THE PALLILOG
A way-too-soon celebration is already in order for the Houston Astros
May 31, 2022, 12:33 pm
The Astros’ schedule is really soft. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Congratulations to the Astros for wrapping up a playoff spot for the sixth year in a row! Obviously with two-thirds of the season still to be played there’s nothing official about it and it's a bit early for a magic number countdown, but we’re just past Memorial Day and the Astros are basically a cinch. It remains to be seen whether the Angels will be legitimate season long challengers for the American League West title (doubtful), but even should the Halos swipe the division crown it would take a string of horrific developments for the Astros to not land a Wild Card berth, especially with there now being three of them in each league.
With the owners watering down the postseason field for additional revenue, the third-best division winner in each league now has to survive a best-of-three series against the third wild card qualifier. An awful team can take down a great team in a two out of three, so the third wild card taking out the third-best division champ would be no big upset. The third division champ is the home team for all games vs. that third Wild Card but that is no insurmountable obstacle, so the Astros have a clear objective of not just winning another division title, but securing one of the two best division winning records in the AL.
It’s not quite ironic, but for all the sturm and drang and wrongdoing involving the Astros and trash cans a few years ago, it’s at least amusing that the Astros are in the midst of an epic stretch of sanitation engineering. They are taking out the trash left and right. Since finishing off a sweep of the Twins in Minneapolis May 12, the Astros’ schedule has been an absolute marshmallow and will remain so until the back half of June. When the Astros get home from their current road trip they will have taken the field 22 consecutive games against an opponent carrying a losing record. Then they’ll quite likely play at least nine more against losers! Next week’s homestand features three games vs. the Mariners and three vs. the Marlins. Then the Astros pop north for three with the Rangers, who while the Astros roll toward postseason number six in a row, are on target for their sixth straight losing season. Home from Arlington the Astros play the White Sox who are presently 23-23, so conceivably the Astros could make it 34 straight games vs. losing teams. I don’t know what the record is (get cracking Elias Sports Bureau!) but 34 is quite a number. The Mets are here June 21 so at the latest that would end the streak.
The Astros don’t/won’t win every series they play against crappola competition, but they’re simply vastly better than the majority of teams they face. Their measuring stick is the good teams, the kind of teams they’ll face in October.
What's going on with Yuli?
While the Astros are rolling merrily along it’s not all peaches and cream of course. The offense has been a mediocrity. The putrid catcher combo plate of Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro wasn’t expected to be good. Yuli Gurriel on the other hand… La Piña has been El Limón so far in 2022. Gurriel was wretched in 2020, but that 60 game short COVID season produced a lot of eyebrow-raising stats that could be asterisked. Jose Altuve’s performance was god-awful in 2020 too. Both were excellent in 2021. Altuve remains excellent in 2022. Gurriel has fallen off a cliff in what is his final season under contract. He’s fallen, will he get up? Yuli turns 38 next week. It’s plausible that Father Time has made a big move.
Gurriel’s plate discipline has eroded badly this year. Before winning the American League batting title at .319 last season, Gurriel three times came close to hitting .300 without doing it (.299, .291, and .298). No doubt a big part of the leap last year was swing selection. Gurriel drew 59 walks last season. Previously he’d never drawn more than 37. So far this season Gurriel has walked a woefully puny seven times. He’s striking out at a higher rate than in any prior season. He just has not made consistent good contact with the baseball. Even with the Astros lineup diminished elsewhere, the clock has to be ticking toward Dusty Baker stopping slotting Gurriel fifth in the batting order. Right Dusty? There is time to turn it around, but know that since joining the Astros late in the 2016 season, Gurriel had never gone consecutive months batting below .256. April this year: .224. May: .213.
This Astros’ squad clearly has World Series winning potential but it is not an unstoppable super team that should play a pat hand. If Gurriel doesn’t pick it up significantly, General Manager James Click should get after landing an upgrade for the stretch drive, postseason, and beyond.
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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