GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: Some midweek plays on the NBA and soccer

Bookie Busters: Some midweek plays on the NBA and soccer
Ronaldo and Real Madrid should be money makers. Photo by Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images

Although the Astros had an abysmal performance Friday night, Bookie Busters still found a way to profit for the weekend

5-3-1

MLB 0-2

Astros-1.5 LOSS

Astros Total Runs over 5  lOSS

NBA 3-0

New Orleans Team Total Over 115  WIN

New Orleans 1st half -6  WIN

New Orleans  First quarter -3  WIN

UFC 0-1

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -112  LOSS

Soccer 2-0-1

Manchester Utd vs. Manchester City

Over 2.5 goals  WIN

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

Under 3  WIN

Roma vs. Barcelona

Over 3 -118 PUSH

NBA

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Wednesday night gives NBA enthusiast everything you want out of a season finale, one game for postseason life, an NBA scheduler 's dream!

Both teams come into this matchup with familiarity as they faced off less than a week ago in a Denver 100-96 victory. On that night, the Timberwolves played a sound first half going into the intermission with a 54-51 lead. In the closing half, they only put up 42 points while ending the night shooting 25% from 3-point range. Denver is finishing strong down the stretch, having reeled off eight wins in the last ten games. On this steak they have ranked top ten in both offensive efficiency (7th) and defensive efficiency (8th). Denver, is a team known for its offensive pace and the way the team runs out in transition. But on this streak, they have slowed down the pace considerably, ranking 20th on the five-game run. Slowing the pace down has allowed the Denver interior players to be in optimal positions to rebound and this had translated to the third best offensive rebound percentage in the NBA in the small time frame.

The Pick

In the matchup on April 4 in Denver, the Nuggets were favored by 4.5 points. Now the line has changed 7.5  points with home court flipping, and I don't know if it's justified with the current form of these two teams. Yes, Minnesota has won its last two games but the competition was subpar vs. teams in offseason mode (Lakers, Grizzlies). Before that, they lost to a couple of potential playoff teams in the Nuggets and Jazz. Dating back to March 11, the Timberwolves have been on an odd streak off winning two games and losing two games consecutively. As mentioned earlier, they just won their last two games, so I guess we know what comes next. Denver, welcome to the postseason.

Denver +3

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Oklahoma City needs to better its seeding with a win as their playoff spot is already clinched. In their path, a poor Memphis team that is gasping for air to make it to the finish line of the NBA season. Memphis is bottom 5 in the NBA in first-half points (51) while owning a -4.1 point margin in opening halves. The Thunder, average 54.7 points in the first-halves and carry a top 5 margin of +2.8 in the opening 24 minutes of games.  Look for the Thunder to come out fast and make a statement at home, this game gets out of hand, quickly.

The Pick

Thunder First Half -7

Thunder Team Total Over

*Projected line

Soccer

Champions League

Real Madrid vs. Juventus

The deciding leg in a two-way tie that sits at 3-0, the home team has the benefit of playing against a team that will be desperate and will be missing their best player Dybala. With 20 goals in their last seven matches attached to the space they will have in this game will be enough to get them on the score sheet a few times. Real Madrid, with a comfortable win.

The Pick

Real Madrid Money line

Real Madrid -1

Real Madrid Team Total Over 2

Ronaldo to score a goal anytime

For any questions or comments reach me  @JerryBoknowz on twitter

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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