PEDAL TO THE METAL

Here's why reaching this critical milestone is vital for the Houston Astros

Astros Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
The Astros still have plenty of work to do. Composite image by Jack Brame.
altuve-bregman

As the Houston Astros continue to battle with the New York Yankees for the best record in the American League and the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets for the best record in the league overall, it's no question they deserve their spot in the top five of MLB's power rankings. They continue to maintain a double-digit lead over the Mariners in the AL West, with a strong chance that they'll lock up the division with plenty of time to spare in the regular season.

At 71-40, they only need to win 29 of the remaining 51 games to reach 100 wins, making it the fourth time in the last five full seasons to accomplish that feat. According to Fangraphs, they have a 100% chance to make the playoffs, a 34.6% chance to make it to the World Series, and a 15.7% chance (third-highest odds behind the Dodgers and Mets) to win it. Yet, even still, some of the team's recent losses are a reminder that there is no room to relax, or worse, slump, down the final stretch.

Don't let the schedule fool you

When looking at the schedule and mapping out how the Astros could get those 29 wins to reach triple digits, there are a lot of soft spots where the team should be able to string together plenty of wins. They have a combined 20 games remaining against the Rangers, A's, and Angels, whom they have gone a combined 24-13 against so far in 2022.

That didn't stop a surprising three-game sweep by Oakland against these Astros at the end of July, dropping those three, which paved the way towards a 7-8 record in their last fifteen games. When not facing division foes, the Astros have several series against teams that will be fighting for Wild Card Spots like the White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and surprisingly, the Orioles.

So while the overall strength of the schedule might not be that daunting, the last thing the Astros need heading into the playoffs, where momentum is paramount, is to have had the chance to power into October with over 100 wins but instead struggle to stay dominant.

Getting the batting order back in order

What has been interesting in the recent stretch of games is that the offense has mostly told the story of their games. On the pitching side, in the current 7-8 game stretch, Houston's pitching staff averaged 3.9 runs per game in losses and an even 2.0 runs in wins. The offense, meanwhile, has a much wider variance, with 2.25 runs scored on average in defeats and 6.57 runs in victories.

They lost by a combined 13 runs in the eight losses, with several one-run losses in that mix. In terms of run differential, in losses, they averaged losing by just 1.63 runs while winning by an average of 4.57 runs. What does all this mean? It means that when they've won, it's been on big nights by the offense, and when they've lost, it's been in games they could've won with a few more clutch hits.

Losing Michael Brantley to the IL since June 26th has undoubtedly hurt the lineup, no question. Still, after the trade deadline acquisitions of Trey Mancini and Christian Vazquez, you would hope the Astros will find ways to get back to a more consistent dominance at the plate than they have shown in the last couple of weeks.

Keep the arms fresh and in the zone

Speaking of the deals the Astros made at the deadline, one move that will probably prove influential as the playoffs near is their trade which sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta with lefty reliever Will Smith coming back. Once you get into the playoffs, you certainly don't need a plethora of starters, but having depth at the position in the grueling parts of the season has its perks.

Now, they will form a typical five-man rotation with Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy slotting in every five days, give or take with off days. The change may not be an issue as long as they can continue at their impressive pace, especially if they choose to bring Lance McCullers Jr. back into a starting role once he's ready to rejoin the team. But, they now find themselves with a small margin of safety should a starter miss any time.

That being said, with Verlander at the top of this rotation building his case for another Cy Young and Framber Valdez's league-leading 19 quality starts in 2022 behind him, it feels as though you are nearly guaranteed a strong start two of every five days. It also means you have a pretty potent 1-2 punch for the first two games of a postseason series, which has helped the Astros go deep into October in these recent years.

It's not even the middle of August, which, in all honesty, should make it too soon to be talking about the playoffs. However, with the Astros' dominant start and middle of the year, it remains essential that they don't let things spiral to the point of needing a reset button come October.

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Cubs defeat Astros, 4-3. Composite Getty Image.

Dansby Swanson hit a three-run homer during Chicago's four-run first inning and the short-handed Cubs beat the Houston Astros 4-3 on Wednesday night.

Playing without Cody Bellinger, Chicago used Swanson's big swing and a solid start by Jameson Taillon to earn its second straight win. It will try to sweep the three-game set against the struggling Astros on Thursday.

Taillon (2-0) allowed two runs, one earned, and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings on a chilly evening at Wrigley Field. The right-hander struck out four and walked two in his second start since he began the season on the injured list with a back strain.

“Before that back injury, I just really liked where we were at,” Taillon said, “and I feel like we were able to use that downtime as like, let’s stay on the straight and narrow, stay on the right path.”

Houston lost for the seventh time in eight games. It has scored a total of 21 runs during the slide.

Manager Joe Espada tried to spark his sputtering lineup by moving Alex Bregman into the second spot, between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. But the Astros went 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position and left 10 runners on base.

Altuve opened the ninth with a drive to left against HĂ©ctor Neris for his sixth homer. But Neris retired Bregman, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker for his second save in three opportunities.

Bellinger was placed on the 10-day injured list with two fractured ribs on his right side. The center fielder got hurt during the series opener Tuesday night.

There was no word just yet on a timetable for his return.

“The doctors will come up with a plan,” manager Craig Counsell said, “and, like everything, he’s got to get symptom-free first and we’ll go from there.”

Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ singled for Chicago in the first against Spencer Arrighetti. Michael Busch delivered a sacrifice fly and Christopher Morel walked before Swanson hit a two-out drive to left for his third homer.

The Cubs also got off to a fast start Tuesday night, jumping on the Astros for five runs in the first in a 7-2 victory.

“We’ve just been pretty committed to our plans coming in and put some good swings on some balls and that’s just a testament to the work that the guys are doing in the cage,” Swanson said.

Arrighetti (0-3) was pulled with two outs in the fourth. The right-hander allowed seven hits, struck out seven and walked two in his third major league start.

TRAINER'S ROOM

Astros: LHP Framber Valdez (elbow soreness) threw about 40 pitches during a bullpen session. “He came off the mound feeling good,” Espada said. Valdez remains in line to start this weekend during a two-game series against Colorado in Mexico City. … RHP Cristian Javier (neck discomfort) played catch back in Houston. “The doctor saw him, and it looks like he's improving,” Espada said.

Cubs: RHP Kyle Hendricks is taking pills to help with the inflammation from his low back strain. He also is getting treatment and playing catch to help keep his arm moving. He isn't too concerned about the injury. “It just made sense to give it the time to settle down, get out of there and give myself a chance to get back to 100 percent,” he said. ... OF Seiya Suzuki (right oblique strain) has resumed baseball activities.

UP NEXT

Houston right-hander Justin Verlander (1-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his second start since he missed the beginning of the season because of shoulder inflammation. Right-hander Javier Assad (2-0, 2.11 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago.

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