Composite photo by Brandon Strange
We're living in a crazy time. COVID-19 has shaken the world to its core. Jobs are on the line as the economy continues to suffer. So last week, I made my appeal to replace Bill O'Brien. I haven't been contacted as of this writing, so I'll assume they're not ready for me...yet. I won't give up hope at the moment, and neither should Texans fans.
With all of the shenanigans this guy has pulled off and the power he has amassed, there's still reason for hope. As bleak as things may seem now, I do see a series of events that can lead to O'Brien's exit. This is a case of things getting worse in order for them to get better. Just as a we're going through hard times right now, things will get better. Sometimes you have to take a few steps backwards in order to move forwards. Here's how I see it going:
Another early playoff exit
With a seventh team eligible to make the playoffs this year, it's likely the Texans will make the new expanded field. Nothing will change as they will be out in the first round and in typical embarrassing passion. The fans will see this coming all season and voice their displeasure at the turnstiles and merch sales. The McNairs will feel this displeasure monetarily and will start to get squeamish.
Contract extension troubles
We've already heard Laremy Tunsil turn down a reported $18.5 million dollar per year average deal in hopes of landing something in the $20 million dollar range. Deshaun Watson will look to set the new bar at quarterback which will exceed $35-40 million dollars a year. You know those memes that say start one, bench one cut one? Who do they franchise if neither takes the extensions offered? Do you give in to Tunsil's demands because of the price you paid? You have to at this point. Do you do the same with Watson? You'd be stupid not to. Trading them would be disastrous as we've seen how O'Brien does in that department. His seat is considerably hotter.
A 2021 flameout
Following a second offseason without a first round pick and cap space tied up in guys he failed to sign to extensions in a reasonable amount of time, O'Brien starts the 2021 season 3-7. Fan atendance is at an all-time low. Most season ticket holders are selling their tickets to opposing team fans. Home games look more and more like road games every week. Heading into the bye week, The McNairs pull the trigger midseason and relieve him of all his duties in an attempt to get ahead of the hiring curve. This now gives them a chance to hit reset button, but with major pieces in place.
Who steers the ship now?
With Watson still under contract, a first round pick for the first time in two years, and a fresh start on the football side of the organization, who gets to steer the ship? Hopefully, the rest of the football world continues to sleep on Eric Bienemy and he can be the Yoda to Watson's Luke. If not, I think there are several other candidates out there who'd sell their mother for a chance to work with Watson. The general manager hire would be easy as well considering he'd have a high enough first round pick and some talent already in place. The cap space will be messed up because of what they're paying Watson and Tunsil, but I'm sure one of these bright minds could find a way to figure something out. Things are looking up now.
Like I stated previously, sometimes you hvae to go through hard times in order to get to the bright side. We see this with the quarantine and/or stay in place orders. We have to suffer some setbacks to make major comebacks. I see nothing different about the Texans organization. This too shall pass. Bill O'Brien isn't long for Houston. The only way he survives is if he does the impossible and manages to win a Super Bowl or finds his way into winning and winning big over the next few years with the rag tag roster he's out together. I'd rather have someone cough on me right now than to stay in place for the next three months. I'd rather suffer through a couple bad seasons than see him win here. Yes. I said it.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
It would be kind of funny if Christian Walker simply decided he wanted to check out what the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is all about. “Ow, my left oblique feels kind of sore. How about sending me to Houston for the weekend to get an MRI?” That would be quite a bodacious move, and total bull (props to you if you see what I did there). Of course, faking pain is not the case, and the Astros now cross their fingers that their 60-million dollar free agent signee doesn’t start his Houston tenure on the injured list. It certainly isn’t encouraging to know that Walker missed about 20 percent of last season with a left oblique injury. In 2021 he spent two stints on the IL because of right oblique problems. Obviously the Astros want return on their investment as quickly and as substantially as possible, but they would be fools not to treat this conservatively. Walker turns 34 years old the second day of the regular season. No one should be having night sweats just yet over the possibility that Walker is about to become Jose Abreu 2.0. Abreu was 36 when he debuted with the Astros. However, it is accurate to note that Abreu had a significantly higher WAR in his last season before joining the Astros than did Walker.
If Walker turns out to be sidelined for a month, that would mean the Astros need a first baseman for the first week and a half or so of the regular season. Let the drumbeat for Cam Smith begin! The sample size remains laughably small, but Smith continues to speak softly and swing a very, very big stick. If you’ll accept a .636 batting average as pretty good. It’s only 11 at bats. But yowza! If Walker is to be down into the regular season, and Smith keeps rocketing line drives in the Grapefruit League, the plot thickens. Smith only has 19 at bats above single-A. That’s 19 more than Albert Pujols had when the St. Louis Cardinals decided to have him in their lineup to begin the 2001 season. Albert did fairly well. He’s merely the greatest first baseman in National League history.
The much more conservative approach would be a platoon with Jon Singleton in the lineup against most right-handed pitchers and whoever is not catching between Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini playing against lefties. Zach Dezenzo would be another option. Cam Smith is not an option to play first base, at least not early in 2025. Just in the last few days, he’s started doing some outfield drills because of the possible pathway to the big club in right field that I wrote about last week. Cam Smith is not going to make a huge jump to the big leagues and basically try to learn a new position on the fly there. However, Isaac Paredes owns a first baseman’s glove. Paredes started 13 games at first for the Rays last season. He made 40 starts total at first over the last three seasons, his only big league starts at first, after a grand total of two at first in the minors. Paredes temporarily moving to first would open up third base for Smith. Just sayin’...
What's in a name?
File this more under trivial than trivia, but here goes. When Isaac Paredes takes the field in the season opener, he officially becomes the third Paredes in Astros’ history. Utility man Jimmy Paredes got some run during the franchise deep in the abyss stage from 2010-13. Relief pitcher Enoli Paredes got 32 1/3 innings in over three seasons 2020-22. There have been only six guys named Paredes in MLB history. Come March 27 the Astros will have had half of them.
On the farm
MLB Pipeline this week released its in order ranking of the Astros’ top 30 prospects. Cam Smith is the obvious number one. Brice Matthews is number two. Drafted as a shortstop, Matthews has a better route to the bigs as a second baseman, given the Astros’ weak depth chart there with Jose Altuve becoming primarily a left fielder. Outfielder Jacob Melton is third. Considering the present state of the Astros’ outfield and that Melton turns 25 this September, if worth a darn, he should play his way on to the 26-man roster at some point this year. Catcher Walker Yanek ranks fourth. He was the Astros’ first round pick last July. Dezenzo rounds out the top five.
We’re under three weeks until Opening Day. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!