THE PALLILOG

Changes have already begun for Houston Astros scuffling offense

Changes have already begun for Houston Astros scuffling offense
Dusty Baker finally moved Kyle Tucker ahead of Yuli Gurriel in the lineup. Composite image by Jack Brame.

The hiccup of losing two out of three at home to Seattle this week aside, the Astros roll merrily along with a beyond robust nine game lead atop the American League West. That is thanks to their own fine play and the utter implosion of the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels’ franchise record 14 game losing streak cost manager Joe Maddon his job and saw the Halos plunge from 27-17 and just one game behind the Astros, to 27-31 and nine and a half back. Basically, the AL West race looks over with the Astros to win it for the fifth time in six years. Still, the Astros are no unstoppable juggernaut. They’ve been whipping up (to their credit) on an amazingly soft schedule. There are issues that should be addressed. As covered last week, Yuli Gurriel has played so far this season as if washed up. The Maldonado/Castro catching combo continues to be worse than sub-pathetic at the plate. General Manager James Click should be pursuing upgrades at both spots. Then there’s the more perplexing plight of Alex Bregman.

At the end of the 2019 season the then 25-year-old Bregman had booked the early phase of what could viably project as a Hall of Fame career. No Astro has ever been better over his first full three seasons in the Major Leagues. In 2017 he merely helped the Astros win the World Series, highlighted by the game winning hit in the incredible game five against the Dodgers. Bregman’s 2018 was tremendous with him earning a first All-Star spot and finishing fifth in American League Most Valuable Player Award voting. He was the most swaggering Stro. Remember his thing of getting into the dugout after a home run trot and doing a snap head turn and stare into a dugout camera? 2019 was even better with another All-Star spot and a runner-up finish to Mike Trout for AL MVP. Now when Bregman looks into a mirror he could understandably be thinking “I'm only 28. What the heck has happened to me?”

It's not as if this Alex Bregman is an absolutely lousy player, but he is currently closer to one than rating with the elite third basemen of the game (presently Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Rafael Devers, and maybe Austin Riley). This is the third straight season with Bregman’s decline in status a simple fact. He had hamstring problems in both 2020 and 2021, and wrist surgery last November. If there is some ongoing cumulative toll from his injuries, that’s the way it goes. Bregman has been healthy so far this year, missing just two games. He just hasn’t been good. “It’s still early” isn’t true anymore. He’d never been this unproductive for two straight months. A .220 batting average with underwhelming power numbers add up to a soft .377 slugging percentage. About three weeks ago Bregman thought he’d identified a mechanical flaw in his swing. Since then he’s been worse. Bregman’s major offensive positive this year is he draws a lot of walks. So while his .220 batting average stinks, his .339 on base percentage is higher than Jeremy Pena’s (average .277, OBP .330) and fairly close to Jose Altuve’s (average .280, OBP .355).

The way the Astros backloaded the five year 100 million dollar extension Bregman signed before the 2019 season, they owe him 28 and a half million dollars cash on the barrelhead in both 2023 and 2024. Ouch. A dramatic turnaround for the better could happen, but that one is inevitable is silly. No doubt plenty will note that Bregman has not been a big-time player since the cheating scandal came to light. Part of that is you reap what you sow. However, there was no finding of Astros' illegal activity in 2019, which was Bregman's peak season.

Dusty Baker occasionally does some exasperating things with his batting order. EVER batting Niko Goodrum second or third, or Jose Siri at the top of the order leap to mind. A positive this week: he finally moved Kyle Tucker ahead of Gurriel in the lineup. Ideally Bregman would be dropped to sixth or seventh in the order, but with the sinkholes that are Gurriel, the catchers, and on balance the centerfielder production (Chas McCormick not so bad, Siri yuck), Dusty is not blessed with obvious solutions. Pena is having a terrific rookie season but has cooled off the last couple weeks.

Again, James Click should be in the market for improvements. Other than Jake Meyers perhaps boosting output from center field, internal help is almost certainly not there for this year. Top Astros’ catching prospect Korey Lee is batting .207 at Triple-A Sugar Land. Lee can get his shot in 2023. Cubs’ catcher/free agent-to-be Willson Contreras would be a fabulous rental and massive upgrade. Nationals’ switch-hitting first baseman Josh Bell would be an interesting pursuit, also a free agent-to-be but a re-sign candidate with the 38-year-old Gurriel’s contract up after this season and no heir apparent in the organization. The Astros’ farm system is not strong, but has enough that Click can and better competitively bid on at least one significant move.

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The Astros play their next 10 games at Daikin Park. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

Two seasons ago the Astros were oddly feeble at home and warriors on the road. Now, this season is headed nowhere if they can't pick it up away from Daikin Park. In the first week of April, the Astros won their initial road series of the season. It will be June before they win another. Well, presumably June. Approaching seven weeks since they took a series at Minnesota, it's now seven consecutive road stops without a series victory. In six straight three-game road series the Astros have lost two out of three, including at the laughingstock White Sox. They did split the four-game set in Arlington against the Rangers last weekend. The Astros’ road record is 10-15.

Now they're home for 10 in a row, starting with four versus the team the Astros look up at in the American League West standings. The Seattle Mariners hit town three and a half games ahead of the Astros. Last June, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 10 games and wound up winning the division. Expecting a sequel as good as an original usually is not a good idea. Winning this series is certainly not a necessity given the season still only reaches its one-third completed mark this coming Tuesday. Still, at least getting a split is advised, or the Astros are looking at falling five and half games off the lead should the Mariners win three out of four, seven and a half back should Seattle sweep. But flip the script. If the Astros sweep, they go to bed Sunday night leading the division. Taking three out four would be just fine, and have the Astros within a game and a half of first.

The Astros are carrying a payroll roughly 75 million dollars larger than that of the Mariners. The M’s have a farm system (currently one of the highest rated among the franchises) vastly superior to what the Astros have (one of the worst systems in the sport). So if Mariners’ ownership opted to loosen the purse strings in pursuit of in season talent infusions, the M’s are way better positioned to make an impact move than are the Astros. Just remember, even if the Mariners are going to pull away, the wild card picture does not have three teams that are obviously ultimately better than the Astros.

Positive vibes only

If you're into good luck charms, dig up a four-leaf clover or find a rabbit's foot, then cross your fingers where Ronel Blanco is concerned. It is quite an ominous sign that the Astros sent Blanco back to Houston a day early after he reported soreness in his pitching elbow. I mean, who would be surprised to hear that Blanco is done for the season a la Hayden Wesneski. It's increasingly essential that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez hold up physically and qualitatively the rest of the way. That Brown had his worst start of the season Wednesday in Tampa is no big deal. It's called being human. The Rays torching him for three home runs and five runs in five innings spiked Brown's earned run average all the way up to 2.04. Ooooh. Brown has been fantastic.
The Astros underestimated how long Spencer Arrighetti would be out. Shocking! Some boost from him seems necessary. There is only so much the Astros can reasonably hope for out of Lance McCullers, and the likes of Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter. That either Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia makes it back by, say, August is a best-case scenario. Then it would be hope about level of performance. The Astros hold no monopoly on serial pitching injuries. The Mariners have lost three-fifths of their stout starting rotation. George Kirby making his first 2025 start Thursday is a boost for them. Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are both still out.

Heart of the matter

Among the core frustrations for Astros’ fans are the continued crummy overall performances of Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. If it turns out that the 35-year-old Altuve has truly fallen over the hill as opposed to just enduring an extended deep slump that would be an obvious bummer. The same with the 34-year-old Walker though there is no emotional tug for Astros’ fans with Walker as there is with Altuve. Yainer Diaz is just 26. His regression is troubling, perhaps low-lighted by his one walk in his last 33 games played, four walks for the season in 170 plate appearances. That’s pathetic. Yainer, Victor Caratini, and Astros’ pitchers have collectively done a brutal job at dealing with opposition running games. The Astros have given up 62 stolen bases in 67 attempts, with one of the five caught stealings a pickoff, another a botched double steal.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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