PEDAL TO THE METAL

Here's why reaching this critical milestone is vital for the Houston Astros

Astros Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
The Astros still have plenty of work to do. Composite image by Jack Brame.
altuve-bregman

As the Houston Astros continue to battle with the New York Yankees for the best record in the American League and the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets for the best record in the league overall, it's no question they deserve their spot in the top five of MLB's power rankings. They continue to maintain a double-digit lead over the Mariners in the AL West, with a strong chance that they'll lock up the division with plenty of time to spare in the regular season.

At 71-40, they only need to win 29 of the remaining 51 games to reach 100 wins, making it the fourth time in the last five full seasons to accomplish that feat. According to Fangraphs, they have a 100% chance to make the playoffs, a 34.6% chance to make it to the World Series, and a 15.7% chance (third-highest odds behind the Dodgers and Mets) to win it. Yet, even still, some of the team's recent losses are a reminder that there is no room to relax, or worse, slump, down the final stretch.

Don't let the schedule fool you

When looking at the schedule and mapping out how the Astros could get those 29 wins to reach triple digits, there are a lot of soft spots where the team should be able to string together plenty of wins. They have a combined 20 games remaining against the Rangers, A's, and Angels, whom they have gone a combined 24-13 against so far in 2022.

That didn't stop a surprising three-game sweep by Oakland against these Astros at the end of July, dropping those three, which paved the way towards a 7-8 record in their last fifteen games. When not facing division foes, the Astros have several series against teams that will be fighting for Wild Card Spots like the White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and surprisingly, the Orioles.

So while the overall strength of the schedule might not be that daunting, the last thing the Astros need heading into the playoffs, where momentum is paramount, is to have had the chance to power into October with over 100 wins but instead struggle to stay dominant.

Getting the batting order back in order

What has been interesting in the recent stretch of games is that the offense has mostly told the story of their games. On the pitching side, in the current 7-8 game stretch, Houston's pitching staff averaged 3.9 runs per game in losses and an even 2.0 runs in wins. The offense, meanwhile, has a much wider variance, with 2.25 runs scored on average in defeats and 6.57 runs in victories.

They lost by a combined 13 runs in the eight losses, with several one-run losses in that mix. In terms of run differential, in losses, they averaged losing by just 1.63 runs while winning by an average of 4.57 runs. What does all this mean? It means that when they've won, it's been on big nights by the offense, and when they've lost, it's been in games they could've won with a few more clutch hits.

Losing Michael Brantley to the IL since June 26th has undoubtedly hurt the lineup, no question. Still, after the trade deadline acquisitions of Trey Mancini and Christian Vazquez, you would hope the Astros will find ways to get back to a more consistent dominance at the plate than they have shown in the last couple of weeks.

Keep the arms fresh and in the zone

Speaking of the deals the Astros made at the deadline, one move that will probably prove influential as the playoffs near is their trade which sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta with lefty reliever Will Smith coming back. Once you get into the playoffs, you certainly don't need a plethora of starters, but having depth at the position in the grueling parts of the season has its perks.

Now, they will form a typical five-man rotation with Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy slotting in every five days, give or take with off days. The change may not be an issue as long as they can continue at their impressive pace, especially if they choose to bring Lance McCullers Jr. back into a starting role once he's ready to rejoin the team. But, they now find themselves with a small margin of safety should a starter miss any time.

That being said, with Verlander at the top of this rotation building his case for another Cy Young and Framber Valdez's league-leading 19 quality starts in 2022 behind him, it feels as though you are nearly guaranteed a strong start two of every five days. It also means you have a pretty potent 1-2 punch for the first two games of a postseason series, which has helped the Astros go deep into October in these recent years.

It's not even the middle of August, which, in all honesty, should make it too soon to be talking about the playoffs. However, with the Astros' dominant start and middle of the year, it remains essential that they don't let things spiral to the point of needing a reset button come October.

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The Angels beat the Astros, 9-1. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images.

José Soriano pitched 6 2/3 strong innings and Logan O'Hoppe hit a pair of two-run shots to end a long home run drought and help the Los Angeles Angels beat the Houston Astros 9-1 on Saturday night.

Soriano (5-5) struck out 10 and allowed one run on three hits and three walks. He has allowed just two runs in his last three starts covering 20 2/3 innings with 28 strikeouts. He hasn't allowed a home run since April 22 — a span of 11 starts.

O’Hoppe hit his 15th homer and first since May 22 in the third inning to give the Angels a 6-0 lead. The catcher capped the scoring with his second of the game in the seventh.

Jo Adell reached with a one-out infield single off Astros rookie Brandon Walter (0-1) in the second and Luis Rengifo followed with his fourth home run for a 2-0 lead.

Nolan Schanuel was hit by a pitch and Mike Trout singled and scored from first on a double by Taylor Ward for a 4-0 lead.

Jose Altuve walked and scored on a two-out single by Christian Walker in the fourth for the Astros, but the Angels answered in their half when Zach Neto doubled with two outs and scored on Schanuel's single for a 7-1 lead.

Walter allowed seven runs on nine hits in six innings in his fourth career start.

Key moment

The Angels never looked back after Rengifo homered in the second.

Key stat

Houston is 3-2 against the Angels this season and leads the overall series 133-85. That includes a 65-45 record at Angel Stadium.

Up next

Astros rookie RHP Ryan Gusto (4-3, 4.31 ERA) will start Sunday's rubber game against Angels RHP Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 4.79).

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