Patrick Creighton
5 moves to get the Astros back to the World Series
Nov 9, 2018, 3:57 pm
Nelson Cruz would be a good fit. Composite image by Brandon Strange
Coming off a season where the Astros set a franchise record with 103 wins, the bitter taste of a failed postseason stings sharply in their mouths.
The team has shown they aren’t afraid to make bold moves in the offseason, and here are 5 moves that will get the team back on top of the American League, and into the World Series:
1. Trade for Corey Kluber
The Indians are looking to unload salary and reportedly everyone not named Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez is available. The Tribe is already committed to over $94M for 2019 and they are staring down another approximate $33M in arbitration costs (including the already signed contract of Leonys Martin for $3M).
Kluber will be 34 shortly after Opening Day 2019, but is still a Cy Young caliber pitcher. Kluber is coming off a 20 win season with a 2.89 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, and 222K in 215 IP. He is showing no signs of slowing down.
What is even better is that Kluber has an incredibly team-friendly contract. He is only due $13M for 2019 (an absolute steal for a pitcher of his caliber) and team options for 2020 and 2021 at $13.5M & $14M. Plus those team options have buyouts of just $1M, which is an insane bargain.
The Astros had the best rotation in baseball with Verlander, Cole, Keuchel and Morton last season. Replacing Keuchel with Kluber is a solid upgrade, and gives the Astros three legitimate aces in their rotation. With the expectation of Collin McHugh returning to the rotation in the No. 4 spot, it would give the team the flexibility to have a young fifth starter like Josh James develop on the job.
2. Trade for J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto is in his prime, as he will be 28 during Spring Training 2019. He is quite possibly the most complete catcher in the game, a solid defensive receiver with a bat that hits for average and power.
Realmuto is coming off a year where he slashed .277/.340/.484, had 21 HR 74 RBI and a .825 OPS on a brutally bad Marlins team. Packed into the Astros lineup, expect all those numbers to improve significantly between the better pitches he will see in a much stronger lineup and move to a better hitters’ park.
Realmuto is still arbitration eligible for the next two seasons, which means the Astros are in control and don’t have to shell out a long term deal until 2021.
Realmuto’s agent, Jeff Barry, said earlier this week on MLB Network he expects the catcher to be dealt by the Marlins this winter.
3. Sign Nelson Cruz as DH
This one should be the easiest of all. While Cruz is going to be entering his age-38 season, and is a liability in the field to the point where he is strictly a DH, the power in Cruz’s bat is as strong as ever.
Cruz slugged 37 HR last season in only 519 AB, and has averaged (yes, averaged) over 40HR the past 5 seasons. Moving from a pitchers’ park (Safeco) to a hitters’ haven (MMP) and staring down that short left field wall should make Cruz an easy threat for 40+ HR.
Cruz can be the big thumper in a lineup filled with hitters who hit for average, get on base, run the bases well, and hit for extra bases. He would be the biggest power threat on the team. Some of those outs at Safeco will be doubles at Minute Maid too, so an increase in average from Cruz would be likely.
Cruz made $14M last season, which isn’t a bad price for his power. A 2-year deal with a club option on the second year and a modest buyout should be feasible.
4. Sign Daniel Murphy
Ever since his breakout in the 2015 postseason, Daniel Murphy has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He is a high average hitter and a doubles machine. He is left handed, which is important on a team that lacks lefty bats, and he can play 1B, 2B and 3B.
Last season he missed time due to knee surgery, but after a slow start he looked like the same player that tore up the National League the previous two seasons. He finished at .299/.336/.454 with 12 HR and 15 doubles in 328 AB.
Murphy’s line in 2016: .347/.390/.595 25HR 104 RBI 47 Doubles; his 2017 line: .322/.384/.543 23 HR 93 RBI 43 Doubles.
Murphy may be undervalued after only playing half the season last year but he is exactly the kind of player that fits the Astros. High average, tons of extra base hits, defensive versatility, gets on base.
If the team intends to turn Yuli Gurriel into their new Marwin Gonzalez super-utility type, then Murphy as the mostly everyday 1B with the chance to move around the infield should injury strike (Altuve/Correa) is a great make-sense move. A 2-3 (3 with 3rd as a club option) year deal should be feasible to land the soon to be 34 yr old Murphy, who’s career average is just under .300.
5. Sign Craig Kimbrel
The bullpen has been the biggest point of concern on the Astros for the past two seasons, and Kimbrel is still an elite closer. Signing him instantly gives the team the lockdown 9th inning guy they have been seeking and hurts the defending champion Red Sox at the same time.
Kimbrel will not be cheap (think a deal along the lines of the 3 yr, $52M deal Wade Davis got from Colorado last season) but he turns 31 at the end of May, so he’s still in his prime. There will be competition for him, but the Astros have money, so don’t worry about that.
Last season he was still blowing hitters away at a ridiculous rate (96K in 62.1IP) while going 5-1 with 42 saves. He’s still in the discussion as “the Best in the Business” in the ninth. He would instantly be a huge difference maker in the pen.
Five moves to get back to the World Series, although honestly I think these are 5 moves that make them a significant favorite to win it all should they avoid major injury (which goes for any team).
Estimating costs:
Kluber $15M
Realmuto $6M (arb)
Cruz $14M
Murphy $15M
Kimbrel $17M
That is adding approximately $67M to the payroll. Add in the approximate $50M in arbitration costs the team already has, and it’s current salary obligations of 78M, and you are talking about a payroll of approximately $196M(below the all-important luxury tax threshold of $206M) before they make any additional moves (such as finding a taker for Roberto Osuna and his projected $6.5M arbitration number).
It costs a lot to maintain a winner, but the Astros window is now. Considering none of the players being discussed is looking at long term money (all 3 yrs or less), these deals still maintain the flexibility the Astros will want to have going forward.
While the Astros no longer claim the top minor league system (some have been promoted to the big league level, others have been dealt), the Astros farm system is still very deep and loaded with very talented players. Since they are in “win now” mode, dealing from that deep pool will not be a problem for GM Jeff Luhnow, who has already shown he isn’t afraid to pull the trigger.
Patrick Creighton is the host of “Late Hits” on ESPN 97.5FM, and “Straight Heat” on SB Nation Radio. Follow him on Twitter: @PCreighton1
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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