GAMBLING GUIDE
Bookie busters: Some betting plays for college hoops, NBA and even soccer
Mar 23, 2018, 8:08 am
The NCAA Tournament has some playable games, including Texas Tech. Getty Images
This weekend is packed with action with the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups tipping off, along with NBA and soccer matches from the world's top leagues. Let's jump into some lines where we see some value and place some wagers.
NCAA Tournament
Friday
West Virginia +5 O/U 152.5
Villanova
Texas Tech +2 O/U 137.5
Purdue
Syracuse + 11.5 O/U 133.5
Duke
Clemson +5 O/U 142.5
Kansas
Action
CASH | TICKETS
Villanova 71% 80%
Texas Tech 80% 53%
Syracuse 77% 54%
Kansas 58% 68%
Picks:
Villanova -5
Texas Tech +2
NBA
With under a five game separation between the 4th and 10th seeds in the Wild Western Conference, motivation and fatigue will be a key factor down the stretch.
Let's take a look at the Rockets and Blazers game for example.
The Blazers had their 13 game winning streak snapped, and the legs under the shots of the two Portland stars showed fatigue. The Dynamic duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum combined to go 0-12 from the 3-point line netting only 28 points while on the court for over 70 minutes.
On the opposite side, Houston's hottest tandem blew up the scoreboard accounting for 64 points, going 10-17 from behind the arch. The key is the pair managed to do this in less court time (64 minutes) but contributed in all facets of the game tacking on 14 rebounds and 13 assists
The game clearly meant more to a Blazer squad carrying a double-digit win streak as well as jousting for playoff position. Both Lillard and McCollum are playing career highs in minutes this season, and that is something we will monitor down the stretch. Heavy legs are bad news for a team that relies on their two stars two push the pace and knock down jump shots.
Harden, on the other hand, is averaging his lowest minutes per game in three years. This year he is down to 35.5 MPG, just two years ago in 2016 he was playing 38.1 MPG, almost three entire minutes more per game. Staying fresh down the stretch will be key.
Friday 3/22
Suns vs. Cavaliers
The Cavaliers need to close the season out strong to guarantee themselves homecourt in the first round. They currently have a 1.5 game cushion for homecourt, with the Pacers and Wizards proceeding within a few games putting the pressure on LeBron James crew. The only issue is there is only so much he can do, and the defensive efficiency of the Cavaliers has taken a hit. In the last ten games, Cleveland's defense ranks 25th in the NBA (112.5). During those ten games, they are 6-4, and the offense has been carrying the team. The Cavaliers are third in offensive efficiency during the time frame and are top 10 in Net Rating, Assist%, Ast/TO ratio, all while leading the league in True shooting percentage 60.8%. So, you ask yourself, why haven't they had more success? Rebounding is your answer, and Cleveland has been horrible as of late. In the last ten games, they are 27th in offensive and 26th in defensive rebounding. How do these numbers help us handicap Friday night's matchup? These teams faced off March 13th, and Cleveland lit it up dropping 129 points in a 22-point blowout. When looking at the final score one would think the game was completely lopsided, but that wasn't the case. The Suns fell behind 20 points in the opening 12 minutes but were only outscored by 4, 6 and 0 in the following quarters. The Cavaliers offense had significant success vs. a Phoneix team that accommodates the league's fourth worse defense in their last ten contests. We like to use this sample size as some teams are mailing it in while others are fighting for their postseason lives. This sample gives us a better measure of where these teams heads are at down the stretch.
The Cavaliers need to win and LeBron has thrown the team on his back as of late. In the last meeting, he had a triple-double, and the Cavaliers scored 68 first-half points followed by 34 points in the 3rd. They would cruise to the finish line, only tallying 27 in the closing 12 minutes for a total of 129. I expect the same from Cleveland at home in a contest they would like to blow wide open and rest legs down the stretch. Phoenix is in offseason mode dropping nine straight, and this matchup will be no different.
Play
Cavaliers 1st half -7.5
Cavaliers Team total 1st Quarter over 30.5
Cavaliers Team Total Over 120.5
Over 228
(Projected spread)
Jazz +3.5 vs. Spurs Under 194.5
San Antonio is on an 8-1 under streak, scoring less than 98 points in 5 of the last 7 games. The Jazz have held opponents under 99 points in 11 of the last 13 games and are listed as a -3.5 underdogs.
Play Under 195
Nuggets vs Wizards Over 219
International Soccer
Friday 3/22 11:00AM
Brazil vs. Russia Over 2.5
In a meaningless friendly fixture, look for both teams to play wide open soccer. The World Cup is being held in Russia this summer and leaving an exciting performance vs. one of the worlds elite is the perfect prescription for local fans to get behind their team leading up to the Cup. Imagine what a victory vs. Brazil can do for a teams morale. The Brazilians, on the contrary, will be looking to get past this match with minimal injuries, while always putting on the same offensive display as usual. Last time they were involved in friendly of the same nature, they played a thrilling 3-3 match vs. Spain in a game where defense was minimal, and both sides wanted to put on a show. Look for the same Friday.
Play Over 2.5 goals
Official Plays
Villanova -5
Texas Tech +2
(Projected spread)
Cavaliers 1st half -8
Cavaliers Team total 1st Quarter over 30.5
Cavaliers Team Total Over 120.5
Over 228
Jazz vs. Spurs Under 194.5
Nuggets vs. Wizards Over 219
Brazil vs. Russia Over 2.5
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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Stephen Curry closed his eyes and rested his tired head on Jimmy Butler's right shoulder as the superstars shared another postgame moment.
This time, with Butler injured and wearing street clothes — a full-length fur coat at that.
“Well first, he had a fantastic coat on,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “I thought he was going to be way too hot in that thing.”
Sidelined for Game 3 of Golden State's first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets, Butler had a front-row seat to watch his teammate take over Saturday night in a 104-93 win that gave the Warriors a 2-1 lead.
Curry scored 36 points with five 3-pointers and had nine assists and seven rebounds in nearly 41 minutes. He had been determined to do more if Butler couldn't play after injuring his pelvis and suffering a deep gluteal muscle contusion in a hard fall during Game 2.
Butler and Curry can compare notes on their injured backsides, given that Curry has dealt with a bruised tailbone multiple times. For now, Curry appreciates the support, whether Butler is in uniform or not.
And the fur Butler was wearing?
“I almost didn't need a hot pack on the sideline sitting next to him. There was plenty of heat emanating from him,” Curry said before adding, “He's a savvy veteran, high-IQ guy, he's got a presence whether he's active or not where his voice matters, and we needed him to lift everybody up on the bench and give us that energy. His presence matched the fit for sure.”
Kerr wasn't ready to guess whether Butler will be able to play in Game 4 on Monday night.
“He’s literally day-to-day. We have tomorrow off. It will be helpful for him to have another day, and then it’s a night game,” Kerr said. “So he gets a few extra hours. So we’ll see. I have no idea right now if he’s going to play.”
Butler had been set to go through his pregame routine, which he does out of sight on the team's practice court and not the playing floor before games at Chase Center. He had an MRI exam Thursday in the Bay Area a day after he was hurt in Houston.
“We had to have Jimmy’s back while he was out,” said Gary Payton II, who scored 11 of his 16 points in the fourth quarter. “Hopefully we get Jimmy back for Game 4 and get back to our regularly scheduled program.”
Jonathan Kuminga, who didn't play for three straight games before rejoining the rotation in Game 2 when Butler got hurt, was in the starting lineup for his fourth career playoff start.
Butler went down hard when he was fouled by Amen Thompson late in the first quarter and then missed the rest of the Warriors’ 109-94 Game 2 loss on Wednesday night.
Butler tried to secure a rebound when Thompson undercut him and sent the Warriors star’s feet high into the air so that he came down straight onto his tailbone. Both players thudded to the floor and Butler grimaced in pain, grabbing at his backside. He stayed in briefly to shoot two free throws before going to the locker room.
Kerr appreciated Butler's insight on the bench.
“Jimmy is so smart. He reminds me so much of Andre Iguodala," Kerr said. “Incredible basketball IQ and then the ability to communicate what he’s seeing to his teammates on the bench. I thought Jimmy was important for us tonight in that regard. He was talking to guys throughout the game, and giving them advice, giving some help, and that was big.”
In the Game 1 win against the Rockets, Butler had 25 points on 10-for-19 shooting, seven rebounds, six assists and five steals in 42 minutes. The Warriors are 26-9 since Butler made his debut at Chicago on Feb. 8, including 23-8 in the regular season, a play-in tournament win over Memphis and the three games against Houston.
“We know they are still dangerous without Butler, so that doesn’t change anything as far as that," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “We didn’t make them pay, especially with the paint shots.”