GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie busters remains an unstoppable force with another big week

Is your piggy bank getting healthier? It is if you are following Bookie Busters. Getty Images

In the gambling world, many people aim to be just above 50% to be able to beat the vig and consider themselves winners, or at least not losers over time.

What we have established here with the Bookie Buster movement is incredible. Consistency! Now, last week saw us start sluggish, but I emphasize the ups and downs of the game, that's where you will find the keys to becoming a winner. Knowing how to take losses and minimizing the hurt and keeping a level head is something that you'll learn over time.

Have fun with it, learn, experiment. It's whatever gambling environment you create; it's your world, so you dictate the plot and ending.

LAST WEEK PLAYS

Tottenham vs. West Ham
West Ham PK  +109 5U MAX
Lakers-7 -120 5U MAX -5
Lakers TT over 120.5 2U  -2.2
James over 28.5 points 3U MAX  +3
J. Cook over 4.5 Receptions  -3U
76ers TT 3rd Q over 27.5 3U MAX   +3
Saturday Money truck
Liverpool/Arsenal
Liverpool TT over 1.5 MAX  -9
Over 3  MAX -3.9
Salah scores 1U  -1.2
Germany
Dortmund/Wolfsburg
Over 2,5 5U MAX  -5
Leipzig/ Berlin
Over 2.5 5U mAX+5
France
Lyon -1   3U MAX -4.2
NFL
C.McCaffrey pass receptions over 5½ 3U MAX -4
T.Kelce pass receptions over 5½ 3U MAX  +3
Kelce TD 1U  +1
Seahawks  ML -2
Steelers+3  +3
Miami/Jets Under 42   +2
NFL Halftime   1:35 PM CST
Jets/Mia
Under 21 2nd half 1U  +1
Bills TT under seven 3U  -3
Halftime   4:40 CST

HOU/DEN 2nd half over 23.5   2U -2
UPDATED 4:42 CST
Seahawks TT over 10.5 2nd half 2U -2
NO/LA
3rd Q over 13.5   3U MAX
J.Edelman receiving yards over 75½   5U MAX- 6.3
My Bookie prop of the Night
Brady over 20 fantasy points   5U MAX -5.9
Patriots over 13.5 2nd half TT    5U MAX of the Night
Zeke Over 92.5 rush yards 3U -3.9

MAX Titans TT Under 17 5U
Champions League  1:19 CST
PSG/Napoli BTTS and over 2.5 -145 5U MAX  -5.5
ATLÉTICO MADRID VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND
1st half over one 5U MAX PUSH

Peoples Parlay 1U -1
Atl/Dortmund BTTS
Barca BTTS
Napoli BTTS

UPDATE HALFTIME  2:50 CST
Tottenham ML DNB -180 5U MAX  +5
Game over 2.5  5U mAX +5


Other live added play
Tech/OU over 81.5 Live +2
OU TT 1st half O +3
Bama/LSU under f 1st U   +3
2nd H Uner +3
OU TT over game 46 +3
Cormier by sub +2
Vikings live TT O 27.5 -1
White first TD +2.5
Pats TT 2nd H O +5
Saints Live O 41.5 +5
Man City first half +5
Raptors first Q over 30.5 +5
NO TT over 25.5 +3
Texans +2
Pats TT over 30.5 +5
Panthers TT over 30.5   +5
OKC/NO Live over  -3.7
cowboys first half 6.5 -2.2
NO/OKC 3rd Q over +2

I tried to list everything, there are many live plays with the volume I release. Also, didn't list most of the NFL I released which was at least another +20 units with the parlay. Play smaller units if your bankroll is not sufficient enough to get in all the action. Remember the volume will be there so spread that out accordingly.

Last week read +206.8 +18.5U+ = 225.3

New Plays

Champions League   11/7

Juventus ML -150 2U

 

UPDATED   1:00 PM

Hoffenheim/ Lyon

BTTS and over 2.5  -175 5U MAX

Juventus TT over 1.5   5U MAX

 

Parlay 1U

Hoff/Lyon BTTS

Juventus TT over 1.5   

Halftime UPDATE    2:50 CST

Manchester City -3  -150   5U MAX

 

TNF

B. Roethlisberger TD passes over 2 5U MAX

J.Conner pass receptions over 4½ over 1U +120

J.Smith-Schuster pass receptions over 5½ 3U MAX

 

Steelers TT over 27.5 3U MAX

Steelers TT Over 6.5 first Q   1U

 

For any questions or comments reach me  @JerryBoKnowz Twitter.

Be sure to check out my show MoneyLine with Josh Jordan on ESPN 97.5. We’re on every Sunday from 10-noon, and we’ll talk a lot of fantasy football and NFL gambling. Also, be sure to follow us @Moneyline975 on Twitter.







 

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Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.

All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.

Hard Hit % - 33.6%

Barrel % - 3.9%

K% - 14.4%

BB% - 13.3%

Chase % - 18.1%

Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.

There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.

His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.

Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.

Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.

The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.

The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.

He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.

Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.

It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.

Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.

Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.

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