4TH AND A MILE WITH PAUL MUTH
Here are 3 big questions the Rockets must answer this season
Dec 23, 2020, 11:53 am
This season will be tough to predict. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
All the reasons Christian Wood looks like the real deal for Rockets
Normally I'd say something like "if you blinked you would have missed the Rockets off-season," but it's difficult to ignore something that's been shoved in Rockets fans' faces for a month straight. Either way it was easily the NBA's shortest off-season ever, and as we take one last gulp of off-season air before diving into another year let's get everyone set with the layman's guide to the 2020-2021 Rockets.
First let's take a look at the roster from the team's last game and see where everyone is:
| Name | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| James Harden | SG | On roster (for now) |
| P.J. Tucker | PF | On roster |
| Robert Covington | PF | Traded to Portland |
| Russell Westbrook | PG | Traded to Washington |
| Eric Gordon | SG | On roster |
| Jeff Green | PF | Gone |
| Ben McLemore | SF | On roster |
| Bruno Caboclo | SF | On roster |
| Austin Rivers | PG | Gone |
| Chris Clemons | PG | On roster (season ending injury) |
| Michael Frazier | G | Gone |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | F | Gone |
| DeMarre Carroll | F | Gone |
Note: Danuel House Jr. was on the team and remains so. He was dismissed from the playoff roster for COVID-19 protocol violations.
As you can see there's been a ton of turnover, and not just from the player side. The Rockets also hired a new head coach in Stephen Silas, and promoted Rafael Stone to general manager, but we'll get to that.
The new guys worth knowing
John Wall, PG: Arrived as part of a trade with Washington in exchange for Russell Westbrook. After almost two seasons off the court due to injuries, Wall has shown traces of the explosiveness most believed would have faded by now. Has all-star potential when healthy. More of a drive to the basket guy versus a shooter, but possesses elite court vision and passing ability.
Christian Wood, PF/C: Arrived as part of a sign and trade with Detroit. Undrafted big man that has developed into an athletic floor runner that can also space the floor and drain shots from long range. Underrated signing, as this was the big man the Rockets have been looking for for years. Keep an eye on him
DeMarcus Cousins, C: Signed a veteran's minimum deal. Former all star whose career has also been sidetracked with injuries. If he can remain healthy, he could be huge in the playoffs. A true center by definition, Cousins also has range and solid passing skills. Expect him to contribute key minutes from the bench.
Jae'Sean Tate, Forward: Played overseas in Australia. He's 6'4" and clocks in at about 230 pounds, so good luck pushing him around. Powerful frame with a solid outside shot.
Opening day roster starters (projected)
| Position | Name |
|---|---|
| Point Guard | John Wall |
| Shooting Guard | James Harden |
| Small Forward | Danuel House Jr. |
| Power Forward | P.J. Tucker |
| Center | Christian Wood |
Eric Gordon looks to resume his role as the team's sixth man after a disappointing season last year. Cousins and Tate should provide solid minutes in the paint, while Ben McLemore and newcomer Sterling Brown will rotate in the backcourt.
This is a much younger, much bigger, and more versatile lineup than the one the Rockets used to whimper out of the playoffs last season. Expect a huge improvement on defense as well as rebounding.
Offseason storylines
No more Morey-ball: After 13 years, Daryl Morey stepped down from the Rockets general manager role to "spend more time with his family." About a month later he was introduced as the president of operations for the Philadelphia 76ers. The parting was reported as amicable between Morey and the Rocket, but the writing was on the wall after his now-infamous Hong Kong support tweet. Between being publicly chastised and financially constrained by Rockets owner Tilman Ferttita, the eventual separation came as hardly a surprise. The Rockets now move on with Rafael Stone, an in house promotion tasked with navigating the franchise's biggest turning point since trading Hakeem Olajuwon in 2001.
Harden wants out - Following the turnover at the head coach and general manager position, former MVP guard James Harden made the unexpected announcement that he wished to be traded in early November. Since then, it's pretty much the only thing anyone has heard about the Rockets. At this point it's not so much a matter of if Harden is traded, but when and where.
Three questions leading into the season
1. Can the Kentucky boys stay healthy? Wildcat alumns Wall and Cousins should contribute big minutes this season, but both are coming off pretty nasty injuries. How long will it take to get them back into game shape? How much of their prior all star abilities remain? As they say, the most important ability is availability, and the health of those two will be critical in the Rockets playing competitive basketball this season.
2. How much Morey-ball stays in place? The Rockets have, for years now, been known as a team that focuses on isolation ball and three point shooting. Coach Silas claims there will be more of the same philosophy implemented, but the dramatic reshaping of the roster suggests a more traditional and versatile strategy going forward. Harden-ball was ugly, but it worked. Rockets fans may be in store for a more exciting product if the coaching mindset has in fact shifted.
3. Where will James Harden land? Who knows. If I had my way, I'd go for a Denver trade with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in return.
Prediction
It's pretty much impossible to tell at this point. This is certainly not the roster that will end the season together. I'd say between all of the change that has already happened and has yet to, I don't see the Rockets higher than a 6th seed, if that.
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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.