Every-Thing Sports
Are the Texans lucky the Colts are out of Luck?
Aug 24, 2019, 10:10 pm
Jonathan Ferrey
The news came out of nowhere. It was like one of those crack back blocks on an interception return. That defensive tackle has been getting shut out all game long. He hasn't been able to stop the run or push the pocket. The quarterback has been teasing him all game long and talking mad trash. And then it happened. He finally got some pressure, forced an interception, now he's looking to through a block. Soon as he turns around...WHAM! He lays the quarterback out with as vicious of a legal hit he can.
That's the best way I can describe Colt's quarterback Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement. I was taking a shower and shaving my head. I heard my phone buzz a few times and saw my good friend Joe Hutchinson texted me twice. I quickly did a search and saw the news had just come out and was confirmed by several reliable sites within the minutes of me looking it up. My initial thought: Texans fans are about to hit the roof with excitement. But should they? How does Luck's sudden retirement effect the chances the Texans have in winning the division this year? What are some obstacles they'll face?
History of mediocrity
"We went 9-7 and won the AFC South two years in a row." Bill O'Brien's statement is the epitome of them being mediocre. This organization has been satisfied with average since its inception. Their obsession with the Patriots is akin to a little brother who's not happy with his C average level of work constantly trying to replicate big brother's A average work and always falling short. Way short. With Luck out of the way, this should open the doors to the car and hand the keys to the Texans. But can they drive the car?
Watch out for the rest of the division
The Jags finally have a capable quarterback. The Titans are in year two of the Vrabel era. The Colts still have a ton of talent. If the Texans don't win the division this year, it won't surprise me. If they miss the playoffs, that will throw me off. Two wins a year was gifted to them if they take advantage. T.Y. Hilton can't kill them because Jacoby Brissett can't get him the ball like Luck did. The Jags are still a team that went 5-11 last season. The Titans still have Marcus Mariota under center and they're not sure if he's their franchise quarterback. The division just became that much more winnable.
O'Brien's ego
Another obstacle in taking advantage of Luck's departure is O'Brien's ego. When I spoke on this a few weeks ago, it seemed to resonate with a lot of you. You guys seem to feel the same way I do. His ego is bigger than the Toyota Center, NRG, and The Juice Box put together. If O'Brien can't contain himself and learn to not be this franchise's worst enemy, this team will be able to fulfill its potential. If O'Brien continues with status quo, well, you already read about the history of mediocrity earlier.
Overconfidence
Teams with as many deficiencies as this Texans squad should never feel overconfident. But when your biggest rival loses its franchise quarterback, it can inflate your sense of self-worth. Teams can often feel as if they were anointed and preordained to their destiny as division champs. This can lead to taking things for granted, taking opponents lightly, and losing focus. If they take those keys, get that car, start to drive, and get distracted, they'll eventually crash and burn. Being arrogant without putting in the work everyday, taking things serious, and focusing in on the task at hand will cause them to fall hard.
Pressure
I was told long ago that pressure can bust pipes or make diamonds. The end result is up to you. The Texans have a golden opportunity to make some beautiful diamonds, but they can't succumb to the pressure. Giving in to the pressure and busting like one of those pipes could prove to be a fatal blow. O'Brien and several others would be held responsible and fired or released. A total rehaul of the coaching and front office staff would be necessary in my opinion. Considering there's no general manager, that new hire would be charged with bringing this team to prominence. With the amount of talent already here, and the cap space, he wouldn't have much grace in doing so. The pressure is enormous, but it shouldn't be crippling. It should fuel the fire.
I'm always fair and objective in my assessments. I even posted a pic of how I feel Texans fans are feeling upon hearing the news. I truly hope this is the stroke of luck the fanbase needs (#DadJoke). These fans have been so hungry for football, and a winner, that there are roughly 32,000 people on the waiting list for season tickets! Another good friend of mine put his name on the list in 2011 and just got a call to purchase them a few weeks ago! This city, more specifically this fanbase, deserves a consistent winner for the way they support this team. But if the powers that be don't take advantage of the opportunity given to them, I'd hate to see the backlash. Luck equals opportunity plus preparation. Let's hope the Texans are prepared for this opportunity and get lucky.
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Counting up "should win" and "should lose" results is routinely a fool's errand. That said, the Astros enter a stretch which features a bunch of "should win" games. On one hand, beginning this weekend at Daikin Park, the Astros run a gauntlet of 10 games in 10 days, then after an off day, they play another 13 days in a row. On the other hand, over the first 17 games of the 23 in 24 days, the Astros play 14 of them against losing teams: seven vs. the American League East cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles, three vs. the utter joke Colorado Rockies, and four vs. the not awful but below .500 Los Angeles Angels. Additionally, the Astros get 10 of those 14 games at home.
The only good team they face until after Labor Day is Detroit, with three games at the Tigers next week. That series looms large. If the Astros are successful in fending off Seattle and yet again winning the American League West, they have a real shot of finishing even with or ahead of Toronto and Detroit. Finishing with the best record in the AL is the ideal, but having the second -best record among the division winners means a bye past the high peril best-of-three first round series. The Astros' 2024 postseason was over in an eyeblink because they had the third-best record of the AL division champs, and then had the Tigers dismiss them in two games.
If the Astros can take two of three in Motown next week, they not only gain ground on the Tigers, but clinch the season series (Astros beat the Tigers two of three in Houston back in April) and with it the tiebreaker should that come into play for playoff seeding. The Astros swept the Blue Jays three straight earlier this year, so winning just one of three games in Canada next month would secure that tiebreaker.
Growing pains
Big picture, it's been a fine rookie season for Cam Smith. Nothing special, but plenty acceptable for a guy with just 32 games of minor league experience before earning/being handed the primary right field job coming out of spring training. Smith's tools and athleticism are clear, so are a couple of holes in his game that need patching if he is to develop into a star. The standards are different for a rookie making the minimum MLB salary of 760-thousand dollars versus a big ticket free agent signing making 20 million dollars, but a higher percentage of Smith's official at bats have ended with strikeouts this season than have Christian Walker's.
Along with improving his rate of contact, Smith needs to tweak his swing path to hit the ball in the air more. With his strength Cam can hit it hard. But hard grounders aren't the objective. Cam has a pair of two-home run games this season. In late June he homered in back-to-back games. In the other 100 games Smith has played, he has just one other homer. One in 100 games. His last dinger was June 28. 138 at bats later he's still sitting on seven for the season. Mauricio Dubon and Taylor Trammell have higher slugging percentages, as did Zack Short in his limited time with the team.
Smith has been feeble since just before the All-Star break, posting a paltry 13 hits in his last 90 at bats for a .144 batting average. He figures to play less down the stretch, a lot less should Yordan Alvarez actually return to the lineup. If ever back, Alvarez figures to slot only as the designated hitter, reducing Jose Altuve's DH opportunities. When Altuve plays left field, Jesus Sanchez is the clear better option to play right against righthanded pitching.
Jose Altuve at his best
Credit to manager Joe Espada for realizing that Altuve at 35 years old needed his load lightened. Should have happened last year, but live and learn. Altuve has been the DH 35 times this season (just five times last year). It is highly likely not a coincidence that after a hot start last year, Altuve was mediocre the last three-quarters of 2024 with a .740 OPS over his final 119 games. This season Altuve started atrociously. He was a straight up lousy player into late-May, waking May 22 with his batting average .238 and his OPS a woeful .629 over 47 games played. In 70 games since: .316/.947. In his 2017 AL Most Valuable Player season Altuve finished with a .957 OPS.
Astros HOF weekend
The Astros retire Hall of Famer Billy Wagner's number 13 Saturday. 12 players wore 13 after Wagner's time in Houston ended. They do not exactly comprise a Who's Who of Astros lore. Tyler White may have been the best of the dozen. Hey, I said the pickings were slim! Cooper Hummel goes down as the last to wear 13 as an Astro in an official game. Hummel wore 13 last season, before being assigned number 16 when he rejoined the team this season.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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