Breaking down the rest of the 2019 regular season
Astros second half preview
Jul 8, 2019, 6:55 am
Breaking down the rest of the 2019 regular season
With the win on Sunday against the Angels, the Astros put an end to the part of the season commonly known as the "first half," although it's technically well past the halfway point in the season based on games. While the season so far has had its ups and downs, they remain a top contender in the league and the best in their division.
So while the team as a whole will get three days off while a few guys head to Cleveland for a few festivities over the next couple of days, it's a good time to look ahead and see what is in store for the Astros down the stretch in the hunt for October.
A few Astros will get to enjoy some well-deserved national attention on Monday and Tuesday night for the Home Run Derby and All-Star game. Monday night will be the 2019 Home Run Derby, and representing Houston will be Alex Bregman.
Bregman participated in the 2018 derby but made an early exit after losing 16-15 in round one to Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps this year with some experience under his belt Bregman can go deeper into the bracket. His first-round matchup will be Joc Pederson, who made it to the final round in 2015 before coming up just short of the crown.
If Bregman advances to the second round, he'll face the winner of Matt Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a spot in the final round on the line. In the final round, Bregman would meet the best of Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, and Ronald Acuna Jr who comprise the other side of the bracket.
Then, on Tuesday night Bregman will join George Springer and Michael Brantley as starters in the field for the 2019 MLB All-Star game. Also on the roster are Houston's star pitchers Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Ryan Pressly. Stay tuned to SportsMap where we will give a recap of both the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game with a focus on Houston's players.
Once the games matter again later this week, Houston will have one goal in mind: making the playoffs. The best way to do that is to win your division, something the Astros have done the last two seasons.
Houston has only played 33 of their 76 division games so far in 2019. That means that 43 of the last 72 games will be against division opponents. One of the good trends of the first part of this season has been the Astros doing well against the AL West, going 26-7 in the first 33 games.
They will resume the regular season this Thursday in Arlington with a 7.5 game lead over Oakland who sits in second place and nine games ahead of the Rangers in third. While that gives them some cushion to work with, Houston will have to take care of business to make sure that a team that generates a significant surge at the end of the season, as the A's did in 2018, won't take them by surprise.
The other trend in Houston's favor regarding their division, they were 12-1 in games at home against the AL West. They will have a lot of chances to take advantage of that through September; Houston will play 25 of the 43 division games at Minute Maid Park.
One way to virtually ensure you win your division is to post a 100-win record. Houston had 101 wins in their 2017 championship season, then bested that with 103 in 2018 when they would fall in the ALCS to the 108-win Red Sox.
The Astros, currently at 57-33, are on pace to win 103 games yet again. Can they beat their 2018 win total and post a new franchise-best regular season? Nine of the final twenty-three series that Houston has on the schedule are against teams that are currently above .500 on the year.
Within those nine, many of those are against the Rangers and A's at home, so when you pair that with the matchups against weaker teams, it's plausible that the Astros could go on several long winning streaks and finish the season better than 103-59.
While the Astros are still not completely healthy going into the All-Star break, they are getting close. The biggest names that should be returning to the lineup soon are Brad Peacock, Aledmys Diaz, and most notably, Carlos Correa.
Correa's return is expected shortly after the regular season resumes, which should provide a noticeable improvement on both sides of the ball. Having Correa's defense at shortstop will allow the infield to return to normal with Alex Bregman at third, Jose Altuve at second, and Yuli Gurriel at first base. His return alone will bring some stability back on the defense that, while it hasn't been horrible, has had some miscues with players covering some unfamiliar ground.
Similarly, having Aledmys Diaz back in his utility role will allow some of the players who have had to go extended periods without a break to have some rest days when needed to ensure that everyone is staying healthy. Peacock returning to the pitching core will help shore up a rotation that is currently struggling past the top three arms.
Having these three back and keeping the rest of the team intact the rest of the year will be crucial to a momentous finish and successful playoff push.
The path to the July 31st trade deadline should be an interesting one for Houston. One side of the argument is that they do not need to take any drastic measures to improve an already successful team. On the other hand, some prominent weak spots could be firmed up to help in the playoffs.
Right now, one of those weaker spots is in the rotation. With Brad Peacock on the IL and Collin McHugh in the bullpen again, the Astros only have three solid starters: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. While Peacock will likely return to the rotation when he returns, he's also done well out of the bullpen in recent years. McHugh is looking sharp as a reliever too, as he did in previous seasons.
Several arms have been connected to Houston in possible trades before the deadline such as Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, and Matthew Boyd. It will all come down to how much the trading team asks for since the Astros have repeatedly been unwilling to move any of their highest prospects like Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley.
Additionally, while the Astros may need a strong starting arm in 2019, that may not be the case in 2020 when they get Lance McCullers Jr. back, and have Whitley in waiting to take his place on the team as well. Still, Jeff Lunhow has made several terrific moves for his team in recent years; look no further than the acquisitions of their current duo of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
All in all, the Astros are in great shape to continue their winning ways in the remaining games of the 2019 season so that they can be in a position to try and win the second World Series in franchise history. As always, we'll have our daily Astros report to give you recaps of every game Houston plays the rest of the year.
Now that spring training is officially underway, we're able to make some observations about how the Astros 2025 roster is taking shape.
Houston's starting rotation is basically set, but we got to see Hayden Wesneski make his first start in an Astro uniform. Wesneski pitched two innings against the Mets on Tuesday, allowing one run with three strikeouts.
He's working on a curveball that's a new pitch for his repertoire, and he saw some success with it. Hopefully, adding this pitch will help keep batters off balance (especially left-handed hitters) and help elevate his game. Which is nothing new for the Astros, who have a history of helping pitchers get to the next level.
Forrest Whitley also looked good, pitching a clean inning and finishing off his final hitter with a 97 mph fastball. Whitley finally realizing his potential in the big leagues could be a huge deal for the Astros, as they're looking to lighten the workload for Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader this season.
Hader in particular could benefit from this adjustment, as he was much worse when pitching in non-save situations last season. An easy fix with Hader could be trying to limit his workload to mostly save situations. That way, you get the most out of him and achieve the goal of him pitching less innings this year.
The Houston Chronicle's Matt Kawahara wrote about Hader's struggles pitching when games were tied or Houston was trailing.
“Hader converted 34 of 38 save chances but faced more batters in non-save situations (142) than in save situations (136), a sharp pivot from his previous few seasons. Opponents slugged .271 against him in save situations and .411 in non-save situations, while his ERA was more than two runs higher (4.98) in the latter.”
And while it's easy to say “suck it up, you're getting paid a fortune to pitch,” if he's not having success in those situations, and you're looking to back off his workload, this seems like an obvious way to pivot. He's under contract for another four seasons, so the Astros are right to want to be careful with him.
Astros plate discipline
Manager Joe Espada has made it very clear that he would like his offense to see more pitches this season. And we're seeing a stark difference in the approaches from the newly acquired players (Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker) and Houston's returning hitters.
Keep in mind, Paredes was first in pitches per plate appearance last season, and Walker was 10th.
So it shouldn't come as a surprise that Paredes and Walker both worked a full count in their first at-bats on Tuesday, while Mauricio Dubon, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick swung at every pitch in their first at-bats.
Hopefully the new blood in the clubhouse will rub off on the rest of the Astros lineup, which is full of free swingers, especially with Alex Bregman now playing for Boston.
Which is why we're so excited about Cam Smith's early results. While we're super pumped about his two home runs on Tuesday, we're equally impressed that he walked in his first two at-bats this spring. If anyone would naturally be jumping out of their shoes to make a strong first impression, you would think it's the guy that was traded for Kyle Tucker. But Smith was patient, and he was rewarded for it.
What is Dana Brown saying privately?
Just last offseason, Brown was talking about extending Tucker and Bregman while also signing Hader to a shocking 5-year, $95 million deal. Plus, the team signed Jose Altuve to a whopping $150 million extension. Fast-forward one year and Tucker has been traded, Bregman left in free agency, and Ryan Pressly was dealt in a salary dump. Safe to say, his vision for the ball club has changed drastically in one season. Welcome to baseball economics under Jim Crane!
We're just scratching the surface on everything covered in the video above. Be sure to hit play to watch the full conversation!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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