Lebron was great in Game 2, but the Pacers have been a good bet all year. Gregory Shamus
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 3
Indiana returns home with an added dash after stealing home court in Game 1. Another boost in the belief of the Pacers will be the fact that LeBron practically had to put the team on his back in Game 2, dropping 46 points, and still, the Pacers were able to hang tough while taking the Cavs best punch. The Cavaliers outscored the Pacers by 15 in the first quarter but failed to carry the momentum into the rest of the game. Indiana was able to outscore the Cavaliers in the remaining three quarters and have now outperformed Cleveland in five of the eight quarters played in this series.
Listed as -700 favorites, I'm not convinced the Cavs are the better team overall. Indiana is now 2-0 ATS in the series, and it comes as no surprise for a team that covered the spread 58.3 percent of the time in the regular season. This season, Indiana has rewarded backers when playing at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they were 24-17 ATS. Indiana flew under the radar this year, but this has been a team that has over-exceeded expectations in every way. A revealing sign of a good team is one that knows how to learn from its losses, and the Pacers have done just that covering the line in 21 of their 34 contests following a loss (61.8 percent).
The Pick
Although Im slightly worried about LeBron going bezerk again, knowing that’s really the only way this team can contend, I lean with the team playing better at the moment. The Pacers' Victor Oladipo has been carrying the team on his back, and playing at home will add to his confidence leading the Pacers to a 2-1 series lead.
Pacers PK
Pacers Team Total over 104.5
SATURDAY
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Game 3
Saturday evening we travel to Minneapolis in a pivotal matchup for the home team. After giving the Rockets all they could handle in Game 1, the grudge match saw Houston dominate for three quarters, never leaving the spread in question down the stretch, An abysmal shooting performance by James Harden was washed away by the efforts of Chris Paul, the opposite of Game 1. When listed as an away favorite, the Rockets are 23-13 ATS (63.9 percent) winning by an average margin of 9 points per game. Both teams struggle covering the number off 2-3 days rest where the Timberwolves are 7-8 and the Rockets 8-11.
The Pick
I expect the Timberwolves to be more efficient at home and play much better at home. The only problem is in both games either Harden or Paul were off their game, and sooner or later both will be on the same wavelength. If the Wolves want to make this series competitive, this is a must win. The over in Wolves games at home was profitable during the regular season as they saw the total clear the number in 60% of those games. This might be the lone game Minnesota wins this series, and to do that they must score plenty. With the Rockets finally starting to hit shots, and Minnesota playing with he crowd behind them, look for this game to go Over.
Over 214
Saturday soccer
England
Tottenham vs. Manchester United
Both teams to score
Germany
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Over 3
France
Bordeaux vs. PSG
Over 3
Sunday
England
Swansea vs. Manchester City
over 3.5
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.