Composite photo by Brandon Strange
We're living in a crazy time. COVID-19 has shaken the world to its core. Jobs are on the line as the economy continues to suffer. So last week, I made my appeal to replace Bill O'Brien. I haven't been contacted as of this writing, so I'll assume they're not ready for me...yet. I won't give up hope at the moment, and neither should Texans fans.
With all of the shenanigans this guy has pulled off and the power he has amassed, there's still reason for hope. As bleak as things may seem now, I do see a series of events that can lead to O'Brien's exit. This is a case of things getting worse in order for them to get better. Just as a we're going through hard times right now, things will get better. Sometimes you have to take a few steps backwards in order to move forwards. Here's how I see it going:
Another early playoff exit
With a seventh team eligible to make the playoffs this year, it's likely the Texans will make the new expanded field. Nothing will change as they will be out in the first round and in typical embarrassing passion. The fans will see this coming all season and voice their displeasure at the turnstiles and merch sales. The McNairs will feel this displeasure monetarily and will start to get squeamish.
Contract extension troubles
We've already heard Laremy Tunsil turn down a reported $18.5 million dollar per year average deal in hopes of landing something in the $20 million dollar range. Deshaun Watson will look to set the new bar at quarterback which will exceed $35-40 million dollars a year. You know those memes that say start one, bench one cut one? Who do they franchise if neither takes the extensions offered? Do you give in to Tunsil's demands because of the price you paid? You have to at this point. Do you do the same with Watson? You'd be stupid not to. Trading them would be disastrous as we've seen how O'Brien does in that department. His seat is considerably hotter.
A 2021 flameout
Following a second offseason without a first round pick and cap space tied up in guys he failed to sign to extensions in a reasonable amount of time, O'Brien starts the 2021 season 3-7. Fan atendance is at an all-time low. Most season ticket holders are selling their tickets to opposing team fans. Home games look more and more like road games every week. Heading into the bye week, The McNairs pull the trigger midseason and relieve him of all his duties in an attempt to get ahead of the hiring curve. This now gives them a chance to hit reset button, but with major pieces in place.
Who steers the ship now?
With Watson still under contract, a first round pick for the first time in two years, and a fresh start on the football side of the organization, who gets to steer the ship? Hopefully, the rest of the football world continues to sleep on Eric Bienemy and he can be the Yoda to Watson's Luke. If not, I think there are several other candidates out there who'd sell their mother for a chance to work with Watson. The general manager hire would be easy as well considering he'd have a high enough first round pick and some talent already in place. The cap space will be messed up because of what they're paying Watson and Tunsil, but I'm sure one of these bright minds could find a way to figure something out. Things are looking up now.
Like I stated previously, sometimes you hvae to go through hard times in order to get to the bright side. We see this with the quarantine and/or stay in place orders. We have to suffer some setbacks to make major comebacks. I see nothing different about the Texans organization. This too shall pass. Bill O'Brien isn't long for Houston. The only way he survives is if he does the impossible and manages to win a Super Bowl or finds his way into winning and winning big over the next few years with the rag tag roster he's out together. I'd rather have someone cough on me right now than to stay in place for the next three months. I'd rather suffer through a couple bad seasons than see him win here. Yes. I said it.
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The Houston Astros have some big decisions to make this offseason and deciding whether to re-sign Alex Bregman is only part of the equation.
Following the Astros being eliminated by the Tigers, GM Dana Brown said the club may have to get “creative” this offseason, and exploring the trade market could be a real possibility.
With so much salary already committed to Rafael Montero, Jose Abreu, and Lance McCullers for the 2025 season, it's hard to believe the club will be spending a bunch of money in free agency.
Which also means they may elect to let Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi come off the books permanently and sign elsewhere.
(For the purposes of this video, we're going to be talking about the pitching specifically. If you want to hear our thoughts on the outlook for the offense, be sure to watch our video from last week. You can find it here.)
If the Astros do consider making a trade this offseason, which pitchers would make the most sense to deal? Let's start with Framber Valdez. The club should be able to get a big haul for Framber, and he's projected to make around $18 million this season.
Framber is also a free agent after 2025, so his time in Houston may be coming to an end in the near future anyway.
Typically, we wouldn't consider the possibility of the Astros trading Framber one year before free agency. History tells us they let players walk after the final year of their contract. They didn't trade Bregman before the 2024 season, and we know what happened with George Springer, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Correa.
But the Astros are in a different place now than they were a few years ago. The current version of the Astros aren't nearly as deep as those other teams.
The 'Stros don't regularly win 100 games like they used to. They're just another contending team over the past two seasons. But fortunately for them, they're in the AL West. So they should have a great shot to win the division once again.
But as currently constructed, they're not the dominate team they were a few years ago. Trading Valdez could bring some young talent into the organization and safe the club money that could be reallocated to other parts of the team (outfield, first base). They should be looking for a trade similar to what the Brewers received for Corbin Burnes.
If the Astros don't plan on offering Framber a long-term deal, then why not get something for him while they still can?
Astros owner Jim Crane would probably argue that he wouldn't want to trade away his best pitcher in what could be Kyle Tucker's final year with Houston. Which is a fair point, and why this probably won't happen, considering their history with players in the final year of their contracts. But based on everything laid out above, it might be time for a change in philosophy.
Another player they could look to move is Ryan Pressly. Would he be willing to waive his no-trade clause for the right situation? Pressly is 35 years old and in the last year of his contract. He's set to make $14 million this season, and one could argue that it's time for Bryan Abreu to take over the setup role. Pressly has done some amazing things for this organization, but $14 million for a seventh inning guy is hard to justify. And just to be clear, we're not letting Josh Hader off the hook. Pressly had a lower ERA than Hader in 2024. But good luck finding anyone that would trade for Hader's massive contract.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we evaluate the Astros pitching staff heading into 2025, and explore some trade possibilities that could improve the roster in the short and long-term!