THE PALLILOG
How the Altuve experiment embodies the Astros’ changing philosophies
Feb 20, 2025, 3:52 pm
THE PALLILOG
With overnight temperatures dipping into the 20s this week in Houston, it seems good timing to have the warm thoughts of baseball being back, at least spring training games. The Astros have more shakiness about their squad than they have had in nearly a decade, but the Astros still have a nucleus of an American League West contender. With the exits of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, it’s just a notably different nucleus than in recent years.
Jose Altuve is the last remaining mainstay of the greatest era in Astros’ history, and he is one of the biggest stories of their preseason as he for the time being at least is left fielder Jose Altuve. By every indication he is embracing the challenge with class and energy. The obvious impetus for test driving the move is the soon-to-be 35 years old Altuve’s defensive deterioration. It can be tough for the player himself to notice that his range has declined. The voiding of defensive shifts after the 2022 season shined a brighter light on Altuve’s D decline. Still, last season Altuve made his ninth All-Star team and despite also displaying some offensive decline remained the clearly best offensive second baseman in the American League. It’s part of the tradeoff of reducing the defensive workload on Yordan Alvarez, and hoping to upgrade defensively at second with some combo of Mauricio Dubon, Brendan Rodgers, or other.
The natural comparison in Astros’ history of a franchise icon losing his defensive spot and making a late-career position change is to Craig Biggio. Biggio’s All-Star days were behind him when the Astros moved him from second base to center field for the 2003 season because of the signing of free agent Jeff Kent. It spoke to the athlete Biggio was that at 37 years old he could make the move at all. After not quite a season and a half in center, Biggio moved to left when the Astros traded for young stud center fielder Carlos Beltran. Both Kent and Beltran left in free agency after the 2004 season, and Biggio moved back to second for the final three seasons of his career.
Second basemen are often second basemen and not shortstops in part because of their throwing arms. Altuve’s throwing arm will be an issue in left field. Even though Daikin Park has the smallest square footage of fair territory in Major League Baseball because of its left to left-center field dimensions, Altuve’s arm will be a liability. In understandably wanting to put an optimistic spin on things, manager Joe Espada and general manager Dana Brown have talked of how Altuve will be able to get momentum behind throws more so than when playing second. That’s true when camping under a fly ball in the outfield. That is not true when Altuve will have to cut off balls hit toward the left field line, or cutting across into the left-center field gap. There will be balls that would be singles when hit to other left fielders that will become doubles when Altuve has to play them, and baserunners will go from first to third and second to home much more readily. As an infielder Altuve has always been outstanding at running down pop-ups, so there is reason to believe he’ll be solid tracking fly balls in the outfield. However, the reality of a guy who is five feet six inches tall (in spikes) is that there will be the occasional fly ball or line drive that is beyond his grasp that more “normal” sized outfielders would grab. Try to name a good outfielder who stood shorter than five-foot-nine...
Here’s one: Hall of Famer Tim Raines (also originally a second baseman) was (and presumably still is!) five-foot-eight.
Here's another: Hall of Famer Hack Wilson was five-six. Four times he led the National League in home runs topped by a whopping 56 in 1930 when he set the still standing record of 191 runs batted in for a single season.
And another: Hall of Famer five-foot-four “Wee” Willie Keeler. Who last played in 1910.
Just a bit outside
Another element new to the Grapefruit League in Florida (and Cactus League in Arizona) this year is the limited use of what Major League Baseball is calling the Automated Ball Strike System. The ABS is likely coming to regular season games next year. This spring will be our first look at its use in big league games. Home plate umpires making ball and strike calls will not be going the way of the dinosaur. Challenges can be made until a team is wrong twice. Significantly, only the batter, pitcher, or catcher can challenge and must do so within two seconds of the pitch being caught. No dugout input allowed. No time to watch a replay.
The Astros’ spring park in West Palm Beach is not among the 13 facilities set up with ABS cameras. That seems silly given that the Astros share the place with the Washington Nationals. More use would be gotten from, and more data collected there than will be from a park with half the spring games played in it.
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The Houston Astros took a step in the right direction this week, securing a hard-fought series win over the Kansas City Royals with a strong combination of pitching and timely hitting. While the offense still isn’t firing on all cylinders, recent signs suggest the bats may finally be waking up—albeit slower than hoped.
Over the past seven days, Houston ranks 6th in OPS, 7th in slugging, and 10th in runs scored across MLB—a noticeable jump from their underwhelming season-long ranks of 13th, 18th, and 19th in those categories, respectively. But perhaps the biggest concern remains their lack of home run power. The Astros are just 23rd in home runs over the past week and 24th on the season. That’s a major problem for a team that has historically relied on slugging to fuel its October pushes.
Only two Astros hitters currently boast an OPS over .800: Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes. Peña’s breakout season has been one of the few bright spots for Houston’s offensive staff, while Paredes continues to deliver consistent production that aligns with his career norms. But beyond those two, it’s been a struggle.
Christian Walker has emerged as the biggest red flag in the lineup. After a hitless series with 7 strikeouts against Kansas City’s tough rotation, Walker’s strikeout total climbed to fifth-most in the American League with 50. His offensive regression now spans over a quarter of the season, drawing troubling comparisons to José Abreu’s disastrous 2023 and 2024 campaigns.
And he’s not alone. José Altuve, a longtime engine for Houston’s offense, is in a prolonged slump of his own—slashing just .220/.268/.297 over his last 30 games. Combined with Walker’s woes, the middle of the order has become a black hole that may soon force a change.
With 10 of their next 13 games coming against division rivals, the Astros must decide quickly whether it’s time for a lineup shakeup. Dropping Walker in the order feels increasingly necessary. And unless Altuve finds his rhythm, manager Joe Espada may need to explore new options in the two-spot to spark the offense.
The potential return of Yordan Alvarez could help remedy the power problem. When healthy, Alvarez is one of baseball’s premier sluggers and could be the missing piece that lifts Houston’s home run totals and extra-base hit production.
But even with Alvarez’s return looming, broader questions about the team’s hitting development persist—especially when contrasted with the pitching staff’s continued excellence. Houston's pitching coaches have consistently gotten the most out of arms, while the hitting side has seen a pattern of stagnation.
A recent reminder of that contrast comes from an unexpected source: Alex Bregman. Now thriving with the Boston Red Sox, Bregman is putting up MVP-caliber numbers after working with Boston’s hitting coaches on timing and mechanical tweaks. He credits their staff with helping him get back to his 2019 form—raising eyebrows in Houston. It’s hard not to wonder why those same adjustments never materialized under the Astros' watch.
To be fair, Jeremy Peña’s breakout could be considered a win for the current hitting coaches, but even that comes with caveats. Meanwhile, Isaac Paredes’ production isn’t a surprise—he’s done this before. And for every Peña, there are several Walkers or Abreus who join the Astros and regress at the plate.
As the Astros look to gain more ground in the AL West race, their pitching remains a strength and their offense is showing signs of life. But if the bats can’t fully turn the corner—and if the team’s approach to hitting development doesn’t evolve—the gap between Houston and the elite teams in the league may continue to grow.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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