JOSE ALTUVE DEEP DIVE

Here's the version of Jose Altuve the Astros should expect to see in 2021

Astros Jose Altuve
Altuve was terrific in the postseason. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Jose Altuve had a similar season to his middle infield counterpart Carlos Correa. Both had subpar regular seasons at the plate before lighting it up in the postseason. Altuve is under contract through 2024, so there aren't any extension questions like there are for Correa, but Altuve's performance is vital to the Astros future success. Which version of Altuve is real? The regular season one or the postseason one?

Hard Hit % - 33.3%

Barrel % - 4.6%

K% - 18.6%

BB% - 8.1%

Chase % - 35.2%

(Above numbers from 2020)

There are a few statistical changes for Altuve in 2020 from past seasons. First, his Barrel % dropped from 8.1% to 4.6%. That would be his lowest Barrel % since 2015 (3.1%), which was the last season before Altuve began a swing overhaul to start working more uphill and drive the ball more. Altuve had established himself as a star by then, but he was hardly a home run threat, and he relied more on his speed.

Next, his Chase % increased to 35.2%. That was a 5.2% increase from 2019 and 2018, when he had exactly 30% marks both times. Again, it was the highest his Chase % has been since 2015, when it was 34.1%. However, Altuve made contact on those swings 79.7% of the time. In 2020, he made contact on chase swings just 67.3% of the time. Altuve has a reputation as a good bad ball hitter, but he's gotten worse and worse at that the older he's gotten. Is it because of age? No. It's because of swing change.

Look at the evolution of Altuve's swing from '14 to '17. In '14 and '15, Altuve clearly swung downhill. He's not thinking about driving the ball whatsoever; he's just trying to put the bat on the ball and find a hole. While '16 & '17 are also ground balls, the swings are completely different. In the latter two swings, he's working more uphill, his bat enters the zone at a more vertical angle, and he's trying to drive the baseball.

The swing evolution is a good thing. It's why Altuve is a better overall hitter now than he was then. It just means that he isn't able to do as much with those pitches off the plate. He has to wait for a ball he can drive.

Year

Chase %

Chase Contact %

Slugging %

2015

34.1%

79.7%

.459

2016

30.5%

75.1%

.531

2017

31.8%

72.3%

.547

2018

30%

70.3%

.451

2019

30%

68.6%

.550

2020

35.2%

67.3%

.344

The outliers here are 2018 and 2020. Remember, Altuve was playing on a bad knee for a good portion of 2018, and that played the biggest factor in the dip in power production. In 2020, it's the chase rate and all the other factors of a COVID season.

So how did Altuve turn around his performance in the postseason? He started chasing less. Postseason splits aren't provided for those statistics, so I went through each postseason game and tallied his discipline. Here are the results:

  • Saw 173 pitches outside the strike zone
  • Chased 31 times
  • Chase % - 17.9%

He cut his Chase % in half. Essentially, Altuve went from chasing about as often as Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to chasing about as often as teammate Alex Bregman. Altuve's Hard Hit % in the 2020 postseason was 41%, a 7% improvement on his regular season mark. It makes sense, as pitchers are forced to come to hitters and give them pitches they can do more damage with if they chase less often. It resulted in a postseason where he slashed .375/.500/.729 with five homers and walked more than he struck out (11 BB vs. 8 K).

Altuve also had some indicators of bad luck that made his regular season numbers look worse than they really should have been. He had a .250 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which is a .053 point drop from last season, and it's .084 below his career mark. His .230 xBA (Expected Batting Average) isn't great, but it's still a touch better than the .219 he finished with. Similarly, his .352 xSLG isn't great, but it's a little better than the .344 SLG he actually recorded. Altuve, for his entire career, has outperformed his expected statistics. Altuve has outperformed his xBA in every season since Statcast was adopted (2015). He's outperformed his xSLG in all but one season. That doesn't mean Altuve has been perpetually lucky and that luck finally turned, it means that a "normal" Altuve will outperform those metrics, and it was unlucky this year that he didn't.

Some people may be concerned that Altuve is losing some athleticism now that he's on the wrong side of 30. There aren't any signs of him losing a step. His 28.4 ft/s average sprint speed is just 0.2 ft/s worse than last year. It's better than 2017 and 2018, and it's tied with 2015 and 2016. He's the same runner he's always been. Altuve was in the 89th percentile in MLB in sprint speed. Altuve was the second fastest player on the Astros, just 0.2 ft/s behind Myles Straw.

Altuve isn't over the hill yet. He proved in the postseason that he's still an elite hitter when he's on his game. As long as he fixes the issues he had with expanding the zone in 2020, he should be back to the Altuve of old for the entirety of 2021.

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Ravens hammer the Texans, 31-2. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Lamar Jackson broke the NFL career rushing record for quarterbacks in Baltimore's 31-2 victory over the Houston Texans on Wednesday, bolstering his case for MVP as the Ravens moved closer to the AFC North title.

*Don't miss the video below as the guys from Texans on Tap react to the game live on YouTube!

Jackson threw for 168 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 87 yards and another score. He pushed his career rushing total to 6,110 to move past Michael Vick, who had 6,109 in his 13-year career.

The Ravens (11-5) have already wrapped up their third straight playoff berth and need a victory over Cleveland next week to win the division over Pittsburgh. The Steelers dropped a third straight with a loss to Kansas City on Wednesday.

Jackson, the MVP last season and in 2019, put on a show rivaled only by the spectacular Super Bowl-caliber halftime performance by Beyoncé to give Baltimore its third straight win. And he needed just more than three quarters to do it, giving way to Josh Johnson with about 10 minutes left and the game long decided.

Jackson threw 9- and 1-yard TD passes and was not touched on a 48-yard scoring scamper that made it 24-2 in the third quarter.

Derrick Henry ran for 147 yards and set the Ravens season record with his 16th touchdown on a 2-yard run in the first quarter. He eclipsed Ray Rice (2011) and Mark Ingram (2019).

Baltimore dominated a Houston team reeling after losing dynamic receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending knee injury Saturday.

The AFC South champs struggled to finish drives and got their only points on a safety in the second quarter. C.J. Stroud threw for 185 yards, but was sacked five times and threw an interception and Joe Mixon managed just 26 yards rushing as the Texans (9-7) lost a second straight.

Rookie Kamari Lassiter dropped Henry for a 4-yard loss for the safety with about 10 minutes left in the first half to cut the lead to 10-2.

Dameon Pierce then returned the kickoff 45 yards to get the Texans to their 43. But they came away empty when Mixon was stopped on the 1 after grabbing a short pass on fourth-and-3.

Jackson then orchestrated a 99-yard drive to pad the lead. He scrambled to evade the rush and found Mark Andrews for a 67-yard gain to get the Ravens in the red zone with just more than two minutes left in the first half.

Isaiah Likely’s 9-yard TD reception two plays later made it 17-2. It was the first 17-2 halftime score in NFL history.

Kyle Hamilton intercepted Stroud's pass on the first drive of the second half. Two plays later, Jackson’s long TD run made it 24-2.

He set the rushing record on a 6-yard run on Baltimore’s next drive. Later in the drive, he scrambled to escape several defenders before finding Andrews for a 1-yard score to leave Baltimore up 31-2.

Injuries

Ravens RB Rasheen Ali injured his hip in the third quarter and didn’t return. … Texans TE Cade Stover returned after missing two games following an emergency appendectomy.

Up next

The Ravens host the Browns, and the Texans visit the Titans next weekend. The game dates have yet to be determined.

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