GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs and soccer plays

Brad Stevens and the Celtics should get it done tonight. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

The results

Last week: 7-5-1 overall

Soccer 7-2-1

NBA 0-3

Last 3 weeks: 24-10-3  (70.5%)

Barcelona money line (DNB) 3x PUSH

Game Total Over 3.5 WIN

Match Result and Both Teams to Score: Barca and Yes   +185 LOSS

Will a goal be scored in both halves? YES WIN

Messi scores a goal 2x  WIN 2X

Both teams to score in 2nd half   +130 WIN

Barca and 2.5   LOSS

Last week's plays of the week

Germany

RB Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg

Over 2.5   -144 WIN

Over 3 +112    WIN

Mainz 05 vs. Dortmund

Over 3   PUSH

NBA Playoffs     

Pelicans vs. Warriors

Warriors over 30 1st quarter LOSS

Warriors Team total  1st half over 60 LOSS

Over 119.5 First Half LOSS

What to play next 

NBA playoffs

Celtics vs. 76ers

Wednesday brings us a pivotal Game 5 match-up where the visitors will try to keep their season alive. Winning at the TD Garden will be a tall task as Boston is undefeated at home this postseason. The Celtics won 70 percent of their regular season home games, cementing a 33-14 home record while covering the spread 62.2 percent of the time. In Game 5, Boston is currently favored by 1 point and was 18-17-2 ATS at home during the regular season when favored.

The Pick

The Celtics have shown all series long their ability to limit what Philadelphia wants to do. Boston's Head coach Brad Stevens has thrived on dead-ball situations and his ability to out-coach Brett Brown in late game situations. If the 76ers can steal Game 5, the pressure will weigh heavily on the Celtics for the remaining two games of the series. History is on the home teams side, as teams that are down 0-3 in a series are 0-129 all-time to advance. Boston has excelled this year off one-day rest and led the league going 38-19-2 ATS (66.7 percent). Give me the home team, in what Coach Stevens will label as a must-win situation for his squad.

Celtics -1

Soccer

EPL

Chelsea vs. Huddersfield

Huddersfield is fighting off regulation and did so beautifully securing a draw vs. Manchester City over the weekend. The visitors have now picked up 4 points out of the last five matches and will look to continue their success Wednesday at Stamford Bridge. The difference  in this match will be the motivation of their opponent as Chelsea is fighting to stay in the top 4 and need to win out to better their chances at a Champions League spot.

The Pick

Huddersfield will be looking to park the bus in hopes of securing at the minimum, a draw. Chelsea Manager Antonio Conte will have his team prepared and will be looking to get on the scoresheet as quickly as possible. I don't see the visitors holding off The Blues the entire match, and once they find the back of the net, they will repeat it with ease as the match opens up.

Chelsea -1.5     -155

Leicester vs. Arsenal

Over 3

Spain

Barcelona vs. Villarreal

Over 3.5

Barcelona Team Total over 2.5

Sevilla  vs. Real Madrid

Sevilla Pk

Real Madrid fatigue factor and Ronaldo, Bale, and Carvajal out.

NHL

Predators vs Jets Game 7

Predators Moneyline

2018 World Cup Deep Dive Preview and Picks coming soon!!

Any Questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.

 

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A WEEKLY REVIEW OF CRENNEL'S COACHING

Now my job: Texans feast on Lions

Photo by Getty Images.

Thanksgiving is full of tradition. There's the typical family gathering, large meal, and of course, football. Sometimes, new traditions are added and old ones are retired. I think the Texans did both in their impressive 41-25 win over the Lions in Detroit. Old traditions were carried on (Lions losing on Thanksgiving), some were put to rest (Texans not being able to get turnovers), and new ones were started (multiple passing touchdowns by Deshaun Watson in six straight games).

The fact that this defense got three turnovers in the game was unbelievable! They got all three in the first quarter within the span of eight plays. JJ Watt's pick-six was insane. He went for a batted ball, ended up catching it, and ran it in. They forced Jonathan Williams to fumble on the Lions' very next play from scrimmage and recovered it. On the Lions' next possession, the Texans recovered yet another fumble after the challenge was reversed. Great call by the coaching staff to challenge and win. The defense looked good. Tyrell Adams stood out because he was in on those two fumbles, made 17 total tackles with 14 of them being solo tackles. They also brought pressure that seemed to make Matthew Stafford very inaccurate and resulted in four sacks. I give defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver credit for knowing he needs to blitz to get pressure, but the run defense has to improve.

The offense kept the tempo up in this game as well. The spread and hurry-up were used to keep the Lions already staggered defense off balance. Knowing the Lions were without a couple defensive backs, I thought it would be the perfect marriage of their defense and the Texans' offense. A buddy asked before the game about the line (Texans -3.5) and the over/under (52.5). I told him bet the Texans and the over because neither team can play defense and both have good quarterbacks. Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly put together another good game plan and Watson executed it flawlessly. One route combo I saw later on in the game I particularly enjoyed. Two receivers were tight to the left side. Cooks ran a hook/curl and settled in the middle of the zone while Fuller ran a vertical route. Duke Johnson ran a swing route to that same side. It left Cooks wide open as the attention went to Johnson in the flat, Fuller deep, and the action to the other play side. Route combos are important because it gives the quarterback different reads as he goes through his progressions and lets him pick apart the defense based on what he sees. Combine that with Watson's play and the way Kelly has changed his play calling now that he's liberated from he who shall not be named, we're seeing a beautiful thing.

As good as things were, there's still room for improvement. The defense gives up way too many easy yards, both run and pass. They can't get pressure bringing only four and will often give up big plays if the blitz is picked up. Plus the run defense is still an issue as evidenced by the Lions' first possession of the second half. The Lions ran the ball 10 plays straight for a total of 58 yards on that drive. Utterly ridiculous! Watson was good (17/25 318 yards and four touchdowns), but he missed two more touchdowns with passes slightly off, and continues to hold onto the ball too long at times. The difference between these two issues I've presented here is the fact that Watson has so played well, his "issues" are minor and very correctable, while the defense is terrible and there's no easy fix in sight. But let Romeo Crennel and Anthony Weaver tell it, they're getting the most out of these guys and they're playing disciplined.

The thought that this team may actually creep into the playoff picture may take shape better after next week if they can beat the Colts. I doubt it, but it is getting interesting. Let's see what else happens around them because they need help getting there.

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