BOXING'S BIG LOSS?
The Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch is in serious jeopardy, and Mr. Alvarez has some explaining to do
Tim Burgess
Mar 26, 2018, 7:46 am
Less than six weeks from now Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin are set to meet in the ring at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It’s a rematch everyone wants. The two had a spirited fight the first time around that ended in a disputed draw after most onlookers felt Golovkin did enough to get the win. Canelo/Golovkin 1 was the biggest payday of both fighters’ careers; and the sequel would in all likelihood eclipse the gate for the first matchup. The rematch is full of questions: Has Canelo’s hand speed improved enough to put Golovkin on the canvas for the first time in his career? Is the older Golovkin still the puncher he was in his physical prime? These and a myriad of other questions ran through boxing fans’ heads just a few days ago. But now, all of those questions are gone. Only one question remains on the minds of boxing fans now: will the rematch between Canelo and Golovkin even take place?
Alvarez tested positive for the banned substance clenbuterol twice in February. It’s a substance that has been in the news for the past several years. Many athletes in Mexico have tested positive for clenbuterol, because meat is Mexico is often laced with the substance in order to promote quicker growth of animals. Because Alvarez’s training camp was taking place in Mexico at the time of the positive test, it’s easy to write off Canelo’s positive test as a accidental ingestion of tainted meat. And that’s exactly what Alvarez, along with his promoter Oscar De La Hoya did. Golden Boy Promotions, spearheaded by De La Hoya, released a statement blaming the positive test on Canelo eating tainted meat during his training camp in Guadalajara.
But despite Canelo’s explanation, the Nevada state athletic commission isn’t so sure. Following the positive test the NSAC slapped a temporary suspension on Alvarez. He’s set to appear before the NSAC on April 10th to explain what happened. If he can’t convince the panel that the clenbuterol ingestion was an accident, his suspension will be extended, which would kill any chance of a rematch with Golovkin, at least on May 5.
And it’s not just the NSAC who has issues with Alvarez’s explanation either. Golovkin, his scheduled opponent for May 5, isn’t buying it. Though normally mild-mannered and agreeable, Golovkin ripped into Alvarez this week. He called both Canelo and De La Hoya “dirty,” and accused Alvarez of cheating during the lead up to their first fight in September. Canelo, for his part, responded via Instagram by calling Golovkin a “little bitch,” and said he would “kick his ass” in the ring. But it seems as if at this point Canelo would be better served to save his efforts for convincing the NSAC of his innocence rather than throwing barbs at the man he’s supposed to be fighting in six weeks.
Many boxing fans have suggested that the temporary suspension of Canelo is merely a slap on the wrist, and Alvarez will be cleared of wrongdoing prior on April 10th because the fight will be lucrative for the state of Nevada. Perhaps this is the case, but several things have happened that would lead fans to believe the fight is in serious jeopardy. First, HBO held a boxing telecast on Saturday and did nothing to promote its pay-per-view broadcast of Canelo vs. Golovkin. This can’t be a coincidence; HBO is in the market of selling fights and Saturday’s boxing broadcast was a captive audience. If HBO was one hundred percent sure Canelo/GGG 2 was going to go on as scheduled they would have heavily promoted it on Saturday. Also, Golovkin promoter Tom Loeffler has spoken to multiple reporters about the fact that Golovkin will fight on May 5th no matter what, and discussed contingency plans in regards to replacing Alvarez if he is unable to fight. These are not conversations Loeffler would bother with if the fight was not in doubt, because Loeffler would be better served to spend his time hyping up the rematch with Canelo.
So what should Canelo do in order to make sure the rematch with Golovkin goes off on May 5? A truthful, detailed explanation would be a start. Golovkin has said that he wants Alvarez to take a lie detector test. While these tests are not permissible in court I think passing a polygraph would do wonders for Canelo in the court of public opinion, and would likely go a long way in leniency with the NSAC as well. Furthermore it would be wise for Canelo to come up with a plausible scenario of how this tainted meat was ingested. What date did it happen? Was he at a restaurant or at home? Who paid for it? We need to see all the details in black and white. It’s true that clenbuterol tainting of meat is a problem in Mexico, but that’s all the more reason that Canelo should have been more careful than this, if it was truly an accident. Alvarez and his team should have known better. A detailed explanation from trainers and nutritionists should be required as well. In addition, Alvarez has the resources to not train in Mexico in the first place. Pledging to have all future training camps in the United States would show a commitment to never testing positive again, and would show the NSAC Canelo was taking the situation seriously.
On May 5, 2018 Gennady Golovkin will be in the ring at T-Mobile Arena, ready to put on a show. Hopefully the man across from him will be Canelo Alvarez, the two ready to put on a performance similar to the one that wowed fans in September. But if that is to happen, Canelo has a lot of explaining to do. I, along with other boxing fans, expect to get that explanation, in all its gory details, on April 10.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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