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Bookie Busters: NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs and soccer plays

Bookie Busters: NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs and soccer plays
Brad Stevens and the Celtics should get it done tonight. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

The results

Last week: 7-5-1 overall

Soccer 7-2-1

NBA 0-3

Last 3 weeks: 24-10-3  (70.5%)

Barcelona money line (DNB) 3x PUSH

Game Total Over 3.5 WIN

Match Result and Both Teams to Score: Barca and Yes   +185 LOSS

Will a goal be scored in both halves? YES WIN

Messi scores a goal 2x  WIN 2X

Both teams to score in 2nd half   +130 WIN

Barca and 2.5   LOSS

Last week's plays of the week

Germany

RB Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg

Over 2.5   -144 WIN

Over 3 +112    WIN

Mainz 05 vs. Dortmund

Over 3   PUSH

NBA Playoffs     

Pelicans vs. Warriors

Warriors over 30 1st quarter LOSS

Warriors Team total  1st half over 60 LOSS

Over 119.5 First Half LOSS

What to play next 

NBA playoffs

Celtics vs. 76ers

Wednesday brings us a pivotal Game 5 match-up where the visitors will try to keep their season alive. Winning at the TD Garden will be a tall task as Boston is undefeated at home this postseason. The Celtics won 70 percent of their regular season home games, cementing a 33-14 home record while covering the spread 62.2 percent of the time. In Game 5, Boston is currently favored by 1 point and was 18-17-2 ATS at home during the regular season when favored.

The Pick

The Celtics have shown all series long their ability to limit what Philadelphia wants to do. Boston's Head coach Brad Stevens has thrived on dead-ball situations and his ability to out-coach Brett Brown in late game situations. If the 76ers can steal Game 5, the pressure will weigh heavily on the Celtics for the remaining two games of the series. History is on the home teams side, as teams that are down 0-3 in a series are 0-129 all-time to advance. Boston has excelled this year off one-day rest and led the league going 38-19-2 ATS (66.7 percent). Give me the home team, in what Coach Stevens will label as a must-win situation for his squad.

Celtics -1

Soccer

EPL

Chelsea vs. Huddersfield

Huddersfield is fighting off regulation and did so beautifully securing a draw vs. Manchester City over the weekend. The visitors have now picked up 4 points out of the last five matches and will look to continue their success Wednesday at Stamford Bridge. The difference  in this match will be the motivation of their opponent as Chelsea is fighting to stay in the top 4 and need to win out to better their chances at a Champions League spot.

The Pick

Huddersfield will be looking to park the bus in hopes of securing at the minimum, a draw. Chelsea Manager Antonio Conte will have his team prepared and will be looking to get on the scoresheet as quickly as possible. I don't see the visitors holding off The Blues the entire match, and once they find the back of the net, they will repeat it with ease as the match opens up.

Chelsea -1.5     -155

Leicester vs. Arsenal

Over 3

Spain

Barcelona vs. Villarreal

Over 3.5

Barcelona Team Total over 2.5

Sevilla  vs. Real Madrid

Sevilla Pk

Real Madrid fatigue factor and Ronaldo, Bale, and Carvajal out.

NHL

Predators vs Jets Game 7

Predators Moneyline

2018 World Cup Deep Dive Preview and Picks coming soon!!

Any Questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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