Composite photo by Brandon Strange
We're living in a crazy time. COVID-19 has shaken the world to its core. Jobs are on the line as the economy continues to suffer. So last week, I made my appeal to replace Bill O'Brien. I haven't been contacted as of this writing, so I'll assume they're not ready for me...yet. I won't give up hope at the moment, and neither should Texans fans.
With all of the shenanigans this guy has pulled off and the power he has amassed, there's still reason for hope. As bleak as things may seem now, I do see a series of events that can lead to O'Brien's exit. This is a case of things getting worse in order for them to get better. Just as a we're going through hard times right now, things will get better. Sometimes you have to take a few steps backwards in order to move forwards. Here's how I see it going:
Another early playoff exit
With a seventh team eligible to make the playoffs this year, it's likely the Texans will make the new expanded field. Nothing will change as they will be out in the first round and in typical embarrassing passion. The fans will see this coming all season and voice their displeasure at the turnstiles and merch sales. The McNairs will feel this displeasure monetarily and will start to get squeamish.
Contract extension troubles
We've already heard Laremy Tunsil turn down a reported $18.5 million dollar per year average deal in hopes of landing something in the $20 million dollar range. Deshaun Watson will look to set the new bar at quarterback which will exceed $35-40 million dollars a year. You know those memes that say start one, bench one cut one? Who do they franchise if neither takes the extensions offered? Do you give in to Tunsil's demands because of the price you paid? You have to at this point. Do you do the same with Watson? You'd be stupid not to. Trading them would be disastrous as we've seen how O'Brien does in that department. His seat is considerably hotter.
A 2021 flameout
Following a second offseason without a first round pick and cap space tied up in guys he failed to sign to extensions in a reasonable amount of time, O'Brien starts the 2021 season 3-7. Fan atendance is at an all-time low. Most season ticket holders are selling their tickets to opposing team fans. Home games look more and more like road games every week. Heading into the bye week, The McNairs pull the trigger midseason and relieve him of all his duties in an attempt to get ahead of the hiring curve. This now gives them a chance to hit reset button, but with major pieces in place.
Who steers the ship now?
With Watson still under contract, a first round pick for the first time in two years, and a fresh start on the football side of the organization, who gets to steer the ship? Hopefully, the rest of the football world continues to sleep on Eric Bienemy and he can be the Yoda to Watson's Luke. If not, I think there are several other candidates out there who'd sell their mother for a chance to work with Watson. The general manager hire would be easy as well considering he'd have a high enough first round pick and some talent already in place. The cap space will be messed up because of what they're paying Watson and Tunsil, but I'm sure one of these bright minds could find a way to figure something out. Things are looking up now.
Like I stated previously, sometimes you hvae to go through hard times in order to get to the bright side. We see this with the quarantine and/or stay in place orders. We have to suffer some setbacks to make major comebacks. I see nothing different about the Texans organization. This too shall pass. Bill O'Brien isn't long for Houston. The only way he survives is if he does the impossible and manages to win a Super Bowl or finds his way into winning and winning big over the next few years with the rag tag roster he's out together. I'd rather have someone cough on me right now than to stay in place for the next three months. I'd rather suffer through a couple bad seasons than see him win here. Yes. I said it.
As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!