Gambling Guide

Bookie Busters: The bread truck diaries

Time to haul in some bread. Credit: Getty Images

The smell of fresh bread is in the air and it's time for us to deliver. The weekend was a profitable one, and we won five of the last seven days. Tuesday's Rockets game dealt us a few big punches, but we look to continue our dominance in hoops with an action-filled Wednesday.

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Breda/Den Haag over three 1U -1.1
Arsenal / Man U
Over 3 3U +3
Both teams score and over 2.5 3U +3
over 2.5 2U +2
BTTS and over 2.5 1U +1
Real Madrid ML risk 5U +3.3
Seton Hall/Nova
Over 145 3U -3.3

Club UCR TT over 1.5 1U -1.3

Thunder TT over 32 -1.1
Los Angeles Clippers - Live 3rd Quarter TT Over 27.5 2U -2.2
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks 2nd half Over 108 5U +5
Over - L1H 85.5 5U MAX +5
Over 168.5 GAME 3u LIVE +3
Crieghton TT Over 41 1U -1.1
2nd half
First half under 24.5 Pro Bowl live 1U
Man United first half 1U -1.6
Man United -1.5 2U -3.3
Man United TT over 2.5 1U -1.1
Rashford scores goal 1U -1.2
Arsenal Over 3 Push
Arsenal -1.5 LOSS

Parlay 1U -1
City -1.5
Man U -1.5
Fullham over 2
Arsenal -1.5

Tennessee/South Carolina Over 83 2U -2.2
UPDATE 815 CST Pick your spots
Rockets/Pelicans o113 3U -3.3
Rockets TT 2nd half Over o59½ 5U MAX BOMB -5.5
Rockets - 3rd Quarter TT 29.5 3U -3.3
Rockets Game Over 242.5 Live 3U -3.3
Rockets Over - L1H 133.5 1U -1.1

The last article read +23U -18.5 +4.5U 2019

I tries to update all the lives. If I missed anything message me and I can update, Again, its almost impossible to all be on the same page for live bets so I try to get what I can.

New Plays

Crystal Palace at Southampton -

BTTS 3U Over 2.5 1U



Pool First half ML 3U

first Half asian-.5/1 3U

Over 3 3U

Salah goal 2U

Match Result and O/U

Over 2.5 Goals and Liverpool win 5U

Chelsea ML 2U

Parlay Southhamp/ Palace over 2 -190

Barcelona Over 2.5 TT -169

Chelsea ML

Parlay 2U

Barca TT over 2.5

Liverpool game Over 3



First half over 1.5 5U MAX

Game over 4 3U

Messi Mulitple Goals prop

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz Twitter.

Be sure to check out my show MoneyLine with Josh Jordan on ESPN 97.5. We're on every Sunday from 10-noon, and we'll talk a lot of fantasy football and NFL gambling. Also, be sure to follow us @Moneyline975 on Twitter.

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Tucker looks like the real deal. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Kyle Tucker finally had his breakout season in 2020. The 23-year-old flashed potential to be a legitimate five-tool threat. He slashed .268/.325/.512, swiped eight bags, and played above average defense. Is Tucker's performance sustainable? Not only that, but is there room for growth?

Hard Hit % - 44.5%

Barrel % - 9.1%

K % - 20.2%

BB % - 7.9%
Chase % - 26.2%

The first thing to realize with Kyle Tucker is the small sample size at the MLB level. Despite appearing in three separate seasons, he's played in a total of 108 games, which is obviously quite a bit shy of even one full season. He also has an extremely unique swing that you wouldn't teach to anybody, but it "works" for him. This makes him a tough hitter to judge, as it's uncomfortable judging mechanics that work for him, and it's uncomfortable judging numbers that haven't had time to develop trends.

Hard Hit, Barrel, and Chase numbers are unavailable for the minors, but walk and strikeouts percentages are. This creates the ability to at least look at one trend.

Tucker broke onto the scene in 2018 with a monstrous season for AAA Fresno, the Astros affiliate at the time. In 2018, Tucker slashed .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers and 20 steals. He had an 18.1% K% and a 10.3% BB% that season. In 2019, Tucker struck out a little bit more (21.6%) but also walked a little bit more (11.2%). Tucker's 20.2% K% in 2020 is more in line with his minor league K%, indicating he's adjusted to major league pitching.

Tucker essentially put the pieces of contact ability and quality of contact from his previous MLB stints together in 2020. In 2018, Tucker didn't strike out very much (18.1% K%), but his 3.9% Barrel % didn't strike fear in any opponent.

In 2019, Tucker had a 12.8% Barrel %, and his 92 MPH average exit velocity is the best of his three seasons in MLB, but he struck out 27.8% of the time and walked just 5.6% of the time.

In 2020, there's a marriage between the two. His K% and BB% aren't as good as his 2018 marks, but they're better than his 2019 marks. His exit velocity and Barrel % aren't as good as his 2019 marks, but they're better than his 2018 marks. Tucker became a hitter that was able to do more damage without sacrificing consistency.

Tucker had a xBA of .267, which is right in line with his .268 average. His .459 xSLG lags behind his .512 actual SLG, but it isn't a catastrophic drop. The version of Tucker Astros fans saw is essentially who he is, but how does he improve?

What really unlocked Tucker in 2020 was a change in his setup.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here he is on August 2nd against the Angels. As you can see, he's standing pretty straight up, and he has a "neutral" stance. Following the game on Aug. 2, Tucker was batting .200/.250/.300 with no homers.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here's Tucker on August 6th, just a few days later. He's started to close off his stance just a bit, but he's still pretty neutral, and he has a little more forward body lean with his torso. Following the game on Aug. 6, he was batting .214/.267/.357 with a homer.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Now, here's Tucker on August 10th. His stance is considerably closed off, and he's maintaining the forward body lean he adopted on August 6th. Following the game on Aug. 10, Tucker was batting .190/.230/.328. It would be the last time any of those numbers would be that low the rest of the year. He maintained that stance for the rest of the season, and he finished the month of August hitting .272/.333/.588.

The swing change allowed him to be a factor on the outside pitch. Tucker would pull off on his front side, which made it tough for him to keep balls fair on the pull side. He'd often yank inside fastballs into the stands down the right field line. It also made him uncompetitive on outside strikes, as he'd either swing-and-miss, or roll them over into the shift.

After he made the change, Tucker started steering inside pitches fair, and he was able to do something with pitches on the outer third.

The next step is finding a way to continue to diversify his batted ball profile. Tucker's pull percentage in 2020 was 47%. That's a higher pull % than guys like Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson. It was only 1% lower than Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo.

The one dimensional batted ball profile allows teams to shift Tucker aggressively. Teams shifted Tucker in 74% of his at-bats. His wOBA against the shift is .304. In AB's where teams didn't shift him, Tucker had a .455 wOBA. The shift hurts Tucker more than most as well, because he hits the ball on the ground 39% of the time. Gallo and Olson hit it on the ground 32% and 35% of the time respectively.

Lastly, Tucker's performance on breaking balls leaves a lot to be desired. He crushes fastballs, as he batted .303 with a .574 SLG against fastballs in 2020, with a .292 xBA and .528 xSLG. His .208 AVG and .396 SLG against breaking balls aren't very good, and his .209 xBA and .340 xSLG don't tell a prettier story. His 32% whiff % against breaking balls is nearly double his whiff % on fastballs.

If Tucker can learn to be more competitive against breaking balls and learn to use the whole field, then he'll be a really scary hitter. If he doesn't, teams will be able to gameplan for him, and he'll see streaky production similar to other one dimensional hitters like Matt Carpenter and the aforementioned Gallo and Olson.

While the bat may be streaky, Tucker brings it with the glove and on the bases. He had 5 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in the outfield in 2020, a 0.6 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and he was plus-4 in Outs Above Average. His well above average speed and instincts give him the ability to be a rangy outfielder and dangerous baserunner.

Tucker had a breakout season in 2020, but there's still changes left to be made if he wants to be a breakout star and not a one hit wonder.

This is part four of an offseason series covering the 2020 Houston Astros. Be sure to check out parts 1-3 on SportsMap.

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