FINAL FOUR
A.J. Hoffman: Predicting this weekend's Final Four games
Mar 30, 2018, 7:26 am
We are down to four. All of these teams have had a tough path to this point, and all of them have absolutely earned the right to be in San Antonio. Here is a quick look at the first two matchups that will decide who will play for the right to cut down the nets on Monday.
Loyola is the undisputed Cinderella of the dance this year, and they are hoping there are a couple more chapters left in their storybook season. Loyola does a good job of spacing the floor on offense, and are always willing to make the extra pass. Coach Porter Moser prefers to play a small lineup, sometimes playing with five guards. When they go big, the key for them is Cameron Krutwig, at least on the offensive end of the floor. He could be a key factor for Loyola on that end, but he is a serious liability against the pick and roll offense of Michigan on the other end of the floor. Michigan showed against Texas A&M what they, and particularly Moe Wagner, can do when your bigs can’t defend on the perimeter. For this reason I would expect Loyola to play with a mostly small lineup and try to win with Clayton Custer penetrating and defenses collapsing on him to open up teammates. Assuming the small lineup is in play, Michigan is going to have a massive size advantage. Wagner is 6’11”. Duncan Robinson is 6’8.” Even Charles Matthews, at 6’6” is going to have a size advantage over the Ramblers guards. All of these guys can shoot, and all of them create matchup problems on offense. If Loyola can keep their shooting percentage around their season average of 50%, they could play for the title on Monday. As fun as that would be, it will be tough against one of the best defenses in the country.
PREDICTION: Michigan 65, Loyola 61
Villanova -5, O/U 155
Villanova is the best offensive team in the country. They score 87 points per game. They shoot 50% from the floor and they average 12 3-pointers per game. They are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, and they don’t turn the ball over. This is a juggernaut offense. Jalen Brunson should be the player of the year, and he has looked unstoppable in the tournament. This team can play defense too, though. They beat Texas Tech on that end, and they will look to do it again against the Jayhawks. Kansas looks like Nova in a lot of ways. They are excellent from distance, with their backcourt of Malik Newman, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, and Devonte’ Graham leading the way. Graham is just as legit a contender for Player of the Year honors as Brunson. Their 7-footer, Udoka Azubuike, could be the X-factor in the matchup. He was key in Kansas’ win over Duke, who are better in the frontcourt than the Wildcats, but Jay Wright has a way of making opposing big men seem obsolete. Newman has been unstoppable in this tournament, but Nova has Mikal Bridges to defend him. Bridges is a likely NBA lottery pick who presents a different level of size and athleticism than Newman has seen in the tournament. It’s easy to say whoever hits their shots will win this game, but Nova’s ability to play 5-out and Kansas’ inability to match it seems to be the key in this matchup.
PREDICTION: Villanova 91, Kansas 79
Looming over baseball is a likely lockout in December 2026, a possible management push for a salary cap and perhaps lost regular-season games for the first time since 1995.
“No one’s talking about it, but we all know that they’re going to lock us out for it, and then we’re going to miss time,” New York Mets All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso said Monday at the All-Star Game. “We’re definitely going to fight to not have a salary cap and the league’s obviously not going to like that.”
Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred and some owners have cited payroll disparity as a problem, while at the same time MLB is working to address a revenue decline from regional sports networks. Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball has never had a salary cap because its players staunchly oppose one.
Despite higher levels of luxury tax that started in 2022, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have pushed payrolls to record levels. The last small-market MLB club to win a World Series was the Kansas City Royals in 2015.
After signing outfielder Juan Soto to a record $765 million contract, New York opened this season with an industry-high $326 million payroll, nearly five times Miami’s $69 million, according to Major League Baseball’s figures. Using luxury tax payrolls, based on average annual values that account for future commitments and include benefits, the Dodgers were first at $400 million and on track to owe a record luxury tax of about $151 million — shattering the previous tax record of $103 million set by Los Angeles last year.
“When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” Manfred told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “I identify a problem in the media business and explain to them that owners need to change to address that problem. I then identify a second problem that we need to work together and that is that there are fans in a lot of our markets who feel like we have a competitive balance problem.”
Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2026, and management lockouts have become the norm, which shifts the start of a stoppage to the offseason. During the last negotiations, the sides reached a five-year deal on March 10 after a 99-day lockout, salvaging a 162-game 2022 season.
“A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game,” union head Tony Clark said Tuesday. “A cap is about franchise values and profits. ... A salary cap historically has limited contract guarantees associated with it, literally pits one player against another and is often what we share with players as the definitive non-competitive system. It doesn’t reward excellence. It undermines it from an organizational standpoint. That’s why this is not about competitive balance. It’s not about a fair versus not. This is institutionalized collusion.”
The union’s opposition to a cap has paved the way for record-breaking salaries for star players. Soto’s deal is believed to be the richest in pro sports history, eclipsing Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers signed a year earlier. By comparison, the biggest guaranteed contract in the NFL is $250 million for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Manfred cites that 10% of players earn 72% of salaries.
“I never use the word `salary’ within one of `cap,’” he said. “What I do say to them is in addressing this competitive issue that’s real we should think about whether this system is the perfect system from a players’ perspective.”
A management salary cap proposal could contain a salary floor and a guaranteed percentage of revenue to players. Baseball players have endured nine work stoppages, including a 7 1/2-month strike in 1994-95 that fought off a cap proposal.
Agent Scott Boras likens a cap plan to attracting kids to a “gingerbread house.”
“We’ve heard it for 20 years. It’s almost like the childhood fable,” he said. “This very traditional, same approach is not something that would lead the younger players to the gingerbread house.”