NO DEAL!
Analyzing all the reasons the Astros were silent at the deadline
Sep 2, 2020, 1:44 pm
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
James Click didn't pull the trigger on any moves prior to Monday's deadline, choosing to roll forward with the team as is for the rest of the year. Extenuating circumstances related to the virus aside, it's a departure from the status quo for the Astros. The Astros were loud at the deadline last year, getting Zack Greinke. They were loud (and controversial) in 2018 when they got Roberto Osuna. They were quiet at the deadline in 2017, but famously followed it up by getting Justin Verlander at the buzzer in August in the last season where waiver trades were allowed. The team was similarly buzzy in 2015, getting Carlos Gomez and Scott Kazmir leading up to the deadline.
It's been half a decade of being massive trade deadline players for Astros fans. Yes, the pandemic certainly had a lot to do with the lack of activity. However, it's also a new regime in charge. Jeff Luhnow no longer runs the ship.
The Astros were linked to some arms, specifically relievers. Trevor Rosenthal, who eventually went to San Diego, and Archie Bradley, who went to Cincinnati, were two arms linked to the Astros that seemed plausible. While bullpen help and pitching depth is always nice, there really isn't a clear need there for the Astros.
Yes, the bullpen isn't in great shape at the moment, as they were responsible for the loss last night, but it should improve naturally by the end of the season. Roberto Osuna is working hard to get back before the end of the year. Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock are nearing a return. Josh James should be back eventually. Two pitchers currently in the rotation will slide to the bullpen when Jose Urquidy and Justin Verlander return, and a third will slide to the bullpen when rotations shorten to four arms in the postseason. Lastly, two of the young arms in Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor have proven themselves as reliable bullpen options.
Take a look at this:
Justin Verlander
Zack Greinke
Lance McCullers
Jose Urquidy
Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Brad Peacock, Josh James, Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor, Chris Devenski, Cristian Javier
That staff and bullpen is plenty good enough to win a World Series, especially with an offense as potent as Houston's. The Astros' biggest deadline acquisitions are coming from the Alternate Training Site in Corpus Christi.
Trading for an outfield bat also seemed like a legitimate option. With Yordan Alvarez on the shelf for the season, there's not a set-in-stone everyday DH, meaning a trade acquisition could play there. The acquisition, if it were an outfielder or DH, would serve as insurance for losing one or more of Michael Brantley, George Springer, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel in free agency. Brantley, Reddick, and Gurriel have all played well this year, and Springer is playing better of late. Yes, those guys could very well be gone in the offseason, but those voids can also be addressed in the offseason. They can also be addressed more easily, since teams won't be limited to only the players in the 60-man player pool for each franchise. But, since the Astros don't need a bat to win RIGHT NOW, and the openings can be addressed in the offseason, there's not a need to make a deal right now.
Lastly, the farm system has been decimated through the graduation of prospects, the underperformance of prospects, and trades for big leaguers. Combine the already thin farm system with the fact that the Astros didn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2020 and won't have a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2021 means it won't be getting less thin anytime soon. The few prospects the Astros do have are more valuable to the Astros than other teams, because they really do need the depth.
Fangraphs put the Astros odds at winning a World Series as the third best in baseball. This is a really good team, and there really weren't any clear upgrades available. If there were a deal that made sense for Houston, James Click would've done it. In this case, the deals he didn't make made the most sense.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.