HELPING THEIR CAUSE
The 2018 NFL Combine is here for your viewing pleasure
Feb 26, 2018, 6:12 am
Will Baker Mayfield help or hurt his stock? The scouting combine interviews may be the key. Brett Deering/Getty Images
It’s time again for the annual gathering of prospects at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis. I’m as excited as anyone to watch the best young athletes at the NFL’s equivalent to field day. I wonder who will take home the participation ribbon. Maybe if they run faster and jump higher than everyone else they will automatically be an All-Pro at the next level. And then again, maybe not.
For the scouts, coaches, and executives in attendance, the more important aspect of the week will be the interviews and medical evaluations. It’s what the event is about anyway; the other stuff is just measurables to see if the player is on par with his peers. I know the lead up to the draft used to be filled with a player’s 40 time and bench press reps as if it would determine his success at the next level, but I’m glad to see that notion starting to tail off in recent years. Players are still going out there to impress, but as long as they stay near the top range of their position it will be their game film and pre-draft interviews that sets their draft order.
Hopefully 2018 will see less and less of the draft gurus making predictions based on 40 times and vertical jumps. It’s something I’ve never liked. Track skills and football skills are very different things. One is about how well the players perform with no pads after practicing for a month and the other one is about his instinct and reaction time when the play is live. It’s the draft day wizards who put too much stock in combine measurables that sometimes over predict where a player should go in the pecking order.
Not to say that there isn’t some relevance to it though. The reality is that it is much easier for these prospects to hurt their draft stock than it is for them to help it. If their results are on the low end of their group without a noticeable reason, some questions might be raised. If they give a terrible interview or fail the medical portion they can really see a precipitous drop in draft rounds. But being faster by a tenth of a second or stronger by one more rep on the bench press doesn’t weigh too much into the overall evaluation like the players want it to.
Quarterbacks are especially susceptible to combine hype. The phrase “he can make all the throws” gets bandied about like it’s what will be on the back of his jersey. It’s the hardest position to project at the professional level and yet the most important. Now quarterbacks are starting to really assert themselves because of it. Recent years have seen some of the top prospects at the position decide not to throw the ball in Indianapolis, opting only for the medical and team interview portions. Good for them. If they want to showcase their skills then it should be on their terms. Most choose to do so at their school’s pro day where they throw to players they are familiar with and get coaching tips from the ones who got them where they are.
The combine isn’t going away and it is still important in the grand scheme of things. Teams and players can find out if there is a concerning medical issue that might hinder them as a pro. Teams also have the chance to see how a player fares in an interview under the pressure of the week. Most of these guys will leave town in the same draft order they were in when they arrived. Front offices don’t put a ton of stock in combine performances like they might have 15 or 20 years ago. They’ve learned lessons from previous years when a player’s combine performance may have stood out but he was still a bust on Sunday.
If you’re interested in watching your favorite college players give it their best then you can watch the NFL Network starting Tuesday, Feb 27 through Monday, March 5. You might see something special that makes you excited for a player. There might be someone you want your team to draft and you want to scout him for yourself. Maybe you’re just into watching everything football and this is no exception. I will just acknowledge that the combine is going on and watch for any highlights that the internet thinks I should watch. Then I will wait for the draft and try to enjoy the pick my team makes.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.