LET'S MAKE A DEAL
With Benintendi off the market, here are 3 trade targets in Astros sights
Jul 28, 2022, 1:10 pm
This Astros have until August 2 to make a move. Composite image by Brandon Strange
JJ - Luis Castillo
With Major League Baseball’s trade deadline less than a week away, the Astros once again find themselves in playoff contention and will look to add pivotal pieces to make another World Series run.
On paper it seems as though Houston already has a complete team, but there is always room for improvement.
Sure, the Astros could add a few bullpen pieces and call it a day, similar to last season, but this year feels different. Houston has a winning record against arguably the two best teams in the league (4-0 against the Mets and 5-2 against the Yankees) and owns the second-best record in baseball.
Needless to say, this season is a World Series or bust year so it would behoove the club to make a blockbuster type trade to ensure their continued dominance over the rest of Major League Baseball.
The Astros have already been attached to a couple of big name players and look to be aggressive before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Josh Bell
One trade candidate that makes sense for the Astros is Washington Nationals’ first baseman Josh Bell.
Sure Houston already has last year's batting champion at first base, but Yuli Guriel is having a down year by his standards. The 38-year-old is hitting a career low (excluding the 2020 partial season) .234/.286/.383. He has improved over the last month, but isn’t nearly as effective at the plate as he was in previous seasons.
Bell on the other hand is hitting .304/.388/.494 on a last place Nationals team and could be a potential upgrade compared to Gurriel.
The 29-year-old might just be a rental player as he is a free agent at the end of this season, so it shouldn’t cost the Astros too much in prospects for a trade to occur.
The former All-Star wouldn't outright replace, Gurriel, but could be used in a platoon role at first base.
Another way to look at Bell coming to Houston would be he could split time at first base and be a designated hitter to alleviate stress for both Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez.
Bell’s bat would be a welcome addition to the Astros lineup, and surely Dusty Baker could find a way for both Gurriel and Bell to split time at first base.
Willson Contreras
One player who has been on the mind of every Astros front office executive for a while now is Chicago Cubs’ catcher Willson Contreras.
Similar to the aforementioned Gurriel dilemma, Houston already has an everyday starting catcher in Martin Maldonado that everyone in the clubhouse seems to like.
The issue with the 35-year-old is an obvious one, he is not a good hitter and neither are the Astros' other catchers.
Maldonado’s .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season.
The Astros have also been without Jason Castro for almost a month now, with no update on the severity of his knee injury.
Houston’s current backup catcher Korey Lee has shown flashes of success at the plate, but is still developing and may need more time before he is ready to become the club's everyday starting catcher.
Contreras on the other hand has always been an offense-first catcher, something the Astros have not had since the days of Evan Gattis and Brian McCann.
Assuming the Astros were to deal for the 3x All-Star, he could slot into a backup catcher/ designated hitter role. That way the pitchers could still work with Maldonado and the team can use Contreras off the bench in late game pitch hit situations or to give Maldy the day off occasionally.
Similarly to the Josh Bell scenario, trading for the 2022 All-Star starting catcher shouldn’t cost much, as he can walk at the end of the season via free agency. That’s not to say the Cubs won’t ask a lot for one of the last remaining core players from their 2016 World Series championship team, though.
The Astros might have to give up some better prospects for Contreras’ services, but it would be worth it to insure their catching position is in good hands.
Luis Castillo
One of the best elements of this Astros team has been their starting pitching. Justin Verlander is having another Cy Young caliber season coming off Tommy John sugary and Framber Valdez made his first All-Star team this year. Other pitchers such as Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier are having good seasons as well.
With Jake Odorizzi as the sixth man in this rotation and Lance McCullers Jr currently undergoing a rehab assignment, it’s safe to say the Astros don’t need anymore starting pitching, right?
Yes, but Houston could make an exception for another potential ace in their rotation.
Cincinnati Reds’ pitcher Luis Castillo has a 2.77 ERA and 82 strikeouts this season despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.
The 29-year-old could fit right in to this rotation, and the Astros could move someone such as Odorizzi or Garcia and prospects to make room for the Reds' ace.
Castillo has one more year of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency in 2024, so the extra year of control may be enticing for Astros if they were to trade for him.
Although not a necessity, having another 2022 All-Star on this already loaded pitching staff would further solidify the Astros’ rotation as the best in baseball.
Houston may have one of the best teams as it currently stands, but adding a player like Bell, Contreras or Castillo could be just what the Astros need to make it back and potentially win the World Series.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.