GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: Hoping to continue an epic win streak with Europa League Final, NBA and NHL playoffs

Bookie Busters: Hoping to continue an epic win streak with Europa League Final, NBA and NHL playoffs
The Rockets are in must-win mode. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

An epic run, some would say, as Bookie Busters stayed hot by going undefeated at 8-0-1. We are now on a 37-12 run over the last five weeks. 75.5%. Remember to Practice Bankroll management, that is the key! Let's keep streaking....

8-0-1 SWEEP

Celtics +1   WIN

Soccer

Dynamo vs. Whitecaps

Over 2.5  WIN

RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin

Over 3 WIN

Levante vs. Barcelona

Over 3.5 WIN

Both Teams to score WIN

Liverpool first Half  WIN

Arsenal -1 PUSH

Tottenham Over 3.5  WIN

Colorado Rapids vs. New York Red Bulls

Over 2.5  WIN

Europa League Final

Atletico Madrid vs. Marseille

Marseille come into this match off a disappointing 3-3 draw vs. Guingamp this weekend. The squad leans heavily on the skills of French international Dimitri Payet who has seven assists and three goals in this tournament. Also having a breakthrough season is winger Florian Thauvin, who has netted 21 goals in Ligue 1.  The French side will need every bit of their contributions after being held scoreless in five matches in this competition, something that doesn't bode well facing one of Europe's elite defenses. Atletico Madrid has allowed only 20 goals in the last 37 matches; credit to goalkeeper Jan Oblak who is making a case for one of the worlds best keepers after keeping 26 clean sheets this season. Attempting to recreate the magic of 2010 and 2012, Diego Simeone's team enter this match as 3-1 favorites to claim the Europa title.

The Pick

The French side hasn't had much luck in EL finals, tasting defeat the last two times they made it to a final,  losing to Parma in 1999 and Valencia in 2004. I expect Los Rojiblancos to play a conservative gameplan limiting what Marseille will be able to do on the offensive side of the field. Look for a marginal victory here from a team that is battle tested in big games and their experience, will conclusively lead them to a narrow victory.

Atletico -118

Atletico to nil

Antoine Griezmann to score

Match Result and Both Teams to Score

Madrid and No   +150

Predicted lineups

Marseille starting XI: Mandanda; Sarr, Rami, Luiz Gustavo, Amavi; Sanson, Lopez; Thauvin, Payet, Ocampos; Germain

Atletico Madrid starting XI: Oblak; Vrsaljko, Savic, Godin, Lucas; Koke, Saul Niguez, Gabi, Correa; Griezmann, Costa

Other sports

Rockets vs. Warriors Game 2

Rockets -1

Not much to this play, Houston in a must-win situation after losing home court. I believe MDA makes the right adjustments on defense and gets his offense going earlier in the shot clock.

Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights - Game 3

Vegas-140 Moneyline

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers -  Game 3

Over 205

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoknowz on Twitter


 

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Can the Astros overcome the loss of Bregman? Composite Getty Image.

So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.

Reminders...

Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.

It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.

For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.

Who's on third?

Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.

There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.

Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!

New beginnings

Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!

Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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