TEXANS REVIEW

Cody Stoots: 11 observations from Saturday's Texans-Rams game

Cody Stoots: 11 observations from Saturday's Texans-Rams game
J.J. Watt looks good on the field. Zach Tarrant/Houstontexans.com

1. A lot of starters played and got some of the action they were asking for in this game. Not that many needed it, J.J. Watt looked ready to go last week against the 49ers and Tyrann Mathieu essentially came into camp ready to go. Deshaun Watson played three middling series, the last derailed by penalties, but he has had enough action and looks ready to go in Foxboro against the Patriots. 

2. Watt is far closer to the old Watt we are used to seeing as opposed to the shell of himself we saw last year before the injury. He darted past a defender and ankle tackled a running back on one play that had some holding their breath as there were a lot of big bodies there. Other times he was forcing false starts or fiddling with a blocker while the ball got out quick. It will be interesting to see if this can be a season-long explosion from him, but, there are no worries for the start of the season. 

3. Jadeveon Clowney is so strong and didn't even get to scratch the surface on what he is truly capable of in this game. The batted pass is great to see as it shows the continued evolution of Clowney and this defense. The quick passes will be a focus for opponents and Clowney and Watt will have to impact the passing game with the batted passes to counter or slow the attacks offenses use to neutralize them. Clowney had a big hand in the interception by Kareem Jackson as he was chasing and got his big paw up to change the way the play was viewed by the Rams quarterback. 

4. It was unfair to see Clowney and Watt line up next to each other. This is such a tough matchup to defend because it allows one of the rushers or run stoppers to find the inferior point of the blocking scheme quick and head for the ball. On this particular play, each earned a one-on-one matchup with Watt carrying his man downfield and Clowney disengaging to make a big hit on a running back. 

5. It will be near impossible to run on the Texans first unit this year. Though it wasn't Todd Gurley and company against the Texans defense, the Texans have shown throughout camp an ability to stymie rushing attacks. Watt and Clowney both affect the opposition differently and Whitney Mercilus has yet to play with them to really drive home how tough it will be to run on the Texans. Not to mention D.J. Reader who has looked nice in camp and Christian Covington who looks close to where he was last year when he was hurt for the season. 

6. It would have been great to see Watson play one more series as it would have had him manning the offense in the red zone. He doesn't need a ton of work there right now. Watson might be one of the best red zone quarterbacks the Texans have had, and frankly, will be the best in short order. It was nice to see Alfred Blue bounce the play out, find a hole, and punch it in. He is making the team much to the chagrin of a lot of Texans fans. With the status of D'Onta Foreman, Blue is the backup. He will need to make quick decisions and hit what holes are there for him. 

7. "Hurry back soon" Seantrell Henderson is not a phrase I ever thought I would type but here we are. The likely starter at right tackle has missed some time and Kendall Lamm has been his backup. Lamm is not a starter in this league and the dropoff to him as the swing tackle is significant. He had a holding call torpedo a drive when Watson was in the game. If Martinas Rankins was healthy from the start of camp I don't believe we would've seen much of Lamm in these spots. Rankin had some nice plays, but a miscommunication between he and fellow rookie Jordan Thomas led to the Brandon Weeden interception as the Texans backup QB had to get rid of it or he would've been smashed.

8. Sammie Coates has to be on this team. His abilities fit this team and the depth chart and when he is healthy and playing he can be used more on special teams when his services are needed there. He drew two big pass interference penalties and hauled in a perfect strike from Weeden for a big gain. The Texans need him; he's the only true outside wide receiver backup with experience. If they keep five or six wideouts, it doesn't matter, he should be on the team. 

9. Braxton Miller seems like he has made this team as well. Miller almost seems like a "when the lights come on" type of guy. His performances in games or game-like situations have impressed. I don't see a scenario where the Texans keep just five wideouts meaning with six, Miller is on the team. I'm not sure what player gets edged out because the Texans are keeping an extra wide receiver. 

10. There is a chance Shane Lechler could lose his job, but, it still seems unlikely. I believe the ideal scenario would be trying to stash Trevor Daniel some way and have him take over for the veteran next year. That's ideal though, and unlikely with Daniel playing so well. He had better positions to punt from than Lechler Saturday and has pushed Lechler harder than any competitor has in Lechler's time in Houston and even his final few years in Oakland. 

11. The reports of Kayvon Webster working out for the Texans isn't surprising. Even if Kevin Johnson was healthy the Texans haven't had anyone step up and grab the final cornerback spot. Webster is an interesting free agent. He spent time with the Broncos buried on the depth chart behind some of the best corners in the league but contributing on special teams. He played last year with the Rams but saw a ruptured Achilles end his season. If he is healthy he become an interesting candidate to be a veteran add to the 53-man roster. 

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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