JOSE ALTUVE DEEP DIVE

Here's the version of Jose Altuve the Astros should expect to see in 2021

Astros Jose Altuve
Altuve was terrific in the postseason. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Jose Altuve had a similar season to his middle infield counterpart Carlos Correa. Both had subpar regular seasons at the plate before lighting it up in the postseason. Altuve is under contract through 2024, so there aren't any extension questions like there are for Correa, but Altuve's performance is vital to the Astros future success. Which version of Altuve is real? The regular season one or the postseason one?

Hard Hit % - 33.3%

Barrel % - 4.6%

K% - 18.6%

BB% - 8.1%

Chase % - 35.2%

(Above numbers from 2020)

There are a few statistical changes for Altuve in 2020 from past seasons. First, his Barrel % dropped from 8.1% to 4.6%. That would be his lowest Barrel % since 2015 (3.1%), which was the last season before Altuve began a swing overhaul to start working more uphill and drive the ball more. Altuve had established himself as a star by then, but he was hardly a home run threat, and he relied more on his speed.

Next, his Chase % increased to 35.2%. That was a 5.2% increase from 2019 and 2018, when he had exactly 30% marks both times. Again, it was the highest his Chase % has been since 2015, when it was 34.1%. However, Altuve made contact on those swings 79.7% of the time. In 2020, he made contact on chase swings just 67.3% of the time. Altuve has a reputation as a good bad ball hitter, but he's gotten worse and worse at that the older he's gotten. Is it because of age? No. It's because of swing change.

Look at the evolution of Altuve's swing from '14 to '17. In '14 and '15, Altuve clearly swung downhill. He's not thinking about driving the ball whatsoever; he's just trying to put the bat on the ball and find a hole. While '16 & '17 are also ground balls, the swings are completely different. In the latter two swings, he's working more uphill, his bat enters the zone at a more vertical angle, and he's trying to drive the baseball.

The swing evolution is a good thing. It's why Altuve is a better overall hitter now than he was then. It just means that he isn't able to do as much with those pitches off the plate. He has to wait for a ball he can drive.

Year

Chase %

Chase Contact %

Slugging %

2015

34.1%

79.7%

.459

2016

30.5%

75.1%

.531

2017

31.8%

72.3%

.547

2018

30%

70.3%

.451

2019

30%

68.6%

.550

2020

35.2%

67.3%

.344

The outliers here are 2018 and 2020. Remember, Altuve was playing on a bad knee for a good portion of 2018, and that played the biggest factor in the dip in power production. In 2020, it's the chase rate and all the other factors of a COVID season.

So how did Altuve turn around his performance in the postseason? He started chasing less. Postseason splits aren't provided for those statistics, so I went through each postseason game and tallied his discipline. Here are the results:

  • Saw 173 pitches outside the strike zone
  • Chased 31 times
  • Chase % - 17.9%

He cut his Chase % in half. Essentially, Altuve went from chasing about as often as Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to chasing about as often as teammate Alex Bregman. Altuve's Hard Hit % in the 2020 postseason was 41%, a 7% improvement on his regular season mark. It makes sense, as pitchers are forced to come to hitters and give them pitches they can do more damage with if they chase less often. It resulted in a postseason where he slashed .375/.500/.729 with five homers and walked more than he struck out (11 BB vs. 8 K).

Altuve also had some indicators of bad luck that made his regular season numbers look worse than they really should have been. He had a .250 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which is a .053 point drop from last season, and it's .084 below his career mark. His .230 xBA (Expected Batting Average) isn't great, but it's still a touch better than the .219 he finished with. Similarly, his .352 xSLG isn't great, but it's a little better than the .344 SLG he actually recorded. Altuve, for his entire career, has outperformed his expected statistics. Altuve has outperformed his xBA in every season since Statcast was adopted (2015). He's outperformed his xSLG in all but one season. That doesn't mean Altuve has been perpetually lucky and that luck finally turned, it means that a "normal" Altuve will outperform those metrics, and it was unlucky this year that he didn't.

Some people may be concerned that Altuve is losing some athleticism now that he's on the wrong side of 30. There aren't any signs of him losing a step. His 28.4 ft/s average sprint speed is just 0.2 ft/s worse than last year. It's better than 2017 and 2018, and it's tied with 2015 and 2016. He's the same runner he's always been. Altuve was in the 89th percentile in MLB in sprint speed. Altuve was the second fastest player on the Astros, just 0.2 ft/s behind Myles Straw.

Altuve isn't over the hill yet. He proved in the postseason that he's still an elite hitter when he's on his game. As long as he fixes the issues he had with expanding the zone in 2020, he should be back to the Altuve of old for the entirety of 2021.

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The Texans will look to get back on track this Sunday against the Colts. Composite Getty Image.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are looking for answers after their passing game couldn’t get going in a loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Houston’s passing attack had been a strength all season, and the Texans ranked fifth in yards passing per game through their first six games. But on Sunday at Lambeau Field, Stroud was limited to a career-low 86 yards in the 24-22 loss, which snapped a three-game winning streak.

Stroud was 10 of 21 and didn’t have a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The second-year player was under duress for much of the day and was sacked four times and hit seven other times.

“We have to go back to the drawing board and see what those issues were,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “As we watch the film, we’ll see what happened, starting for me the communication and just guys being on the details of the job.”

The Texans scored a season-high 41 points in a win over New England a week earlier in which Stroud threw a season-best three touchdown passes despite being without star receiver Nico Collins.

They were unable to replicate that success Sunday with Collins out for the second of at least four games after a hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve.

Stefon Diggs led the team with five receptions against the Packers, but they only amounted to 23 yards. Tank Dell, who the Texans expected to step up with Collins out, was targeted four times but didn’t have a catch.

Stroud discussed the importance of getting Dell more involved in the offense.

“We have to find a way to try and get him the rock early and often and then go from there,” he said. “It has to be a focus for us, not only just him, but the whole offense clicking early. That is really my job to get the ball out on time and to where it is supposed to go. So yeah, that definitely has to be fixed.”

Ryans spoke about his confidence is getting Dell going.

What's working

The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their last two games after they hadn’t caused any in their previous three games.

Houston scored 16 points off three turnovers Sunday. The Texans had two interceptions and recovered a fumble on a punt. In their win over the Patriots, they scored 17 points off a season-high four turnovers.

What needs help

The Texans won’t get to where they want to be this season if Stroud doesn’t get back on track. Before Sunday, last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year was averaging more than 262 yards passing a game, giving the team confidence that the problems in the passing game are fixable.

Ryans knows the line must give Stroud more time to throw and said the coaching staff will focus on improving in that area this week.

Stock up

RB Joe Mixon continued to shine Sunday in his second game back after missing three games with an ankle injury. Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, had 25 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay.

Mixon is confident the Texans will rebound this week if they quit making mistakes.

“Does it look I’m worried? I’m not worried at all,” he said. “Like I said, we got a ... good football team. At the end of the day, we are our own worst enemy.”

Stock down

Dell was unable to help Stroud get the passing game going. The second-year player had a solid rookie season with 709 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. But he hasn’t been able to build on that success this year and has just 194 yards receiving with one score in six games.

Injuries

LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion), CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) all missed Sunday’s game and it’s unclear if any of these starters can return this week.

Key number

3 — Safety Calen Bullock had his third interception Sunday to tie Dunta Robinson and Jumal Rolle for most interceptions by a rookie in franchise history through the first seven games. He leads NFL rookies in interceptions this season and is tied for third-most among all players.

Next steps

The AFC South-leading Texans (5-2) return to division play Sunday when they host the second-place Colts (4-3), who have won two in a row and four of five.

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