A three year pact for the Texans top corner

Grading the Texans move to bring back Bradley Roby

Cody Stoots
Mar 16, 2020, 3:27 am
Composite photo by Brandon Strange

The Texans brought back one of their biggest signings from last year making sure Bradley Roby doesn't get away at a position of need.

Roby back and Texans needed him

Once it became clear nearly the entire league was interested in former Broncos cornerback Chris Harris it seemed convincing Bradley Roby to come back to Houston was a priority. There was talk about Roby not being thrilled with his time in Houston and potentially not wanting to come back. It looks like the fit was there though and Roby steps into a position of need and prominence for the Texans as cornerback number one.

The money makes sense

This is actually a really great deal for the Texans and maybe a little under market for Roby. Bill O'Brien and his crew should be commended. Roby gets slightly more than he made last year and he falls outside the top ten in average annual salary. He gets a deal worth less than Malcolm Butler's deal he signed with the Titans a couple of years ago and really just a few million more than a deal Prince Amukamara signed a couple of years ago.

I say all this to say I believe the Texans got a little bargain and Roby got security and familiarity. He did get hurt, and had some hiccups last year, but the open market could have had him cashing in big on the Texans or someone else. Good job to get this done shortly after the CBA got done.

Where does he play now? Inside or out?

Earlier I called Bradley Roby the Texans number one cornerback. I believe he will be the best they have this season. He will also be the most important corner as well. Especially based on where he plays.

Roby played inside and outside for the Texans in 2019. The following stats are from Pro Football focus.

31 percent of the time he played inside (249/799) with a coverage rating on average of 63.4. Now, that's just four games where he primarily played inside. 58 percent of the time he played outside (462/799) where he averaged a coverage rating of 58.9. While playing outside he almost always had single digit amounts of snaps inside. When primarily inside, he ventured more outside.

Roby is clearly a key member of the defense going forward. It doesn't matter if he is playing inside or outside. But, based on his success inside, the need for three corners, and the other cornerbacks on the team, I think there's a chance he will play plenty inside.

Lonnie Johnson and Gareon Conley primarily play outside. It would stand to reason a second round pick in his second year like Johnson and a player who cost a third round pick in a trade like Conley would be outside with Roby inside. Now, maybe Roby starts outside and goes inside on key downs. With Anthony Weaver at the helm of the defense now, it is a bit of a guessing game how he will use Roby.

Roby's Reasonable Deal Earns Texans an A

When you factor in the need at cornerback, the expected need in free agency by the rest of the league, and the solid contract the Texans really did a great job with this. Now it is up to Roby to make the most after he proved enough to the Texans on his prove-it deal last year.

Grade: A

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BREGMAN UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

A deep dive into Alex Bregman's mechanics reveals something interesting

Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.

All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.

Hard Hit % - 33.6%

Barrel % - 3.9%

K% - 14.4%

BB% - 13.3%

Chase % - 18.1%

Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.

There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.

His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.

Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.

Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.

The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.

The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.

He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.

Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.

It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.

Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.

Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.

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