NO DEAL!
Analyzing all the reasons the Astros were silent at the deadline
Sep 2, 2020, 1:44 pm
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
James Click didn't pull the trigger on any moves prior to Monday's deadline, choosing to roll forward with the team as is for the rest of the year. Extenuating circumstances related to the virus aside, it's a departure from the status quo for the Astros. The Astros were loud at the deadline last year, getting Zack Greinke. They were loud (and controversial) in 2018 when they got Roberto Osuna. They were quiet at the deadline in 2017, but famously followed it up by getting Justin Verlander at the buzzer in August in the last season where waiver trades were allowed. The team was similarly buzzy in 2015, getting Carlos Gomez and Scott Kazmir leading up to the deadline.
It's been half a decade of being massive trade deadline players for Astros fans. Yes, the pandemic certainly had a lot to do with the lack of activity. However, it's also a new regime in charge. Jeff Luhnow no longer runs the ship.
The Astros were linked to some arms, specifically relievers. Trevor Rosenthal, who eventually went to San Diego, and Archie Bradley, who went to Cincinnati, were two arms linked to the Astros that seemed plausible. While bullpen help and pitching depth is always nice, there really isn't a clear need there for the Astros.
Yes, the bullpen isn't in great shape at the moment, as they were responsible for the loss last night, but it should improve naturally by the end of the season. Roberto Osuna is working hard to get back before the end of the year. Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock are nearing a return. Josh James should be back eventually. Two pitchers currently in the rotation will slide to the bullpen when Jose Urquidy and Justin Verlander return, and a third will slide to the bullpen when rotations shorten to four arms in the postseason. Lastly, two of the young arms in Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor have proven themselves as reliable bullpen options.
Take a look at this:
Justin Verlander
Zack Greinke
Lance McCullers
Jose Urquidy
Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Brad Peacock, Josh James, Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor, Chris Devenski, Cristian Javier
That staff and bullpen is plenty good enough to win a World Series, especially with an offense as potent as Houston's. The Astros' biggest deadline acquisitions are coming from the Alternate Training Site in Corpus Christi.
Trading for an outfield bat also seemed like a legitimate option. With Yordan Alvarez on the shelf for the season, there's not a set-in-stone everyday DH, meaning a trade acquisition could play there. The acquisition, if it were an outfielder or DH, would serve as insurance for losing one or more of Michael Brantley, George Springer, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel in free agency. Brantley, Reddick, and Gurriel have all played well this year, and Springer is playing better of late. Yes, those guys could very well be gone in the offseason, but those voids can also be addressed in the offseason. They can also be addressed more easily, since teams won't be limited to only the players in the 60-man player pool for each franchise. But, since the Astros don't need a bat to win RIGHT NOW, and the openings can be addressed in the offseason, there's not a need to make a deal right now.
Lastly, the farm system has been decimated through the graduation of prospects, the underperformance of prospects, and trades for big leaguers. Combine the already thin farm system with the fact that the Astros didn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2020 and won't have a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2021 means it won't be getting less thin anytime soon. The few prospects the Astros do have are more valuable to the Astros than other teams, because they really do need the depth.
Fangraphs put the Astros odds at winning a World Series as the third best in baseball. This is a really good team, and there really weren't any clear upgrades available. If there were a deal that made sense for Houston, James Click would've done it. In this case, the deals he didn't make made the most sense.
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Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.