NAILED IT!
Why the timing is just right for Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros
Feb 17, 2023, 11:58 am
It's time for Framber to get his bag. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
What is the holdup, better why is there a holdup in the Astros signing pitcher Framber Valdez to a long-term contract?
Sure Justin Verlander won the American League Cy Young Award and was the ace of the Astros staff last season. But who was the Astros best pitcher down the stretch through the World Series? Who’d you rather have for 2023 and especially beyond – Verlander or Valdez?
Valdez had, by any measure you choose, an absolutely fantastic season in 2022. He finished with a 17-6 record and 2.82 earned run average. But, as Ron Popeil would say, wait there’s more!
Valdez made 31 starts and led the American League with 201.1 innings pitched. He led the league with three complete games. He made 25 consecutive quality starts, a Major League record for a single season. That’s a workhorse by modern baseball standards. It’s nothing new for Valdez, he also led all of baseball in innings pitched in 2020.
When the chips were down, Valdez was at his best. He won two games in last year’s World Series, including the critical Game 2 after the Phillies won the opener. Then he slammed the door shut with a 2-hit performance over six innings in the Game 6 clincher. He has a career 7-2 postseason record.
By comparison, Verlander got a no decision in Game 1, although surrendering five runs in five innings. He eventually earned his first World Series win, giving up four hits and four walks over five innings in Game 5.
Valdez has a rubber arm. He looks like he’s playing catch in the backyard when he pitches. If it’s his day to throw, he’s on the mound.
Last month, the Astros signed Valdez to a one-year, $6.8 million deal to avoid arbitration. He may be the best bargain in baseball. There have been reports this month that the Astros were putting the finishing touches on a long-term deal to keep Valdez in Houston. However, Valdez’s agent squashed those rumors on Tuesday, saying there’s been no discussion between the Astros and Valdez about an extension.
Why not? Keeping Valdez in an Astros uniform for years to come should be job No. 1 for owner Jim Crane and general manager Dana Brown. It’s important that Valdez knows the Astros are committed to him. We want him to be happy in Houston.
Of course $6.8 million isn’t exactly chump change, but you can make an argument that we’re talking about the most reliable pitcher in the American League. Right now, if you had to win one game, who’d you rather have on the bump? I’d take my chances with Valdez.
Yes, the Astros loathe to offer stupid money, long-term deals. But five years for Valdez might be a safe investment. He’s 29 years old and signed for 2023. A five-year extension would bring him to 35 years old. That’s the meat of a pitcher’s career.
As that famous baseball analyst Goldilocks would say, Framber Valdez is not too old, not too young, he’s just right.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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