The Pallilog
After finally dispatching Rays, Astros get long anticipated showdown with Yankees
Oct 11, 2019, 5:54 am
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It wasn't inevitable, but an Astros-Yankees American League Championship Series was the most likely pairing and most anticipated matchup in the AL playoffs. We get the payoff starting Saturday night. More on it a couple of paragraphs down. But first…
Credit to the Rays for pushing the Astros the distance in the Division Series. Ultimately, more credit to the Astros for their championship caliber response with their previously mostly dormant offense exploding for four runs in the bottom of the first of Thursday night's decisive game five. That was more than enough for Gerrit Cole who was overpowering and brilliant in both his starts in the series.
There have been postseason series pitching performances that go down as greater than Cole's but only in best of seven series. For one pitcher to so dominate a best of five? The top challenger that comes to mind there victimized the Astros. In a 1998 NLDS Kevin Brown throttled them twice. In game one Brown threw eight innings of two hit 16 strikeout shutout ball, then on three days rest he pitched into the seventh inning giving up just one run. The Padres won both games 2-1. Brown gets bonus points for snuffing an Astros' 1998 offense which was tremendous, vastly superior to the Rays' offense Cole destroyed. On the other hand, Brown didn't start a game with his team facing elimination.
The clear on paper edge for the Astros over the Yankees is in starting pitching. The Rays pushing them five means neither Cole nor Justin Verlander goes in the series opener Saturday night. Zack Greinke was a disaster in his start at St. Petersburg. While it's not redemption he pitches for in game one the Astros could really use him to pitch at least decently. The Yankees are going to score runs. Their lineup is spectacularly deep, power laden top to bottom even more so than the Astros' lineup, and patient. Pitch counts in Cole's and Verlander's starts loom important. The Yankees rate the clear edge out of the bullpen, it's better and deeper.
If it is to be a seven game series, Greinke going in game one works out fine for the Astros. It's highly unlikely the Astros again use a starting pitcher on three days rest, so Greinke sets up for games one and five, Verlander for games two and six, and if the Astros have another winner takes all game coming, Gerrit Cole would start it again, at Minute Maid Park again, after he goes in game three at Yankee Stadium.
Two years ago in the ALCS between these two the home team won all seven games. That is unlikely to happen again, but a reprise of Astros in seven seems a quite viable guess/prediction. From the 1920s forward, the Yankees have gone no decade without reaching at least one World Series. The Astros can snap that near 100 years run over the next week and a half.
With the Dodgers out in the National League some will talk of Astros-Yankees as the de facto World Series. That of course is stupid. Whoever wins the NLCS between the Nationals and Cardinals will obviously be capable of winning, but the AL Champ will be the rightful favorite.
Texans can make a statement
After five games we really have no idea what to make of the 3-2 Texans. A phenomenal offensive showing against the Falcons last Sunday came just one week after a pitiful offensive showing against the Panthers the week before. The Falcons stink. The components of Texans' offense are really promising. A healthy Will Fuller not dropping balls makes him more dangerous to defenses than DeAndre Hopkins. The offensive line will probably continue its ups and downs, but starting rookie first and second round picks means the up percentage should grow as the season goes along. Overpaying in draft picks for Laremy Tunsil is problematic down the road, but he is a vast upgrade anchoring Deshaun Watson's blind side.
Excellence requires consistency. We should have a better grasp of what the 2019 Texans might be after these next two Sundays as they play at Kansas City and Indianapolis. This past Sunday night the Colts largely shutdown the Chiefs' usually sensational offense and did so with a banged up defense. Patrick Mahomes was gimpy and mortal looking. Splitting these two games would be fine, if you had your pick the Colts game should be the choice since it's a division game. If somehow the Texans win both to be 5-2, they become the lead horse in the race in the race for the second AFC first round playoff bye. Losing both is more likely than winning both.
Buzzer beaters
1. Who knows how the game will go but Texas +11 is the side to play vs. OU. 2. Lock of the weekend: Daryl Morey goes this weekend Tweet-less. 3. Greatest single series pitching performances since 1980: Bronze-Mike Scott 1986 NLCS Silver-Madison Bumgarner 2014 World Series Gold-Randy Johnson 2001 World Series
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This week started on a high note for Astros fans as they were able to see Lance McCullers return and pitch in a game for the first time since 2022. McCullers looked good, only needing 13 pitches to get through the inning, and didn't allow any runs.
If McCullers continues on this path without any setbacks, we wouldn't be surprised if he's pitching for the big league club at the end of April or early May.
However, the outlook isn't nearly as positive for Luis Garcia, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Garcia was expected to throw a live BP on Thursday, but those plans have now changed. According to multiple reports, Garcia is dealing with elbow soreness and will now see team doctors for further evaluation.
Luis Garcia faced hitters in October and, almost all winter, was considered ahead of Lance McCullers Jr. in their rehab schedules. It's unclear how things have derailed. The Astros reiterated this week they will not make any member of their medical staff available for interviews https://t.co/rrBg6EaG7j
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) March 20, 2025
This isn't the first time Garcia has dealt with a setback in his recovery. As Chandler Rome mentions in the post above, Garcia was expected to be ready to return before McCullers. However, complications have apparently forced the Astros to slow down Garcia's rehab, making his status for this season even more uncertain.
Fortunately for Houston, they weren't counting on Garcia or McCullers to start the season in the rotation. But, they were hoping to have both return at some point this year to add more depth to the roster.
If Garcia is shut down from throwing for several weeks, even in a best-case scenario, it's hard to imagine he'll be ready to contribute over the next three months. The Astros would be wise to play it safe with Garcia, the last thing they want to happen is for him to need another surgery.
This also serves as a reminder that pitchers often require more than the typical 12–18 months to recover. Which is why counting on Cristian Javier to contribute this season, feels like a big ask for a player that had Tommy John surgery in June.