
I'm saying there's a chance!
For all my character flaws, being a water-carrying silly homer shill is not among them.
I'm saying there's a chance. For the Astros. In this World Series.
A great chance? No. But slim beats the heck out of none. The way the Nationals beat the heck out of the Astros in game two.
The Astros getting swept or losing in five is more likely than them beating Washington four times in five games. Still, the Astros pulling it off isn't some million-to-one shot. What odds would you have given against the Nationals beating Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander at Minute Maid Park on consecutive nights? Sports happen. Overwhelming momentum, positive or negative, exists. Until it doesn't. A game three win puts them right back in it. A game three loss…
Three times in the World Series the home team lost the first two games then rallied to win the Series. Last to do it, the 1996 Yankees, who dropped two in the Bronx to the defending champion Atlanta Braves then swept the next four. The other teams to go from 0-2 down at home to ultimate glory are the '86 Mets and the '85 Royals.
The Nationals are outstanding. From late May until now, five months, their record is better than the Astros' record. The Nats essentially wipe out the massive starting pitching advantage the Astros held over basically everybody else. The Astros' offense, overhyped by more than a few as one of the greatest of all time, has largely failed this postseason. Yes the hitters face better pitching in the playoffs than they do over the full regular season. Same is true for the Nationals. The Astro offense has been too often too impotent. Jose Altuve is the only guy up from his regular season production rate. The other six offensive mainstays (Springer, Bregman, Brantley, Alvarez, Gurriel, Correa) are all waaaaay down. Time is running out to turn that around.
Faint silver lining of the moment: if the Astros are to win this World Series they'll do so at home.
Where does he rank?
After Altuve's thrilling pennant winning home run vs. the Yankees, I wondered via Tweet whether Altuve now ranks number two in the Houston sports legend pantheon. Talking about greatness, ensuring status in the city forever. Is Altuve now ahead of Earl Campbell? There is no definitive right answer. Your response may be influenced by your age and/or by which sport you prefer. Recency bias can influence. Hakeem Olajuwon remains the very clear number one. No disrespect to individual sport athletes, but they're not relevant to this discussion. Apologies to Simone Biles and Carl Lewis, but cities don't swoon over and revere individual sport athletes.
Ugly situation
Infinitely less fun questions that came out of the AL winning celebration: How big of a jerk is now former Assistant General Manager Brandon Taubman? Or was it just one egregiously vile but not truly character defining moment? Sometimes one strike and you're out. Taubman's behavior was abhorrent and obviously fireable. How despicable was the Astros' handling of the situation? Very.
The Astros win a lot of games. President of Baseball Operations Jeff Luhnow has built a phenomenal baseball organization. It doesn't mean their poop doesn't stink. An amazing level of arrogance had Astros' upper management think theirs doesn't. Taubman was part of Luhnow's inner circle. That Luhnow didn't say anything until Wednesday was weak. His press conference content Thursday was in parts apologetic, embarrassing, and contemptible.
The Astros' first statement, their smear the messenger piece of garbage, was a disgrace. Taubman's apology line "if anyone was offended" was a disgrace. Many wrongs can be righted at least in part. The Astros righted theirs in part with their subsequent "real" investigation (with MLB leaning hard) and apology to Sports Illustrated, SI writer Stephanie Apstein, and others involved. Taubman will have to seek his redemption elsewhere.
When asked about the situation Tuesday before game one, Manager A.J. Hinch spoke briefly with the decency and dignity that escaped several others in the organization.
Slow start
What should be a compelling Rockets' season got underway with a thud Thursday night, a 16 point second half lead blown in a Toyota Center loss to Milwaukee. For the second straight offseason the Rockets did nickel-dimey stuff in filling out their roster, but it's a strong club that given generally good health from the mainstays should win a bunch (50+) of games. That is unlikely to culminate in an NBA Championship since the defense is unlikely to be elite and they'll mix in enough brick-laden three point shooting games to come up short.
Russell Westbrook is one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history. Inside three weeks of turning 31 years old he's not going to suddenly become a good three-point shooter, but Westbrook is a one man fast break like the Rockets have never had, and the relentless passion and intensity with which he plays are compelling. That Harden fella should amass some pretty stout numbers again.
Buzzer Beaters
1. I'm not into karma, but if the Astros lose the Series, man are a whole bunch of people going to be thinking just desserts. 2. Justin Verlander being the only pitcher with an 0-5 World Series record doesn't seem fair. Who says sports are fair? 3. Toughest to name state capitals: Bronze-Kentucky's Silver-Missouri's Gold-Maine's
- It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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