GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: The rain man

Photo by Getty Images.
  • To make it rain; moisture condensed from the atmosphere that falls visibly in separate drops

or

To simply go into a James Harden like moment and make it "rain" but in the form of bets. The objective is still the same.

Don't mind me... I present to you the Bookie Busters. The objective here is dominating Champions League.

Here we go!

New Plays

642

‪MONTREAL IMPACT VS DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA‬

‪FH over 1 risk 3U ‬
‪Game over 3 2U‬

631 cst

‪GEORGIA @ SOUTH CAROLINA ‬

‪2nd half over 83 2U‬

550 CST

SAMFORD @ WESTERN CAROLINA

FH over 76 3U

game over 161 2U


Central Florida at Connecticut FH under 63 1U


Chattanooga at VMI Over 144 3U MAX


2/26   255 HT UPDATE

LYON VS JUVENTUSOver 2 for game 5U MAX BOMB

2/26   150 CST  

CHAMPS LEAGUE

REAL MADRID VS MANCHESTER CITY

FH over 1 5U MAX

Game over 2.5 5U MAX BOMB

2/25   550 CST

TEXAS TECH @ OKLAHOMA

FH under 64 3U

Game under 138 2U


Hornets +11.5 1U

635

KANSAS STATE @ BAYLOR (#2)

Baylor -8.5 Fh 2U

-14.5 2U

654

Mississippi at Auburn

Auburn 2nd half TT over 38.5 2U

Toledo at Central Michigan 2nd half over 83.5 1u4


Xavier 2nd half TT over 38 3U MAX BOMB

656

Parlay 1U

Xavier 2nd half Tt over 38

Baylor -14.5

Lakers over 238.5

805

MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ TORONTO RAPTORS

Toronto ML 3U 2nd half

838 CST

Parlay 1U

Lakers TT over 123

Kings FH -4

Celtics -3.5 FH


Kins Fh -4 2u

848

Parlay 2U

Alabama at Mississippi State

2nd half over 83.5
Lakers TT over 123

Alabama at Mississippi State

2nd half over 83.5 Over 3U MAX

856 CST

NC State/North Carolina Over 79½ 2nd Half

BOMB

Previous Plays

Hampton at Campbell Over 151 2U

England league one

Peterborough vs Southend

Peterborough FH ML 3U

-1.5 3U

Game over 3. 3U

Jazz / Mavs Over 217.5 3U MAX BOMB

Mavs TT over 108.5 1U

Timberwolves +9. If 8.5 buy the hook 2U

RADFORD @ WINTHROP over 141.5 2U

For any questions or comments reach me @Jerryboknowz Twitter.

Be sure to check out my show MoneyLine with Josh Jordan on ESPN 97.5. We're on every Sunday from 10-noon, and we'll talk a lot of fantasy football and NFL gambling. Also, be sure to follow us @Moneyline975 on Twitter.

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Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.

All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.

Hard Hit % - 33.6%

Barrel % - 3.9%

K% - 14.4%

BB% - 13.3%

Chase % - 18.1%

Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.

There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.

His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.

Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.

Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.

The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.

The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.

He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.

Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.

It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.

Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.

Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.

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