FALCON POINTS
If J.J. Watt can actually return for the playoffs, the potential impact is huge
Dec 24, 2019, 10:39 am
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
The Texans might have given themselves an early Christmas gift.
On Tuesday, the Texans designated J.J. Watt for return from the injured list. They now have a 21-day window to activate him. Watt can return to practice, and the hope is he would be available for the playoffs. Even if he is not 100 percent, Watt would provide a major boost to a struggling defense if he can get on the field.
At 10-5, the Texans finish the season with the Titans on Sunday. For all practical purposes, they are locked in to the four seed in the AFC, barring a surprising Kansas City loss to the Chargers. The reality is most key players should be rested on Sunday, and even if Watt is ready to go, that should include him as well. Having him healthy for a probable playoff game with the Bills would be critical to their chances.
And if he can be ready for the playoffs...
How much impact?
Watt's impact on the defense can't be understated. Even when he is not showing up on the stat sheet, teams have to account for him, freeing up other defenders to make plays.
In the eight games with Watt in the lineup, the Texans had 17 sacks. (That includes the Raiders game where he was injured in the first half and the Texans did not register a sack). In the seven games since, they have 14 sacks, while that may not seem like a big difference, 10 of those 14 came in three games against the Jags, Patriots and last week against the Bucs. The seven games includes another game where they did not register a sack at all and two games where they only had one.
Despite missing those games, Watt remains second on the team with four sacks.
With Watt in the lineup, opponents averaged 362 yards on offense per game. Without him? The Texans have allowed 407 yards per game. With a healthy Watt, they allowed over 400 yards just once, in the opener when they gave up 510 yards to the Saints, thanks in part to a terrible scheme that relied on overmatched defensive backs. In the seven games without him, they have allowed over 400 yards four times, and nearly that - 391 - in the ugly Broncos loss.
Concern about the longterm
While some may want Watt to rest up and fully recover for next season, the simple question is why? Is he risking re-injury? Of course. But he would have all off-season to recover, and if you aren't going to risk it in the playoffs, when would you ever? Isn't that why you play the game? Watt is at the stage of his career where he may not have a lot of games left in him. Having him for a potential playoff run would be huge. Watt has appeared in just 32 of a possible 63 games over the last four seasons so anything you get out of him is a bonus. Play him now, and worry about next year next year.
The next step
Assuming Watt is able to go, even at 80 percent he should help a defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most categories. They have rebuilt the secondary on the fly, and Watt's presence should allow Whitney Mercilus and D.J. Reader more opportunities to put pressure on the quarterback, which would help the corners and safeties in coverage.
If he can play - and after all, that is no lock - it will be great news for a team that has had minimal postseason success. Watt's presence would put the defense as currently built at 100 percent for the first time all season. Watt would join in-season acquisitions Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves and a healthy Bradley Roby in the secondary, something the Texans did not have when Watt went out. Barring a key injury on Sunday, the Texans defense would enter the postseason in as good a shape as they have been all year.
That's if Watt is ready.
We will find out if that happens soon enough.
Of course, if the offense continues to struggle, none of it will matter. But if Watt is ready, it's the best Christmas gift the Texans could have gotten.
- It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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