GAMBLING GUIDE
Bookie Busters: NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs and soccer plays
May 9, 2018, 6:19 am
Brad Stevens and the Celtics should get it done tonight. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
The results
Last week: 7-5-1 overall
Soccer 7-2-1
NBA 0-3
Last 3 weeks: 24-10-3 (70.5%)
Barcelona money line (DNB) 3x PUSH
Game Total Over 3.5 WIN
Match Result and Both Teams to Score: Barca and Yes +185 LOSS
Will a goal be scored in both halves? YES WIN
Messi scores a goal 2x WIN 2X
Both teams to score in 2nd half +130 WIN
Barca and 2.5 LOSS
Last week's plays of the week
Germany
RB Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg
Over 2.5 -144 WIN
Over 3 +112 WIN
Mainz 05 vs. Dortmund
Over 3 PUSH
NBA Playoffs
Pelicans vs. Warriors
Warriors over 30 1st quarter LOSS
Warriors Team total 1st half over 60 LOSS
Over 119.5 First Half LOSS
What to play next
NBA playoffs
Celtics vs. 76ers
Wednesday brings us a pivotal Game 5 match-up where the visitors will try to keep their season alive. Winning at the TD Garden will be a tall task as Boston is undefeated at home this postseason. The Celtics won 70 percent of their regular season home games, cementing a 33-14 home record while covering the spread 62.2 percent of the time. In Game 5, Boston is currently favored by 1 point and was 18-17-2 ATS at home during the regular season when favored.
The Pick
The Celtics have shown all series long their ability to limit what Philadelphia wants to do. Boston's Head coach Brad Stevens has thrived on dead-ball situations and his ability to out-coach Brett Brown in late game situations. If the 76ers can steal Game 5, the pressure will weigh heavily on the Celtics for the remaining two games of the series. History is on the home teams side, as teams that are down 0-3 in a series are 0-129 all-time to advance. Boston has excelled this year off one-day rest and led the league going 38-19-2 ATS (66.7 percent). Give me the home team, in what Coach Stevens will label as a must-win situation for his squad.
Celtics -1
Soccer
EPL
Chelsea vs. Huddersfield
Huddersfield is fighting off regulation and did so beautifully securing a draw vs. Manchester City over the weekend. The visitors have now picked up 4 points out of the last five matches and will look to continue their success Wednesday at Stamford Bridge. The difference in this match will be the motivation of their opponent as Chelsea is fighting to stay in the top 4 and need to win out to better their chances at a Champions League spot.
The Pick
Huddersfield will be looking to park the bus in hopes of securing at the minimum, a draw. Chelsea Manager Antonio Conte will have his team prepared and will be looking to get on the scoresheet as quickly as possible. I don't see the visitors holding off The Blues the entire match, and once they find the back of the net, they will repeat it with ease as the match opens up.
Chelsea -1.5 -155
Leicester vs. Arsenal
Over 3
Spain
Barcelona vs. Villarreal
Over 3.5
Barcelona Team Total over 2.5
Sevilla vs. Real Madrid
Sevilla Pk
Real Madrid fatigue factor and Ronaldo, Bale, and Carvajal out.
NHL
Predators vs Jets Game 7
Predators Moneyline
2018 World Cup Deep Dive Preview and Picks coming soon!!
Any Questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.
It’s been an excellent weeklong stretch of games for the Astros tempered by the news of yet another season-ending injury to a starting pitcher. To get the bad news out of the way, it comes as no surprise that Ronel Blanco needs Tommy John surgery and is done until at least the middle of next season. While Blanco had not been nearly as good through nine 2025 starts as he was last season, he was still taking his regular return and on average getting into the sixth inning. Blanco turns 32 years old at the end of August. He’s not even salary arbitration-eligible until 2027. That last fact may be good news for him. The Astros will likely keep Blanco next year in hopes he can contribute in the second half of the season, since they will pay him barely the Major League minimum salary ($780,000 next year) That’s in contrast to Jose Urquidy, who in the midst of his salary arbitration years would have cost about three and a half million dollars to keep, so the Astros non-tendered him.
With Blanco joining Hayden Wesneski in the “See you next year! Hopefully.” club, it struck me as interesting that the Astros let Lance McCullers throw 102 pitches in his Wednesday outing vs. the Athletics. That’s eleven more than he had thrown in any of his prior four starts. McCullers holding up physically would be a huge boost, but the new essentials in the Astros’ rotation are Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. Framber has settled in to the tune of a 1.93 earned run average over his last four starts. Brown’s season ERA is 2.00. Brown has had five days of rest before all eleven of his starts this season. This Sunday is Brown’s presently next scheduled outing. He would work on four days of rest if on the mound Sunday against the Rays.
Taking the last two games from the Mariners was huge (for the second half of May anyway). Keeping the good times rolling by sweeping the two-game miniseries from the A’s was less significant but still nice. Maybe not quite nice enough to have Frank “The Tank” from the movie Old School belting out “We’re going streaking!!!” but it did give the Astros their first four game winning streak of the season. They still have not lost more than three straight.
On a heater!
Speaking of streaking, time for annual mention of one of my all-time favorite baseball factoids. The 1916 New York Giants hold the MLB record for the longest win streak with an incredible 26 in a row. Earlier in the season the Giants ripped off 17 in a row. Combine the two streaks and that’s 43-0! The 1916 New York Giants finished in fourth place. In all their other games the Giants went 43-66. The American League’s longest ever winning streak is of fairly recent vintage. The 2007 Cleveland Indians won 22 straight. There have been only two other winning streaks since 1900 of at least 20 games. The 1935 Chicago Cubs won 21 straight. The Art Howe-managed 2002 Oakland A’s won 20 in a row, and were the inspiration for the movie Moneyball. The Astros have three 12 game winning streaks as the longest in their history.
Expect the unexpected
Tuesday’s win over the A’s brought the Astros to the one-third completed point of the regular season. Isaac Paredes was definitely their best offensive player to that milepost. His “on pace for” numbers were the best on the ballclub 33 home runs and 93 runs batted in. Paredes also led in runs scored with 29. The last Astro to lead the team in all three of those categories was Alex Bregman who did it in both 2018 and 2019. That Bregman was clearly a better player than this Paredes, but Isaac healthy and making “only” 6.625 million dollars this season is a heck of a lot better value than Bregman at 40 mil for the Red Sox, especially given that while Bregman was off to a sensational start for Boston, he’s now out for at least a month with a quad injury.
Hunter Brown is on pace to win 20 games. The last Astro to get there was Gerrit Cole on the last day of the 2019 regular season. The day before that Justin Verlander won his 21st game.
The Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen was awesome last season, by far the best in the league with four relievers who each pitched in at least 74 games posting ERAs of 1.92 or lower, headlined by closer Emmanuel Clase’s microscopic 0.61. One-third of the way through this season for the Astros: Bryan Abreu sat at 1.90, Steven Okert 1.82, Josh Hader 1.57, Bryan King 1.52.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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