GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters weekend edition: NBA playoffs and soccer plays

Bookie Busters weekend edition: NBA playoffs and soccer plays
Look for Brad Stevens to have an answer in Game 1. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

5-2 last Week  v 29-12 in the Last month (70%)

Celtics -1   WIN

Chelsea -1.5     -155 LOSS

Leicester vs. Arsenal

Over 3    WIN

Barcelona vs. Villarreal

Over 3.5  WIN

Barcelona Team Total over 2.5  WIN

Sevilla  vs. Real Madrid

Sevilla Pk WIN

Predators vs. Jets

Preds Moneyline LOSS

Celtics vs. Cavaliers

The matchup we all thought would happen, well at least when Boston was able to acquire the highly sought out free agent Gordon Hayward. At the time of the trade, the Celtics could have been bought at 12-1 to win the NBA Championship. Things were looking bright for the Celtic faithful, and fans couldn't wait for the season to tip-off.

Five minutes and 15 seconds into the enchanting journey that was to be, a gruesome ankle injury that nauseated the world, left things somewhat in question for a team who still had plenty of talent and was led by one of the league's top head coaches. Vegas quickly reacted and dropped the odds to the 20-1 range after the Hayward loss, and pundits still thought the number was high on a team led by Kyrie Irving and a plethora of young talent.

Then the headline read...

#NEBHInjuryReport: Kyrie Irving will undergo a procedure this Saturday to remove two screws implanted in his patella from an injury suffered during the 2015 NBA Finals.

He is expected to make a full recovery in 4-5 months.

Again, Boston was left looking for answers after news broke of the star point guard set to miss the remainder of the season. The good ol' guys down in the Desert reacted quickly and boosted the Celtic's future odds to the 80-1 Range.

Fast forward to the Conference finals, and the current odds are:

Warriors -130

Rockets   +245

Cavaliers +615

Celtics  +2800

Lines courtesy of 5dimes as of 5/10/18

Things have changed drastically, but with only four teams left, the 28-1 payout the books are offering lets us know exactly what the man thinks about this team's chances to take the title.

The Pick

This year's recent history between the two teams leaves us nothing as they lineups are highly altered. In the first game, the season opened with Boston's Kyrie Irving matched up vs. Derrick Rose, while Hayward was on LeBron James and, well, let's not touch that subject again for the sake of the uneasy stomach.

The second matchup featured a team that had welcomed back Isaiah Thomas the night before but wasn't featured against his former team after easing his way back into the team's lineup. The Celtics would dominate the Cavaliers beating them 102-88, and the loss would lead Cleveland on a skid that would ultimately lead to their debacle.

The Final matchup finally gave us a revamped Cleveland roster on a Sunday afternoon, and the new nucleus shined under the national microscope. Jordan Clarkson riddled his way to 17 points followed by Rodney Hood's 15 point performance, leaving us with reason to believe that LeBron once again had life. Cleveland dominated 121-99 on that Sunday Bloody Sunday in Beantown, that was supposed to be a night that Paul Pierce was remembered.

These two franchises have plenty of postseason history, and this will be their 40th encounter through seven playoff series. Things have been pretty evenly split with the Cavaliers leading the way 20-19. Boston will reap the benefits of their hard efforts by opening with home court advantage, something that plays well for them in this series. In the previous 39 postseason matchups, the Cavs have struggled as visitors and are 7-13 while playing in Boston. The Celtics were 34-14 on their home floor this season and remain undefeated at the TD Garden in these playoffs. I believe the home team is better coached and overall better contracted. Brad Stevens will make sure LeBron isn't the reason his team loses, so it will be on one of the role players to step up with a big game. The Cavaliers will need a few games to adjust to the looks he will be getting from the league's top-rated defense in points allowed. Give me the Celtics in Game 1, in a statement game, letting the world know; this won't be a pushover. Take Big Green on a festive Sunday, Word to your Mother.

Celtics +1

Soccer

Dynamo vs. Whitecaps

Over 2.5

RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin

Over 3

Levante vs. Barcelona

Over 3.5

Both Teams to score

Lines courtesy of 5dimes as of 5/10/18

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoknowz on twitter


 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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