JOSE ALTUVE DEEP DIVE

Here's the version of Jose Altuve the Astros should expect to see in 2021

Astros Jose Altuve
Altuve was terrific in the postseason. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Jose Altuve had a similar season to his middle infield counterpart Carlos Correa. Both had subpar regular seasons at the plate before lighting it up in the postseason. Altuve is under contract through 2024, so there aren't any extension questions like there are for Correa, but Altuve's performance is vital to the Astros future success. Which version of Altuve is real? The regular season one or the postseason one?

Hard Hit % - 33.3%

Barrel % - 4.6%

K% - 18.6%

BB% - 8.1%

Chase % - 35.2%

(Above numbers from 2020)

There are a few statistical changes for Altuve in 2020 from past seasons. First, his Barrel % dropped from 8.1% to 4.6%. That would be his lowest Barrel % since 2015 (3.1%), which was the last season before Altuve began a swing overhaul to start working more uphill and drive the ball more. Altuve had established himself as a star by then, but he was hardly a home run threat, and he relied more on his speed.

Next, his Chase % increased to 35.2%. That was a 5.2% increase from 2019 and 2018, when he had exactly 30% marks both times. Again, it was the highest his Chase % has been since 2015, when it was 34.1%. However, Altuve made contact on those swings 79.7% of the time. In 2020, he made contact on chase swings just 67.3% of the time. Altuve has a reputation as a good bad ball hitter, but he's gotten worse and worse at that the older he's gotten. Is it because of age? No. It's because of swing change.

Look at the evolution of Altuve's swing from '14 to '17. In '14 and '15, Altuve clearly swung downhill. He's not thinking about driving the ball whatsoever; he's just trying to put the bat on the ball and find a hole. While '16 & '17 are also ground balls, the swings are completely different. In the latter two swings, he's working more uphill, his bat enters the zone at a more vertical angle, and he's trying to drive the baseball.

The swing evolution is a good thing. It's why Altuve is a better overall hitter now than he was then. It just means that he isn't able to do as much with those pitches off the plate. He has to wait for a ball he can drive.

Year

Chase %

Chase Contact %

Slugging %

2015

34.1%

79.7%

.459

2016

30.5%

75.1%

.531

2017

31.8%

72.3%

.547

2018

30%

70.3%

.451

2019

30%

68.6%

.550

2020

35.2%

67.3%

.344

The outliers here are 2018 and 2020. Remember, Altuve was playing on a bad knee for a good portion of 2018, and that played the biggest factor in the dip in power production. In 2020, it's the chase rate and all the other factors of a COVID season.

So how did Altuve turn around his performance in the postseason? He started chasing less. Postseason splits aren't provided for those statistics, so I went through each postseason game and tallied his discipline. Here are the results:

  • Saw 173 pitches outside the strike zone
  • Chased 31 times
  • Chase % - 17.9%

He cut his Chase % in half. Essentially, Altuve went from chasing about as often as Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to chasing about as often as teammate Alex Bregman. Altuve's Hard Hit % in the 2020 postseason was 41%, a 7% improvement on his regular season mark. It makes sense, as pitchers are forced to come to hitters and give them pitches they can do more damage with if they chase less often. It resulted in a postseason where he slashed .375/.500/.729 with five homers and walked more than he struck out (11 BB vs. 8 K).

Altuve also had some indicators of bad luck that made his regular season numbers look worse than they really should have been. He had a .250 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which is a .053 point drop from last season, and it's .084 below his career mark. His .230 xBA (Expected Batting Average) isn't great, but it's still a touch better than the .219 he finished with. Similarly, his .352 xSLG isn't great, but it's a little better than the .344 SLG he actually recorded. Altuve, for his entire career, has outperformed his expected statistics. Altuve has outperformed his xBA in every season since Statcast was adopted (2015). He's outperformed his xSLG in all but one season. That doesn't mean Altuve has been perpetually lucky and that luck finally turned, it means that a "normal" Altuve will outperform those metrics, and it was unlucky this year that he didn't.

Some people may be concerned that Altuve is losing some athleticism now that he's on the wrong side of 30. There aren't any signs of him losing a step. His 28.4 ft/s average sprint speed is just 0.2 ft/s worse than last year. It's better than 2017 and 2018, and it's tied with 2015 and 2016. He's the same runner he's always been. Altuve was in the 89th percentile in MLB in sprint speed. Altuve was the second fastest player on the Astros, just 0.2 ft/s behind Myles Straw.

Altuve isn't over the hill yet. He proved in the postseason that he's still an elite hitter when he's on his game. As long as he fixes the issues he had with expanding the zone in 2020, he should be back to the Altuve of old for the entirety of 2021.

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The injuries keep piling up for Houston.Composite Getty Image.

The Astros didn’t leave Seattle with a series win, but they may have gained something just as important: a reminder that resilience still runs deep in this group.

After a grueling extra-inning loss on Saturday, one that included the loss of Isaac Paredes to a hamstring injury, Houston regrouped on Sunday and hammered the Mariners 11-3. Christian Walker provided the turning point with a much-needed go-ahead home run in the sixth inning, while Taylor Trammell added a two-run double and a solo shot of his own. With Chas McCormick back from the injured list but still finding his footing, Trammell is quickly making his case as the best option in center field moving forward.

Manager Joe Espada continues to juggle a lineup that’s been in constant flux. Rookie Cam Smith, who had a clutch two-run double in Sunday’s win, has struggled as of late, going just 2-for his last 24. While his ability to get hits in clutch situations has been extremely valuable, the lack of a consistent spot in the batting order may be taking its toll. Giving Smith a stable home in the cleanup spot, even temporarily, might be a helpful reset.

Then again, the cleanup role hasn’t been kind to everyone.

 

Walker has been markedly less effective when hitting fourth this season, a trend that continues despite his strong Sunday performance. Sometimes, the data is clear: the four-hole might not be for him. He's literally been the worst cleanup option in baseball this season. Hit him fifth.

Behind the plate, Victor Caratini continues to impress, while Yainer Diaz is back in a cold stretch. Since the break, Diaz is just 1-for-14, raising questions about his timing and confidence as the summer grind deepens.

On the mound, the biggest developments are happening off the field. Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti both completed three-inning rehab outings with Double-A Corpus Christi, while Luis Garcia threw two innings in a rehab start with Low-A Fayetteville. The trio’s return could mark a major turning point for the Astros, especially as Lance McCullers continues to struggle in his own comeback. McCullers lasted just 2 2/3 innings in Saturday’s loss, allowing four runs and showing little of the form that once made him one of the rotation’s anchors.

There’s been hesitancy to replace McCullers with someone like Arrighetti while he’s still building back arm strength, but the argument grows thinner each time McCullers falters. If healthy, even a three- or four-inning version of Javier or Arrighetti could give Houston more consistency at the back of the rotation.

Despite the weekend loss, the Astros still hold one of the best offenses in baseball, second in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 11th in slugging. The pitching staff remains stout, ranking sixth in ERA and second in WHIP. This team is far from unraveling.

With reinforcements on the way and a lineup that’s still capable of putting up crooked numbers, the Astros aren’t panicking. If anything, Sunday’s blowout win showed they’re ready to weather whatever’s next.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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