GAMBLING GUIDE
Bookie Busters: Looking to extend an epic 14-0 win streak
May 18, 2018, 6:56 am
An Epic run was what we were hoping to sustain, magic is what we've created.
14 straight wins. A 43-12 Run (78%)
Our latest edition of Bookie Busters was able to clear the board, let's see how we did;
6-0
Atletico -118 WIN
Atletico to nil +138 WIN
Antoine Griezmann to score WIN
Match Result and Both Teams to Score
Madrid and No +150 WIN
Rockets vs. Warriors Game 2
Rockets -1 WIN
Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights - Game 3
Vegas-140 Moneyline WIN
"Little Joe never once gave it away
Everybody had to pay and pay
A hustle here and a hustle there
New York City is the place where they said:
Hey babe, take a walk on the wild side
I said hey Joe, take a walk on the wild side."
Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad
What's at stake? Not much from a competitive standpoint with Barcelona holding a 12 point lead in La Liga. Another blow to the match will be the fact that Barcelona no longer are chasing the undefeated record for the season after falling to Levante 5-4. How much will this team put forward in the last match of the season?
The Pick
The Venue; Camp Nou, and in front of 99,354 enthusiasts, the atmosphere will be filled with festivities. With nothing to lose from this match, I expect the home side to put on a show in front of their fans. With the World Cup in sight, I don't think many players will be taking chances on tackles and play somewhat loosely on the defensive side. Bank on Barca to keep this match open, in an event that is being treated as a trophy ceremony from the start.
Match result and both teams to Score
Barca / yes
Half Time / Full Time
Barca/ Barca
Luis Suarez to score a goal
Rockets vs. Warriors Game 3
Houston's performance in Game 2 leaves this series somewhat in question, or at least that’s what the Red Rowdies are hoping for.
In the Rocket's two regular season wins vs. the Warriors, pace played key, and Houston played at a pace of 103.99. Game 2, many experts are saying that the Rockets stuck to their guns and ran the ISO offense that led them to 65 wins.
While I do I agree, it was the pace that they played at, and playing late in shot clocks that led to their downfall in the series opener. Game 2 saw them get into their offense earlier into the shot clock and saw them push the pace to 102.88. The final stats are comparable to those of Game 1 as far as the efficiency in ISO situations, but it was the ambition to attack the defense aggressively and beat their man early, conclusively leading to the extra pass and an open shot. They still played Isolation ball, only they chose to run it to the chest of the Golden State defenders keeping them on the backfoot and having to switch over to help. The extra pass served to be lethal and Houston's role players shined.
The Pick
The Rockets tasted what slowing the game down too much can do when you're not ultra efficient that game on offense. When playing a team like the Warriors, you have to be cohesive on the defensive side and close out the shooters. Game 2 the quicker gameplan worked as planned and the results were fantastic for Houston, I just don't know if they can share the same success in Golden State Sunday. At home, the Warriors are averaging 114.2 points this postseason, while the Rockets allowed 113.2 points in their losses this regular season. Add in the pace the Rockets found success in and the Warriors Team Total all of a sudden has value.
Warriors Team Total Over 116
Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern First Half
Bayern Team Total Over 2.5
Cavaliers vs Celtics Game 3
Over 205
Not too much more I like from a betting perspective, don’t force plays!
I’ll be participating in a 100k guarantee poker tournament this weekend. I’ll have an article about MTT tournaments and how to approach them. Also, some hand breakdowns from the tournament.
For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.
All-Star balloting opened up this week for what used to be known as the Midsummer Classic in Major League Baseball. I guess some still refer to it as such but the All-Star Game has been largely a bore for many years, though the honor of being selected on merit remains a big one. As always, fans can vote at all positions except pitcher. The fan balloting has resulted in mostly good selections for years now, though pretty much all teams still do silly marketing stuff trying to drum up support for their players. The Astros’ part in that silliness is their campaign to make it the “All-’Stros” game on the American League squad in Atlanta next month. It’s one thing to be supportive of your team, it’s another to be flat out ridiculous if voting right now for Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon, or Cam Smith. The Astros tried to game the system in submitting Jose Altuve as a second baseman where the competition is weaker than it is in the outfield, but given Altuve has played only about 25 percent of the games at second base this season he should not be an All-Star second baseman selectee for what would be the tenth time in his career.
Isaac Paredes’s recent freefall notwithstanding, he has a legitimate case as a backup third baseman, especially with Alex Bregman likely missing more than a month of games due to his quad injury. Jake Meyers is having a fine season but is obviously not an All-Star-worthy outfielder unless he is sensational for the rest of June. That leaves Jeremy Peña, who is simply the best shortstop in the big leagues so far this season. To be clear, no team in baseball (including the Astros) would rather have Peña going forward than the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr., but we’re talking about the here and now. There are another 100 games to be played, but Peña not only is about a lock to deserve his first All-Star nod, but he is in contention to put in the books the greatest season ever by an Astro shortstop.
Over his first three seasons, Peña was a consistently mediocre offensive player. His highest batting average was .266, best on-base percentage .324, top slugging percentage .426. He is blowing away all those numbers thus far in 2025. While unlikely to come close to reaching his preseason goal of 50 stolen bases, Peña is swiping bags at the best success rate of his career. Add in Peña’s stellar defense and that he has played in every Astros’ game so far this season, and Peña has been irrefutably one of the 10 best and most valuable players in the American League. You could certainly argue as high as top three.
If Peña's productivity holds up for the rest of the season there are only three other seasons posted by Astro shortstops that are in the same league as what would be Peña’s 2025. Carlos Correa has two of them. Lack of durability may be the biggest reason Correa is not tracking to be a Hall of Famer. In only two seasons as an Astro did Correa play in more than 136 games. He was fabulous in each of them. 2021 was his peak campaign, playing in 148 games while compiling an .850 OPS, winning a Gold Glove, and finishing fifth in AL MVP voting. Correa’s Baseball-Reference wins above replacement number for 2021 was 7.3. Peña is at 3.6 with nearly 20 games still left before the midway point of the schedule.
For the other great Astro shortstop season you have to go back to 1983. Dickie Thon turned 25 years old in June of ‘83. He put up a .798 OPS, which gains in stature given Thon played his home games in the Astrodome when the Dome was at its most pitching-friendly. Thon won the Silver Slugger Award as the best offensive shortstop in the National League, and played superior defense. His Baseball-Reference WAR number was 7.4. He finished seventh for NL MVP playing for an 85-77 Astros’ squad that finished third in the NL West. Dickie Thon looked like an emerging superstar. Then, in the fifth game of the 1984 season, a fastball from Mets’ pitcher Mike Torrez hit Thon in the left eye, fracturing his orbital bone. Thon missed the rest of the ‘84 season. While Thon played in nine more big league seasons, his vision never fully recovered and he was never the same player. It’s one of the biggest “What if...” questions in Astros’ history.
Arms race
Players and the Commissioner’s Office pick the All-Star pitching staffs. Unless he suddenly starts getting lit up regularly, Hunter Brown can pack a bag for Georgia. Framber Valdez wouldn’t make it now but has surged into contention. Josh Hader’s first half is going vastly better than last year’s, so he is in line for a reliever spot.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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