NFL DRAFT PREVIEW
A.J. Hoffman: 3 players I like, 3 I don't in the NFL Draft
Apr 26, 2018, 6:00 am
Lamar Jackson is not a player to take in the first round. Andy Lyons
The NFL Draft starts tonight, and by now you have probably seen 100 different mock drafts and maybe even more people telling you who is overrated and who is underrated. Obviously, where a player gets drafted can impact how good or bad he can be, but I thought I would profile a few players that I like blindly and a few players that I don’t. I tried to limit the “players I like” to players that I have heard others question. For instance, I didn’t pick Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb, because basically EVERYONE likes those guys. Without further ado…
PLAYERS I LIKE
Calvin Ridley-WR-Alabama
Calvin Ridley isn’t usually the type of wide receiver I rave about. He is barely 6’0” tall and is well under 200 lbs., but there is more to him than meets the eye. He is one of the sharpest route runners I have ever seen, and that combined with his deep speed and burst off the line gives him great separation, and size starts to matter less the more separation a receiver can get on the route. Alabama has put some pretty good receivers in the league (Amari Cooper and Julio Jones) but for some reason I keep hearing Ridley’s name falling late in the 1st round, and I think he is a top-10 caliber player.
Isaiah Oliver-CB-Colorado
I have not seen his name at the top of the cornerback rankings, but Isaiah Oliver has all the physical tools I am looking for in a cornerback. At 6’0”, 200 lbs. with a 33.5 arms, he is going to be hard to put a football over. He does a good job in early jams to force receivers to alter routes, and shows the kind of raw talent that could end up being way better than scouts currently project him. Oliver also has seen pretty good competition in college, going up against Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Luke Falk in the Pac-12. I think he would be a good fit in Seattle, Atlanta or a similar cover-3 type defense.
Jamarco Jones-OT-Ohio State
Jamarco Jones is almost assuredly not going on day 1, and I don’t have a problem with that, but I think he should go early day 2 considering he plays a position that is always in such high demand. Most of the questions about Jones seem to stem from him playing in Urban Meyer’s offense, but I don’t see much not to like about him. He is 6’5, 312 lbs and his game footage shows him being a solid pass blocker and a really outstanding run blocker down the field. He has excellent feet and doesn’t get cheated against speed rushers. He may be the only tackle prospect that won’t be taken in the first round that I see as a potential day 1 starter at the next level. Teams like Houston, Denver and Indianapolis should all be taking a look at this guy.
PLAYERS I DON’T LIKE
Lamar Jackson-QB-Louisville
Let me start off by saying I am not someone who thinks that Lamar Jackson should be moving positions or he can’t play quarterback in the NFL. I actually look at him as a high upside player who could be a special talent if he gets some fundamentals down. That said, I am not looking to use a first round draft pick on a guy who has serious footwork and accuracy issues. Those two things are much more important to me than athletic ability, which he has in droves. Another turn-off for me is his build, which reminds me a lot of Robert Griffin III’s. If Jackson had Cam Newton’s size, I would be less concerned about having a run-first quarterback. If a team can afford to use their first round pick on a long-term project with a seemingly high injury risk, so be it, but I don’t know many teams that are run that way.
Christian Kirk-WR-Texas A&M
This might not be fair, because if someone is looking for a slot receiver, Kirk could make some sense. I just don’t believe many teams look at slot receiver as a top priority where they are willing to use a first or second round pick on someone who seems limited to being just that. He also has some issues with his hands, and too often lets balls get into his chest. He doesn’t have ideal size for me at 5’10” and could conceivably struggle with press coverage at the NFL level. He isn’t without upside, as he has big-play ability, he is a solid return man and by all accounts is a very high-character guy. That just isn’t enough for me to consider him a top option at wide receiver.
Mark Andrews-TE-Oklahoma
This is mostly my way of saying that there isn’t really an every down tight end in this draft (save maybe 25 year old Hayden Hurst), and Andrews seems to be the most highly touted of the bunch. He has good size at 6’5” 255, and is actually a pretty decent route runner given that size. His hands are a major problem. He drops a lot of balls, and some of it is probably a concentration issue, but it is an issue regardless. He was a decent blocker in college, but can’t be counted on as a primary blocker in the NFL. He also seems to quit on plays that he isn’t involved in, which might be my biggest pet peeve in a tight end.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.