How will Alvarez stack up against other high-profile call ups?
How will Yordan Alvarez's first season in the bigs go?
Jun 10, 2019, 6:55 am
Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images
We're one day into Yordan Alvarez's career, a day where he went 1 for 3 with a huge two-run home run for his first hit, but what many fans will want to know is: how will he look weeks and months from now once he has more experience under his belt? Conversely, how will he look once more of the league's top pitchers have faced him one or multiple times?
Let's take a stroll down baseball's memory lane and consider how some other highly-acclaimed prospects, both for Houston and around the league, did over their first 10, 25, and even 50 games in the majors.
Jose Altuve
If you've watched Astros baseball over the last few years, chances are at some point you've seen the video highlight of Altuve's first hit. It came in his very first game back on July 20th, 2011, but how did he fare after that? He performed excellently over his first ten games, recording a .371 average by going 13-for-35 over that span including two three-hit games.
He continued to hit well through his first 25 games, but would plateau a bit at the end of the 2011 season, going 14-for-67 in September to drag his average down to .276 to end the year. We all know that he's since become a hitting machine and AL MVP, but it was a case where he had initial success out the gate, then had to deal with pitchers adjusting to him with more exposure.
Alex Bregman
Contrary to Jose Altuve, Bregman had a much slower start to begin his time in the majors. Bregman did not record his first hit until his sixth game, and past that still managed only two hits over his first ten games, giving him an abysmal .053 average over that span.
Luckily, the team was patient with him, and he quickly turned things around. After his first 25 games, he had improved his average rapidly to .229 thanks in part to six multi-hit games over that span. He continued to adjust and build up discipline at the plate, ending the 2016 season with a .264 average and has gone on to stay near the top of the league in on-base percentage.
Carlos Correa
Alvarez should try to get some of Correa's time in the clubhouse for tips and pointers because Correa's burst on the scene in June of 2015 was excellent and steady. Correa was able to check a hit off his list in his first game and went on to get hits in nine of his first ten games including four multi-hit games and also hitting three home runs in that span.
Correa would continue to provide reliable offense for Houston the rest of that year, finishing the regular season with a .279 average and racking up 68 RBIs along the way after his June 8th debut. He'd cap off his rookie season by going 7-for-24 with 4 RBIs and a two-homer game in the 2015 playoffs.
Others around the league
Those were some of the recent Astros debuts that garnered a lot of attention, but who does Yordan Alvarez have to compete against as he gets compared to other successful call-ups across the league? Well, let's take a look at the two Rookie of the Year winners from last season, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Shoehei Ohtani.
First, Ohtani is a two-way player, so part of his debut and overall potential is shaped by his work on the mound, but let's take a look at his early numbers offensively. Ohtani did well in his first few games for the Angels, getting hits in eight of his first ten games, including getting his first hit in his debut and hitting for a .342 average over that span. He'd finish his rookie campaign with a .285 average, 22 home runs, and 61 RBIs.
Acuna had a decent start for the Braves in early 2018, getting his first hit out of the way in his first game on his way to going 13-for-42 for a .310 average over his first ten games. He'd regress slightly from that through his early months, dropping down to a .265 average before an injury sidelined him for most of June. After his return, though, he was a steady and reliable bat, finishing his rookie year with a .293 average.
What does all this mean for Alvarez?
Well, it proves two things. First, players like Yordan who have shown their potential at AAA deserve some patience if they don't hit dingers in every single game. See the above telling of Alex Bregman's poor start. Second, if he does come out of the gate quickly and replicates his crazy minor-league numbers against major-league pitching, it will be vital for him to find his steady, natural rhythm so that he can be a reliable contributor to the team and not plateau later and be a flash in the pan.
In any case, it will be an exciting time watching the early development of Yordan Alvarez. It will be especially intriguing to see if he's still in this lineup and making his presence known after the return of Houston's big guns in Altuve, Springer, and Correa. If Springer didn't already homer at the top of the lineup, chances are someone in the top of the lineup will get on base to give Alvarez plenty of opportunities for RBIs and multi-run homers this season.
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The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and is currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
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For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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